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I always take Roubini very seriously.
He's one of the few people who's opinion I genuinely value.
15th November is apparently a key day for hedge fund redemptions. I'm
quite sure why. Maybe that's that's a widespread closing date for
filing of redemptions.
But I think you're analysis is largely correct. Essentially EUR/JPY is
the key cross right now. Which is obviously where you end up by
looking at the USD/EUR and USD/JPY...
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> > In the end I decided that I could only concentrate on a few products
> > and they were going to be the main line futures contracts.
>
> I will probably be there too within a year or so ... narrowing the
> trading base is a process you go through ... I am letting the process
> run its course .. eventually I expect I will only trade the eS.
>
> While you are on line... since you are interested in the carry
> trade/currency relationship ... Roubini is agreeing with us (see copy
> below from the RGE Monitor site newsletter).
>
> The carry trade succumbed to bank de-leveraging and investor
> repatriation, resulting in the appreciation of carry trade funding
> currencies - the most popular being the JPY and USD. Bank de-
> leveraging has led to a shortage of these currencies, as most cross-
> border bank liabilities were denominated in them. With tighter
> lending, investors have had to unwind their carry trades to meet
> margin calls and, as asset prices adjusted to a recessionary outlook,
> to avoid further losses. U.S. and Japan provided the lion's share
> of the world's investment flows. The repatriation of U.S. and
> Japanese investor funds sapped the strength of other currencies
> versus the USD and JPY.
>
>
>
> The spread of recession and financial crisis beyond the U.S. to
> several other countries kills the appetite for foreign investments,
> driving repatriation. This leads to further currency depreciation
> in carry trade destination currencies ? especially emerging markets
> which had over-hedged or under-hedged against USD strength. A
> stronger dollar may contribute to further commodity price declines as
> countries with weaker currencies are able to purchase fewer goods.
> By the same token, weaker non-U.S. currencies may sow the seeds of
> higher inflation in countries vulnerable to imported inflation. In
> an environment where high yield alone is no longer attractive, the
> combination of slowing growth and rising inflationary pressures may
> set up emerging markets for further punishment from currency markets.
>
> FWIW a couple of new observations:
>
> - Yen and Euro kicked up a little today against the USD
> - as discussed on the weekend govts have started to intervene (AUD
> supported by RBA buying, G7 warned they will support the Yen
> - this is clouding the water a little
> - if their efforts move a little more then some speculators will get
> shaken out and prolong the counter move
>
> IMO the market is being controlled by deleveraging .. fundamentals
> are counting for anything anywhere .... US fund managers appear to be
> buying in stocks.
>
> USD/Yen and USD/Euro could be the best indicator we have right now of
> the leveraging strength ... assuming govt intervention hadn't
> occurred then weakening there would indicate that the carry trade
> repatriation was slowing.
>
> Also it is likely to be cyclical (Hedge Funds will be playing for
> their lives and stalling fire sales until nearer the end of the
> month) .. the current hiatus may signal end of month closure ... if
> the green days become more frequent in the next couple of weeks,
> whcih I think they will, look out for any carryover of deleveraging
> wind-down at the later half of next month.... more fire sales could
> occur then.
>
> brian_z
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "sidhartha70" <sidhartha70@>
> wrote:
> >
> > Brian,
> >
> > Yes I went through the same thought process as you probably.
> > In the end I decided that I could only concentrate on a few products
> > and they were going to be the main line futures contracts.
> > To trade UK stocks I'd also be paying 0.5% stamp duty which just
> isn't
> > an option... so the UK lost my business!!!
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> > >
> > > > Obviously it always depends on the exact product mix... but as a
> > > > general rule, for most traders, IQ Feed is def. more bang for
> your
> > > buck...
> > > >
> > > > I'm in the UK... and eSignal also charge me VAT... (17.5%) and
> IQ
> > > Feed
> > > > don't....
> > >
> > > True on the VAT - called GST at 10% in Australia......
> > >
> > > ... but, it looks like you don't trade the UK or Euro stocks?
> > >
> > > If you did wouldn't eS be obligatory?
> > >
> > > What I am saying is, if we want our local exchange and want to
> move
> > > around between Asia, Europe and the US wouldn't eS be the only
> choice
> > > (add exchanges for the same base fee).
> > >
> > > IQ seems to be for those who have settled on the US or Canada and
> > > aren't going anywhere else.
> > >
> > > To me it is not worth the hassle of changing providers - I
> settled on
> > > eS so that I can roam freely.
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "sidhartha70" <sidhartha70@>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Brian,
> > > >
> > > > I'm not sure thats correct.
> > > >
> > > > IQ Feed is $55 basic (includes US stocks), $20 US Futures, $25
> Intl
> > > > Futures. + Exchange Fees (includes 500 symbol viewing)
> > > >
> > > > ESignal... if you want a data only feed... $50 basic, $35 US &
> Intl
> > > > Stocks, $35 US & Intl Futures. + Exchange fees (includes only
> 200
> > > > symbol viewing - and extra $50 a month to take that up to 500).
> > > >
> > > > IQ Feed don't do European futures. If fact I think they only do
> US &
> > > > Canadian.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously it always depends on the exact product mix... but as a
> > > > general rule, for most traders, IQ Feed is def. more bang for
> your
> > > buck...
> > > >
> > > > I'm in the UK... and eSignal also charge me VAT... (17.5%) and
> IQ
> > > Feed
> > > > don't....
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Not sure if you noticed but IQ is not cheaper than eS, for
> non US
> > > > > traders, if you compare apples to apples.
> > > > >
> > > > > Exchange fees are the same, and unavoidable for both.
> > > > >
> > > > > IQ basic + RT futures + RT international futures == USD 50 +
> 25 +
> > > 25
> > > > > eS (as above + == USD 95)
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > AFAIK IQ basic doesn't have futures included.
> > > > > IMO US Indices RT data is pretty average unless it includes
> > > futures.
> > > > > Also IQ doesn't have pre/after market data.
> > > > > For non US citz who take eS they can add any international
> > > exchange
> > > > > e.g. ASX RT, for the price of the exchange fee only.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > brian_z
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, dingo <waledingo@> wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I'm going to be trying out IQFeed and have noticed some
> > > differences
> > > > > in what
> > > > > > the IQFeed site says vs the Amibroker site:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1. Amibroker says $50 / month + exchange fees - IQFeed says
> $55
> > > + -
> > > > > which
> > > > > > one is correct?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 2. Amibroker says to download IQFeed API client setup
> (version
> > > > > 4.2.1.4) -
> > > > > > IQFeed says to download version Download IQFeed Client
> 4.4.0.3
> > > > > (5/13/2008)
> > > > > > - which one should I use?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks for your help!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > d
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
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