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> India , china gdp is too small to get very badly hit
Similarly the Australian market is somewhat irrelevant on the world
stage plus systemic problems aren't so deep in a smaller modern
economy plus govt actions were speedier and more appropiate (easier
to isolate problems in a small economy and more time to react based
on overseas experience and events) so Aus is still positive for some
growth in future years.
Unfotunately it is an immature economy ... like a micro US and not
fully fledged enough to feed us all.
> CHINA 6 % and India 7 % .. expected ... average . growth .next
>year ..
I saw some conflicting opinion on China's growth ... BHP Billiton who
are at home there and reported to have very good local knowlege and
relationships .... they are informed by way of the contracts they
negotiate and write ... they are still bullish on China growth plus
China has strong foreign reserve for local stimulus..... specifically
they don't predict long term demand for commodities to fall to the
extent factored in by the markets.
China seems accepting of their role on the world stage and prepared
to act constructively.
Australia is actually more on the Chinese/Asian coat tail than in
previous decades so optimisitically will still get some lift.
The world is very interested in the US election - it influences our
lifes that much I feel we should get a vote :-)
Of course we have opinion on US politics and the need for soul
searching but being polite we don't interfere and leave it up to
you.... the US is not alone in the need for soul searching ... all of
the modern world is in he same boat .... none of us are holier than
thou.
The rest of the world understands the implications that current
events mark the shift in power from the US as the primary power to
shared global power ... this was going on and is inevitable
anyway.... in short China and India can still pull the world economy
along while the US has some timeout.
Australia understands the eminence of the Asian economies .... we are
the Anglos of Asia ... the Asians are sophisticated enough to
understand this and the ironies involved ... when Australia
officially joined APEC the Asian chair quipped about us now being
Asian and got a good laugh from it ... so the relationship is
friendly/mature enough to joke about it at official levels.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Natasha ~~!!!"
<ghostship.blackparrot@xxx> wrote:
>
> hi ,
>
> Flight to the dollar is expected to get even stronger in short
term once
> OBAMA gets into office NOV 5 and forms his team and then later
when they
> just realise that its all FIAT money and there is no positive
effect ,
> the dollar is just going to drop . .
>
> Fiat money (who is going to pay for the printed dollar notes :
CANT BE
> TAXPAYERS its impossible nearly one trillion ~ noone will buy
Paper also
> now ) always inevitably results in a severe prolonged recession .
>
> . I think bad days ahead this is just the beginning ,, trying to
Jump
> start the engine is not working . and its going to take all the
emerging
> markets also along slightly for a while .
>
> but these are good buy opportunities for emerging markets .which
would
> decouple a lot from these advanced ones .
> NOTE : world gdp 56 trillion , usa +Japan + Eurozone == 40
trillion ,
> CHINA 3 trillion , India 1 trillion , russia + other brics 2
> trillion ..rest of world remaining 6 trillion .
>
> India , china gdp is too small to get very badly hit only
flight of
> dollar from these markets is there in the short term . .
>
> CHINA 6 % and India 7 % .. expected ... average . growth .next
year ..
>
> Thanks .
>
> ....
>
> On 10/26/08, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
> >
> > Thanks Tomasz - a very good resource for insight into the
markets.
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>, "Tomasz
> > Janeczko" <groups@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Brian,
> > >
> > > Actually it is known phenomenon that USD is getting strength
> > > when economy collapses.
> > > See "dollar is smiling in a recession"
> > > http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20071210-
> > Mon.html (Dec 2007)
> > > and
> > > http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20080407-
> > Mon.html (Apr, 2008)
> > >
> > > Best regards,
> > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > amibroker.com
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>>
> > > Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 4:17 AM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Does anyone have any idea why the USD is so strong at the
moment.
> > >
> > > I am puzzled by this as I can't see any basis for it.
> > >
> > > The only explanation that I can come up with is that there has
been
> > a
> > > silent emulation of the Japanese 'carry trade' based on low
interest
> > > USD loans (the US has low interest rates, a desire to protect
> > > exports, sluggish growth and a sophisticated investment culture
in
> > > common with Japan).
> > >
> > > quote from:
> > >
> > > http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/yen_carry_trade_101620084
> > >
> > > Japan sits at the epicenter of "bubble-mania" in foreign
exchange,
> > > because its yield starved domestic investors plowed $6 trillion
of
> > > their savings into overseas assets.
> > >
> > > Japanese investors increased their exposure to foreign assets
by ¥59
> > > trillion ($566 billion) in 2007 alone, setting a record top of
Â¥610
> > > trillion ($5.9 trillion) and making Japan the world's largest
> > > creditor nation for the 17th straight year.
> > >
> > > In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of
low-
> > > cost Japanese Yen (Tokyo interest rates haven't got above 1.0%
per
> > > year since the start of this decade), in order to buy higher
> > yielding
> > > currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > "History never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep at
night"
> > > (Split Enz)
> > >
> > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Financial_Crisis
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>, "Tomasz
> > Janeczko" <groups@>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hello,
> > > >
> > > > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> > > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
> > > >
> > > > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently
at
> > > 1.5%)
> > > >
> > > > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
> > > >
> > > > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
> > > Japan central bank in '90s.
> > > >
> > > > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast,
much
> > > faster than FED, IMHO.
> > > > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see
EURUSD
> > =
> > > 1.0 soon
> > > > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
> > > months to come.
> > > >
> > > > Any thoughts?
> > > >
> > > > Best regards,
> > > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > > amibroker.com
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------------------------
> > >
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> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> --
>
> Warm Regards;
> `````` Natasha !!!
> To achieve, you need thought. You have to know what you are doing
and that's
> real power.
>
------------------------------------
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