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Interesting situation in the Aus markets at the moment.
Today the official cash rate was slashed by another 100 BP to 4.25%
http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/home-loans/features/feature-interest-
rate-dec-2/index.html
(as an aside, the majority of housing loans mortgages in Aus have
variable interest rates so rate cuts flow straight into the mortgage
belt pockets ... c.f. to other countries where fixed rates are the
norm for housing mortgages).
At the same time "falling share prices have pushed up the div yields
on some stocks to to levels not seen for decades" e.g.
Telecom NZ 16.5
National Australia Bank 14%
Transurban 12%
Telstra 9.8*
Note: examples and not recommendations.... forward yield, grossed up
for franking (Aus tax break for high income earners).
(quote and yields from the Australian Financial Review Dec 2,2008).
There are three possible scenarios, based on this:
- companies that are in trouble will cut dividends
- companies that might be heading for trouble, or who want to take
the opportunity to beef up the books, will cut dividends
- some companies will, at the least, maintain divs at previous levels
(those with little debt and/or unaffected cash flows?)
All this at a time when margin loans are cheaper than div yields!
Who said there was no such thing as a free lunch in the markets?
Anything like it in other international markets?
brian_z
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