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It might be a good idea to get Amibroker out of Poland.
I did my master's degree in National Security Studies at Georgetown
University (undergraduate work at Columbia). Make of this what you
will, as I'm sure any intelligent person would do in any case.
The key to the future stability of Eastern Europe is a country that
didn't even really exist before 1871: Germany. Until that year, the
German-speaking world was fragmented into small states, riven by
internal dissension, and wide open to the influence of foreign
powers.
With the Prussian defeat of the French in 1871, all that changed.
Prussia was now free to create a unified Germany. This changed the
history of Europe, as most of us recognize, but Germany still found
itself in the position of being sandwiched between Russia and France,
and we have all lived with the psycho-political ramifications of that
for most of the 20th century.
With the demise of the Soviet Union, circa 1991, Germany found itself
united, and militarily secure. It was rarified air, and although
economically expensive initially, the Germans loved it. In fact,
they could afford it.
Germany would have naturally welcomed any blockage of the reemergence
of Russian influence in the early years of this century, but by now
this reemergence is a fact, and a fact that Germany is not inclined
to challenge. Almost without saying, Europe, and Germany, are
dependent on Russian energy to get through the winters at a price
they can afford.
If Germany is inclined to thwart the newly aggressive posture of
Russia, the first step would be to insure its eastern flank, namely
Poland and the Baltic countries. If the United States could be
relied upon to provide sufficient forces, this would be a credible
deterrent. But of course the US cannot possibly put sufficient
forces into the area, and must rely on its nuclear umbrella, and
Germany well understands this.
Mind you, Germany would have no objection to US forces in the
Baltics. But Germany absolutely realizes that such forces would be
only token, and that the US would unlikely be willing to "go to the
mat" (full-out nuclear war) with the Russians should they decide they
can no longer tolerate the Baltic states. So Germany isn't about to
send troops east. Therefore, Germany does not make NATO credible,
unless you think Danish and Dutch or Belgian troops are going to take
up much slack. God love you, and God help them.
The bottom line is that NATO is no longer a credible threat against
Russian games in Eastern Europe. A "fait accompli" would be just
that: a done deed. Russia understands this, and is testing the idea
in Georgia.
The problem of Eastern European security is the problem of Germany.
If it won't act to thwart Russian aggression, for whatever reason,
then what can be done about Russia, which seems bent on reasserting
its former hegemony?
If I was living in Poland these days, I'd make sure everyone in my
family had a passport -- and the means to use it.
As we all know, these are very challenging economic times.
Historically, such times have lent themselves to military adventures,
whether most of us would deem such adventures prudent or otherwise.
I know ... I know ... these are different times.
Oh? Really? And just what would a lame-duck US administration do
about a sudden and full-fledged Russian invasion of the Baltics and
or Poland? Stop them from trading with insolvent US banks? Risk New
York for Tallinn? Tell me another good joke.
I stand ready to take on opposing views. ^_^
Yuki
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