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A good interview with Buffet that reveals his current take on the
markets:
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?
rn=289004&cl=9990956&src=finance&ch=4043681
(copy the broken link into Word or Notepad to put it backtogether and
copy/paste into a browser address bar - sorry I went off URL
directors).
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> A heads up, as Tomasz would say.... US short selling 'ban' due to
> end ... likely to be extended.
>
> An article discussing the outcomes of the ban so far:
>
> (scroll down to "Don't Blame The Short Sellers").
>
> http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker
>
> It is a not a time to let the emotions run hot ... those who are
> keeping cool, calm and collected are doing well ... they are bad
days
> for investors and savers but good days for value buyers and
speculators
> (condolences to anyone who has lost money .. a 63 year old, 2 years
> retired, friend of mine, with invested retirement funds, is now
heading
> back to work).
>
>
> FWIW an opinion on where we are now.
>
> There are three things happening simultaneously, each with
different
> outcomes:
>
>
> a) The real crisis is confined to the area of Financial Management,
as
> opposed to the market i.e. the way that businesses carry out
financial
> transactions between themselves, their compliance with govt
standards
> and the standards in force.
>
> The longer term agenda is that of the IMF Global Stability Forum
(as
> discussed at last weeks unofficial meeting of G20 leaders in
NewYork).
>
> http://www.fsforum.org/publications/r_0804.pdf
>
> The short term affect on the markets is minimal since that horse
has
> already well and truly bolted.
>
> Projecting this crisis onto the market holds little value for
traders.
>
> b) Public perceptions of the crisis are focused around the security
of
> their deposits .... this is the real danger in the short term ...
it
> appears to be easily contained by Govt actions to guarantee
> deposits ... presumably ave private savings are far outweighed by
ave
> private debt so the total possible withdrawals are within a
containable
> range (respective govts have deep enough pockets to insure private
> savings e.g. Ireland, France, US increasing FDIC insurance etc).
>
> c) Market volatility ... is more emotional than rational ...
emotional
> outbursts tend to come quickly and swing back the other way
quickly ...
> by nature they can't be sustained for long periods of time .....
after
> the first few extremes they tend to diminish in strength.... the
longer
> between episodes the lesser the chance for another extreme event.
>
> The reality is that the weaker companies are passing into stronger
> hands (the market is doing its job).
>
> Currently banks can't maintain lending levels because they need
cash
> reserves to cover the mini-run on the banks... this is flowing onto
> other businesses, who will in turn suffer lower sales/earnings (new
> shorting opportunities are created!).
>
> http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081001/auto_sales.html
>
> http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081001/economy.html
>
> This cycle, of a shortage of bank liquidity, will soon come to an
end
> but it will take some time to get the machinery, in that area,
running
> again.
>
> On top of that large financial institutions have had their
portfolios
> slashed (on paper) OR are in damage control OR are in the process
of
> integrating merged companies so there is not so much cash around,
> amongst the big players, to buy stock and hence support a stong
bull
> rally (compare to Buffet who keeps 10Billion acquisition cash in
> reserve and has now so obviously revealed his very simple strategy
of
> using it to buy high probability growing yields when the price is
> right).
>
> A side play to the whole scenario is that the Banks, that are
holding
> big exposures, are playing it for all they can to maximise their
own
> returns.
>
>
> As long as guarantees of bank deposits are in place, and hold, the
> crisis will pass ..... market volatility and Finacial Management
> reforms are more emotive, than substantial issues, in the short
term.
>
> In the longer term it appears to be a bit of a grind for the US to
work
> its way out of a recession.
>
>
> brian_z
>
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