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Good call Tomasz..... and it is worth a post to caution traders that
it seems unlikely the root causes will be acknowledged or fixed... in
fact I doubt some contributing factors can be eliminated (cultural
and individual/corporate rights issues etc) ... 5-10 years from now
we will do it all again, with a new crew on board.... be aware that
after a sustained bull run markets won't just fall they will undergo
leveraged deficit implosions.
Some relevant factors:
- anglo countries tendency to run current account deficits (big ones
in fact)
- incorrect and unimaginative Federal fiscal policies (I am not
picking on the US because it is not confined to the US)
- modern cultures tendency to run on credit as normal (in the anglo
countries acceptance of credit is a generational change ... perhaps
on all modern economies)
- the theory that interest rates and property/stockmarket booms run
in opposed cycles is incorrect ... leveraged property booms and
leveraged market cycles feed off each other
- democracy delivers us freedom from civil war but not necessarily
great leadership
- statistically speaking, brilliant people only comprise a small % of
our community and they are unlikely to ever hold power in any field
of endeavour (they are always outweighed by popular opinion).
Traders need to adapt their methods to the dominant financial
paradigm.
Predictions?
Currently 'new' Asian economies are cash based but they will emulate
the modern western economies along with growing maturity and
generational change.
Perhaps Japan is the example in that they learnt the lesson of
copying western economic excesses in the 90's and have returned to
their cultural roots of being a thrifty society....but can that
culturesurvive the new generation IT?
Still nothing that the 'mother of all sales' of kids, boys and girls
toys won't fix.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
wrote:
>
> It was known since 'the beginning of the universe' that there is no
profit without risk
> but there are always new generations of "experts" that say
that "this time is different".
> And the market proves they are wrong, and the history repeats over
and over again.
> The problem is that the leverage goes up and up and subsequent
disasters getting stronger.
>
> Best regards,
> Tomasz Janeczko
> amibroker.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, October 03, 2008 1:50 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] OT: A mathematicians guide to the news
>
>
> > http://www.slate.com/id/2201428/
> >
> > Yuki
> >
> >
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