|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
A heads up, as Tomasz would say.... US short selling 'ban' due to
end ... likely to be extended.
An article discussing the outcomes of the ban so far:
(scroll down to "Don't Blame The Short Sellers").
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker
It is a not a time to let the emotions run hot ... those who are
keeping cool, calm and collected are doing well ... they are bad days
for investors and savers but good days for value buyers and speculators
(condolences to anyone who has lost money .. a 63 year old, 2 years
retired, friend of mine, with invested retirement funds, is now heading
back to work).
FWIW an opinion on where we are now.
There are three things happening simultaneously, each with different
outcomes:
a) The real crisis is confined to the area of Financial Management, as
opposed to the market i.e. the way that businesses carry out financial
transactions between themselves, their compliance with govt standards
and the standards in force.
The longer term agenda is that of the IMF Global Stability Forum (as
discussed at last weeks unofficial meeting of G20 leaders in NewYork).
http://www.fsforum.org/publications/r_0804.pdf
The short term affect on the markets is minimal since that horse has
already well and truly bolted.
Projecting this crisis onto the market holds little value for traders.
b) Public perceptions of the crisis are focused around the security of
their deposits .... this is the real danger in the short term ... it
appears to be easily contained by Govt actions to guarantee
deposits ... presumably ave private savings are far outweighed by ave
private debt so the total possible withdrawals are within a containable
range (respective govts have deep enough pockets to insure private
savings e.g. Ireland, France, US increasing FDIC insurance etc).
c) Market volatility ... is more emotional than rational ... emotional
outbursts tend to come quickly and swing back the other way quickly ...
by nature they can't be sustained for long periods of time ..... after
the first few extremes they tend to diminish in strength.... the longer
between episodes the lesser the chance for another extreme event.
The reality is that the weaker companies are passing into stronger
hands (the market is doing its job).
Currently banks can't maintain lending levels because they need cash
reserves to cover the mini-run on the banks... this is flowing onto
other businesses, who will in turn suffer lower sales/earnings (new
shorting opportunities are created!).
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081001/auto_sales.html
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081001/economy.html
This cycle, of a shortage of bank liquidity, will soon come to an end
but it will take some time to get the machinery, in that area, running
again.
On top of that large financial institutions have had their portfolios
slashed (on paper) OR are in damage control OR are in the process of
integrating merged companies so there is not so much cash around,
amongst the big players, to buy stock and hence support a stong bull
rally (compare to Buffet who keeps 10Billion acquisition cash in
reserve and has now so obviously revealed his very simple strategy of
using it to buy high probability growing yields when the price is
right).
A side play to the whole scenario is that the Banks, that are holding
big exposures, are playing it for all they can to maximise their own
returns.
As long as guarantees of bank deposits are in place, and hold, the
crisis will pass ..... market volatility and Finacial Management
reforms are more emotive, than substantial issues, in the short term.
In the longer term it appears to be a bit of a grind for the US to work
its way out of a recession.
brian_z
------------------------------------
**** IMPORTANT ****
This group is for the discussion between users only.
This is *NOT* technical support channel.
*********************
TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
*********************
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
For other support material please check also:
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
*********************************
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:amibroker-digest@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
mailto:amibroker-fullfeatured@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|