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Hello Ken,
I agree that the community is a pool of trading experience if people
do want to share it..... the difficulty is confining it to trade talk
and not politics.
> How has the turmoil in your local
> economy/exchange/country influenced how you trade and what your
>more recent
> performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will doing
>in the
> next days and weeks
I have already flagged my opinion and some of what I consider to be
appropriate strategies in previous posts, some going back quite a way.
a) value investing ... not my strategy ... another brilliant
exposition by Buffet in the last two weeks ... right now some stocks
are at incredible value PROVIDED you really are buying FOREVER and
you do have the stomach for the ride i.e. you really don't care what
the 'price' is doing because you are happy with the yield.
I also posted some indications of the relative value of the
Australian market ... this is fundamentally a US problem that Aus was
partly isolated from ... except for the longer term affects on global
economies ... refer to the following link (take the link, at the top
of the page, to the full PDF review to see detailed comment and
graphs on why Aus financials are not going down the gurgler ... small
% of Aus mortgae market is in US equivalent to sub-primes ...
delinquincy rates are low etc)
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/FinancialStabilityReview
/Sep2008/Html/financial_stability_review_0908.html
The current crisis crystallised my view that investors should buy
yield at the bottom and anticipate growth as the cycle matures to a
new bull run.
Note that in Australia payout ratios are high and earnings yield is
often delivered as dividend yield along with tax breaks for high
earners.
Another difference is that in Australia superannuation saving is
compulsory, in the form of payroll deductions ... large amounts of
money are still flowing into Aus retirement funds ... it is sitting
on the sidelines in the form of cash so when the market is deemed to
have hit the bottom their is sufficient cash in reserve to sustain a
good start to a new bull cycle.
On top of that Aus interest rates are at 6% and have room to move
plus the economy is basically sound.
Against this is the fact that right now we have gone past nervousness
to 'rabbit in the headlight' fear ... no one can predict what can
happen in that environment or what people will do.
So there are some great long term opportunities for very brave
investors but you have to do the analysis on the earning streams of
companies to estimate their stability into the future.
My own response:
I made these decisions a long way back .... not to hold foreign
accounts .... not to be an 'investor' .... not to rely entirely on
mechanical trading .... not to be a long term trader ... to trade
short as naturally as I trade long ... not to impose my theories on
the market but to let the market dicate trades to me (based on the
charts)... not to have an inflexible attitude about what my trading
style should be .... to take into account the news of the day, both
in general and specifically with reference to sectors or companies of
interest.
In the short term the only adjustment I have made to strategy is to
move away from short term trades (a few days) and move towards
intraday ..... I was aleady biased to intraday trading anyway but
more than ever at the moment....
DO NOT HOLD OVERNIGHT OR WEEKEND POSTIONS
... an afterhours political decision can kill you.
I am in cash every night.
Gold and oil are extremely volatile so that makes for a good intraday
payday ... the negative there is that volatility can kill you if you
are on the wrong side of it..... once again prices can leap over
stops.
The state of the markets:
What I am watching now is the situation in Europe ... it seems to
have peaked around Iceland ... Iceland can't afford to buy its way
out of trouble but it looks like other nations are helping out ...
Russia lent a few billion Euros ... Holland lent them the money to
guarantee the retail deposits of Dutch accounts with Icelandic
banks ... UK about to do the same.
So, unless there is anymore shocking Euro news there may be an end in
sight for Europe.
Unfortunately all roads lead to Wall Street.
I find the view of economist Jubak credible i.e. that the sticking
point is the carry forward debt of Lehman's ... unknown owners at
this stage ... refer to the link below for a video discussion ...
Lehmans CreditDefaultSwaps auctioned last friday establishes debt,
for holders of approx 91 cents/$ ... to be cleared by the end of
October ... the companies holding that debt should be known before
then.
[scroll down to "Is It The End OF Financial World?" video]
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/home.asp
I also agree with Noriel Roubini's recent comments (I posted a link
to his RGE Monitor site before) ... IMO Govt's didn't act radically
enough, or with enough haste, but it is easy to be an armchair critic.
All the best with your trading.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ken Close" <ken45140@xxx> wrote:
>
> I realize that this is off topic, but this list has two
characteristics that
> make this post potentially interesting as well as relevant.
>
> We have members from all over the world, representing participants
and
> citizens in many, many countries.
>
> We also have members who trade differently using different
securities and
> different approaches.
>
> My question is: are you making money in the current volatile
economic
> climate and if so how? How has the turmoil in your local
> economy/exchange/country influenced how you trade and what your
more recent
> performance is? What are you doing or do you think you will doing
in the
> next days and weeks (as it changes so frequently, who knows what
months will
> bring)?
>
> I realize we seldom talk about anything but coding and user issues
with the
> AB program, but could we have a departure for a moment, at least in
this
> thread, to comment on how you see the near term future in your neck
of the
> (woods) world, and what you are doing about your trading and/or
investing.
>
> I personally am heavily hedged, ie, own high percentage of inverse
funds,
> along with one position in a top performing and so far, slower
losing mutual
> fund (OAKBX) as well as a few stocks that are truly buy and hold.
Down
> about 3% year to date and would have been positive if I had
unloaded other
> long (hedged) positions sooner.
>
> Any comments?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Ken
>
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