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Correction 95 - 105
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> IMO the Japanese govt target band for the USD/Yen is 95 - 100.
>
> Lack of volatility of the Yen, immediately after Mondays bear trap,
> indicates that the all that interested in it right now.
> If it moves outside of the target band, with gusto, then some new
> impetus is driving it.
>
> I still think it is good indicator of the end of the first wave of
> leverage redemptions (the usual indicators are meaningless in a
> rampant leverage deficit environment).
>
> Commodities charts is also indicate that we are going into some
less
> volatile territory (another useful inidcator at the moment because
> leverage impaired players held their commodities to the death ..
that
> was their last card).
>
> Also, it is not all on the Hedge Funds (some would like to lay all
of
> the blame there) ..... most of the buck stops at the major
investment
> banks ... they received their first cheque from the treasury this
> week and they have been hired to administrate the bail out so all
is
> well that ends well.
>
> Chances are that some listless sideways movement is more likely
than
> another dive ... don't be caught by surprize if the US grabs the
ball
> for a short ball run, say up to 1100 or 1200 onthe SP....more
likely
> after a short rest.
>
> More deleveraging pressure is likely in the last half of the month
> but this can be overwhelmed and staved off by market optimism.
>
> The short term future for the US economy doesn't need to be as bad
as
> some economists are predicting ( hey, that is their job and they
are
> only statisticians afterall is said and done).
>
> (hope my unofficial blog has helped some ... Warren Buffet called
his
> bottom two weeks ago ... I called my last weekend ... it is all
good
> fun ... IMO the worst is over ... the caveat is being wrong is part
> of the fun).
>
> For future reference:
>
>
> - the insiders are months, days, hours ahead of their actions
> - govts, for the greater good, don't spell out all of their actions
> and sometimes act behind the scenes
> - their actions as recorded in the charts, lag behind the real game
> - the news/internet is anything from hours to days behind
> - public opinion is bloated with emotion and overshooting all of
the
> marks.
>
> Good lunk to the fund managers - it's a tough job - might as well
> relax and enjoy your first weekend for a while - hope there is more
> good weeks to come.
>
> If I am wrong there will be no point in sueing me cause I will be
> broke too.
>
> good trading
>
> brian_z
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> wrote:
> >
> > Hello,
> >
> > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
> >
> > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at
> 1.5%)
> >
> > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
> >
> > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
> Japan central bank in '90s.
> >
> > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much
> faster than FED, IMHO.
> > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD
=
> 1.0 soon
> > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
> months to come.
> >
> > Any thoughts?
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
> >
>
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