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IMO the Japanese govt target band for the USD/Yen is 95 - 100.
Lack of volatility of the Yen, immediately after Mondays bear trap,
indicates that the all that interested in it right now.
If it moves outside of the target band, with gusto, then some new
impetus is driving it.
I still think it is good indicator of the end of the first wave of
leverage redemptions (the usual indicators are meaningless in a
rampant leverage deficit environment).
Commodities charts is also indicate that we are going into some less
volatile territory (another useful inidcator at the moment because
leverage impaired players held their commodities to the death .. that
was their last card).
Also, it is not all on the Hedge Funds (some would like to lay all of
the blame there) ..... most of the buck stops at the major investment
banks ... they received their first cheque from the treasury this
week and they have been hired to administrate the bail out so all is
well that ends well.
Chances are that some listless sideways movement is more likely than
another dive ... don't be caught by surprize if the US grabs the ball
for a short ball run, say up to 1100 or 1200 onthe SP....more likely
after a short rest.
More deleveraging pressure is likely in the last half of the month
but this can be overwhelmed and staved off by market optimism.
The short term future for the US economy doesn't need to be as bad as
some economists are predicting ( hey, that is their job and they are
only statisticians afterall is said and done).
(hope my unofficial blog has helped some ... Warren Buffet called his
bottom two weeks ago ... I called my last weekend ... it is all good
fun ... IMO the worst is over ... the caveat is being wrong is part
of the fun).
For future reference:
- the insiders are months, days, hours ahead of their actions
- govts, for the greater good, don't spell out all of their actions
and sometimes act behind the scenes
- their actions as recorded in the charts, lag behind the real game
- the news/internet is anything from hours to days behind
- public opinion is bloated with emotion and overshooting all of the
marks.
Good lunk to the fund managers - it's a tough job - might as well
relax and enjoy your first weekend for a while - hope there is more
good weeks to come.
If I am wrong there will be no point in sueing me cause I will be
broke too.
good trading
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
wrote:
>
> Hello,
>
> Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
>
> Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at
1.5%)
>
> In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
>
> It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
Japan central bank in '90s.
>
> Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much
faster than FED, IMHO.
> If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD =
1.0 soon
> and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
months to come.
>
> Any thoughts?
>
> Best regards,
> Tomasz Janeczko
> amibroker.com
>
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