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hi ,
Flight to the dollar is expected to get even stronger in short term once OBAMA gets into office NOV 5 and forms his team and then later when they just realise that its all FIAT money and there is no positive effect , the dollar is just going to drop . .
Fiat money (who is going to pay for the printed dollar notes : CANT BE TAXPAYERS its impossible nearly one trillion ~ noone will buy Paper also now ) always inevitably results in a severe prolonged recession .
. I think bad days ahead this is just the beginning ,, trying to Jump start the engine is not working . and its going to take all the emerging markets also along slightly for a while .
but these are good buy opportunities for emerging markets .which would decouple a lot from these advanced ones .
NOTE : world gdp 56 trillion , usa +Japan + Eurozone == 40 trillion ,
CHINA 3 trillion , India 1 trillion , russia + other brics 2 trillion ..rest of world remaining 6 trillion .
India , china gdp is too small to get very badly hit only flight of dollar from these markets is there in the short term . .
CHINA 6 % and India 7 % .. expected ... average . growth .next year ..
Thanks .
....
On 10/26/08, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Thanks Tomasz - a very good resource for insight into the markets.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
wrote:
>
> Brian,
>
> Actually it is known phenomenon that USD is getting strength
> when economy collapses.
> See "dollar is smiling in a recession"
> http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20071210-
Mon.html (Dec 2007)
> and
> http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20080407-
Mon.html (Apr, 2008)
>
> Best regards,
> Tomasz Janeczko
> amibroker.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 4:17 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
>
>
>
> Does anyone have any idea why the USD is so strong at the moment.
>
> I am puzzled by this as I can't see any basis for it.
>
> The only explanation that I can come up with is that there has been
a
> silent emulation of the Japanese 'carry trade' based on low interest
> USD loans (the US has low interest rates, a desire to protect
> exports, sluggish growth and a sophisticated investment culture in
> common with Japan).
>
> quote from:
>
> http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/yen_carry_trade_101620084
>
> Japan sits at the epicenter of "bubble-mania" in foreign exchange,
> because its yield starved domestic investors plowed $6 trillion of
> their savings into overseas assets.
>
> Japanese investors increased their exposure to foreign assets by ¥59
> trillion ($566 billion) in 2007 alone, setting a record top of ¥610
> trillion ($5.9 trillion) and making Japan the world's largest
> creditor nation for the 17th straight year.
>
> In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of low-
> cost Japanese Yen (Tokyo interest rates haven't got above 1.0% per
> year since the start of this decade), in order to buy higher
yielding
> currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad.
>
>
>
>
> "History never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep at night"
> (Split Enz)
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Financial_Crisis
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> wrote:
> >
> > Hello,
> >
> > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
> >
> > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at
> 1.5%)
> >
> > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
> >
> > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
> Japan central bank in '90s.
> >
> > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much
> faster than FED, IMHO.
> > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD
=
> 1.0 soon
> > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
> months to come.
> >
> > Any thoughts?
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
> >
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
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