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Hi Tomasz,
It is just those "unbelievable events" that I worry about.
And I can well understand that your children cannot hardly relate to
Solidarnosc. But then, that is just the point, isn't it? It is
within one single generation, and things can change in a hurry. As
your children cannot relate to that, you at that time would have a
hard time relating to now, I think.
Glad you all have valid passports.
Being a NATO member is irrelevant, I propose, because the only power
that really means anything in NATO is the US, and as currently
situated politically and strategically, the US doesn't mean anything
-- much the same as depending on Britain and France in 1939 didn't
mean anything, at least in the short run. I don't know how Poland is
in a "better position now". Last I checked, it still borders Russia,
and that country is still not happy about losing its defense in
depth, and seems determined to reverse that fact.
(When you -- Russia -- fly a strategic intercontinental bomber 600
meters straight smack over the flight deck of a US aircraft carrier
in the Pacific, apparently without any fear of losing it, you are
sending a certain signal. And allowing that to happen sends another
signal, indeed -- I would have cashiered the commanding officer of
that carrier group without question. I guess I'm just tougher than
the average hockey mom.)
Rather than inflation, I suspect the next boogie man is deflation.
Our Japanese disease may be contagious. (How I wish for inflation,
because at least in its initial stages, it is great for equities.)
As for Russia's interest in maintaining high energy prices: I'm sure
you are right -- to a point. But armies need oil to move.
Got much, do you? (Armies, or oil?)
The fact is that, right now, Poland and the Baltics remain
independent at the absolute whim of Russia, and for no other reason.
The backers that would have defended them 10 years ago won't raise
more than a noisy protest today, noisy indeed, but that will be the
extent of it. Having looked into the soul of Mr. Putin, I see the
ghost of Molotov. And that doesn't mean "cocktail", which doesn't
imply "Happy hour". ^_^
I'm relaxed. Really. Russia has yet to evidence any serious blue
water amphibious capabilities. But they can cross rivers in a jiffy.
Time and time again, economic crises have begotten military problems.
If this crisis doesn't settle down soon, it could very well happen
again. I'm not saying it *will*, mind you. But I'm saying there are
plenty of historical precedents, and I would not be too sanguine
about dismissing the possibility.
Yuki
Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 7:37:12 PM, you wrote:
TJ> Hello,
TJ> I understand that market action rises emotions high, but
TJ> I would rather prefer everyone to relax a bit.
TJ> To the matter: the fact that Poland is European Union member state
TJ> and NATO member since 1999 does not guarantee 100% safety,
TJ> but still Poland is in far, far better position now than in the past.
TJ> During my lifetime I have seen martial law, change of system,
TJ> and other "unbeliveable" events.
TJ> If you were in Poland back in 70's then in 90's and now you
TJ> would see what has changed. When I tell my children
TJ> how it was in the past they ask me if it was at the same time when dinosaurs lived.
TJ> It is about the same level of abstraction to them.
TJ> As for the Russia: at the moment Russia is rather worried about dropping prices
TJ> of oil and gas and all they want is stabilisation as it means
TJ> more money for them.
TJ> So, I would rather be concerned about the inflation and next bubble(s) that are going
TJ> to build up after hundreds of billions $$$ are created out of thin air, than anything else.
TJ> I know, I know, "inflation" is forgotten word in Japan :-), but then Japan M3 growth
TJ> is probably the smallest within G8.... now compare to Fed M3 not being published
TJ> anymore...
TJ> Best regards,
TJ> Tomasz Janeczko
TJ> amibroker.com
TJ> PS. Do not worry, I have valid passports for all family members :-)
TJ> ----- Original Message -----
TJ> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
TJ> To: "Amibroker" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
TJ> Sent: Tuesday, October 07, 2008 11:28 AM
TJ> Subject: [amibroker] OT: preserving Amibroker
>> It might be a good idea to get Amibroker out of Poland.
>>
>> I did my master's degree in National Security Studies at Georgetown
>> University (undergraduate work at Columbia). Make of this what you
>> will, as I'm sure any intelligent person would do in any case.
>>
>> The key to the future stability of Eastern Europe is a country that
>> didn't even really exist before 1871: Germany. Until that year, the
>> German-speaking world was fragmented into small states, riven by
>> internal dissension, and wide open to the influence of foreign
>> powers.
>>
>> With the Prussian defeat of the French in 1871, all that changed.
>> Prussia was now free to create a unified Germany. This changed the
>> history of Europe, as most of us recognize, but Germany still found
>> itself in the position of being sandwiched between Russia and France,
>> and we have all lived with the psycho-political ramifications of that
>> for most of the 20th century.
>>
>> With the demise of the Soviet Union, circa 1991, Germany found itself
>> united, and militarily secure. It was rarified air, and although
>> economically expensive initially, the Germans loved it. In fact,
>> they could afford it.
>>
>> Germany would have naturally welcomed any blockage of the reemergence
>> of Russian influence in the early years of this century, but by now
>> this reemergence is a fact, and a fact that Germany is not inclined
>> to challenge. Almost without saying, Europe, and Germany, are
>> dependent on Russian energy to get through the winters at a price
>> they can afford.
>>
>> If Germany is inclined to thwart the newly aggressive posture of
>> Russia, the first step would be to insure its eastern flank, namely
>> Poland and the Baltic countries. If the United States could be
>> relied upon to provide sufficient forces, this would be a credible
>> deterrent. But of course the US cannot possibly put sufficient
>> forces into the area, and must rely on its nuclear umbrella, and
>> Germany well understands this.
>>
>> Mind you, Germany would have no objection to US forces in the
>> Baltics. But Germany absolutely realizes that such forces would be
>> only token, and that the US would unlikely be willing to "go to the
>> mat" (full-out nuclear war) with the Russians should they decide they
>> can no longer tolerate the Baltic states. So Germany isn't about to
>> send troops east. Therefore, Germany does not make NATO credible,
>> unless you think Danish and Dutch or Belgian troops are going to take
>> up much slack. God love you, and God help them.
>>
>> The bottom line is that NATO is no longer a credible threat against
>> Russian games in Eastern Europe. A "fait accompli" would be just
>> that: a done deed. Russia understands this, and is testing the idea
>> in Georgia.
>>
>> The problem of Eastern European security is the problem of Germany.
>> If it won't act to thwart Russian aggression, for whatever reason,
>> then what can be done about Russia, which seems bent on reasserting
>> its former hegemony?
>>
>> If I was living in Poland these days, I'd make sure everyone in my
>> family had a passport -- and the means to use it.
>>
>> As we all know, these are very challenging economic times.
>> Historically, such times have lent themselves to military adventures,
>> whether most of us would deem such adventures prudent or otherwise.
>>
>> I know ... I know ... these are different times.
>>
>> Oh? Really? And just what would a lame-duck US administration do
>> about a sudden and full-fledged Russian invasion of the Baltics and
>> or Poland? Stop them from trading with insolvent US banks? Risk New
>> York for Tallinn? Tell me another good joke.
>>
>> I stand ready to take on opposing views. ^_^
>>
>> Yuki
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------------
>>
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------------------------------------
**** IMPORTANT ****
This group is for the discussion between users only.
This is *NOT* technical support channel.
*********************
TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
*********************
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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For other support material please check also:
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