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Brian,
Thought you might find this interesting. I've read a couple of this
guys books (being a Market Profile geek)... and I rate him very
highly. Just an interesting link,
http://www.marketsinprofile.com/DscrtTrdr-2.html
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> My teacher often said "Energy follows thought." - I find it one of
> the more difficult axioms to understand.
>
> I think it is embodied in trading by 'positive thinking' ... Napolean
> Hill and the classics of that kind.
>
> brian_z
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jan Malmberg" <jan@> wrote:
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > In response to the entire thread: Because there is energy, there is
> law that
> > governs it. No energy equals no law which equals no energy. This is
> the
> > fundamental truth of existence.
> >
> > Best regards / JM
> >
> >
> >
> > _____
> >
> > Från: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> För
> > sidhartha70
> > Skickat: den 23 augusti 2008 11:43
> > Till: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Ämne: [amibroker] Re: 'Rule Based' versus 'Discretionary' trading...
> >
> >
> >
> > Brian,
> >
> > Interesting as always.
> >
> > I'm not sure I see a difference between 'X traders' and 'intuitive
> > traders'... they are the same thing I assume?? Why classify them as
> > 'X' traders when 'intuitive' is a term much more familiar to most?
> >
> > You say,
> >
> > "In all probability traders who haven't written down their rules
> are
> > > using much simpler 'systems' and/or have automatically joined
> > > together a few simple rules to make a set of easily 'remembered'
> > > mental rules."
> >
> > I'm not sure I agree with that statement. I think a good, intuitive
> > trader can be processing far more information than you suggest, and
> a
> > much larger base of loosely based rules than you suggest.
> >
> > To quote Steven Hawkins from 'Steidlmayer on Markets'...
> >
> > "... you will begin to gain a feel for a market that enables you to
> > sense changes AS they occur, not after. You will develop the ability
> > to RECOGNIZE opportunies. You will learn to RECOGNIZE when you are
> > wrong BEFORE your dollar position tells you so. You will begin to
> see
> > that, when you have exited a trade early, it was usually the right
> > thing to do... In other words you become 'one' with the market."
> >
> > I guess that's something approaching intuition. I remain to be
> > convinced that 'seeing a few seconds into the future' is anything
> more
> > than being 'in flow' with the market. Maybe zero delay, seeing
> things
> > AS they happen, not after, is enough.
> >
> > I find it strange that you don't use more intution in your trading
> > since you seem to believe in its power and use it so successfully
> > elsewhere in your life.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> ps.com,
> > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> > >
> > > > Another possible irrational explanation is that some humans may
> have
> > > > the ability to see the future.
> > >
> > >
> > > Ed,
> > >
> > > I feel I sold you short on this one so if you are interested in a
> > > more detailed answer read on.
> > >
> > > In my scheme of things there are no trader classifications,
> except
> > > perhaps good ones and not so good ones.
> > >
> > > If it helps us to understand our trading and/or become better
> > > traders, by naming classes, by all means lets do so but if and
> when
> > > we consider traders to be discretionary, we are, IMO deceiving
> > > ourselves i.e. it is probably the most useless classification of
> all.
> > >
> > > For the sake of the discussion - if there are otraders who
> can 'know'
> > > things using faculties that other traders don't have then I would
> > > call them XTraders (X == unclassified OR an unknown quantity).
> > >
> > > Our culturally accepted paradigm is that we are thinking
> > > (rationalising) and feeling creatures contained in a physical
> body
> > > (vessel).
> > >
> > > Culturally it is considered 'irrational' that anyone could
> function
> > > with a faculty other than thinking or feeling i.e. people
> > > who 'believe' this are sub-standard thinkers (perhaps they are
> > > unbalanced by their emotions?)
> > >
> > > In other cultures alternative 'levels of consciousness' are
> > > considered the norm (consciousness that is above and beyond
> rational
> > > thinking that is).
> > >
> > > Specialists in this field don't consider these X faculties as
> > > irrational - this term is reserved for a special class of sub-
> > > rational consciousness.
> > >
> > >
> > > As an analogy:
> > >
> > > Rationality can be symbolised by a clear blue cloudless sky and
> the
> > > sub-conscious mind as the clear deep green ocean.
> > >
> > > The irrational elements of our 'mind' are floating on the surface
> of
> > > the ocean, bobbing up and down like corks.
> > > Collectively the corks are always in motion.
> > > They are discrete and individual corks 'rotate' above and below
> the
> > > water line. Their upward motion creates pressure on our conscious
> > > mind and some leap out of the water, into consciousness, for
> brief
> > > periods.
> > >
> > > We call them irrational because they never come to full and
> complete
> > > expression in our rational mind - it is not possible for them to
> > > exist there autonomously because of the material that they are
> > > constructed of (speaking symbolically they are half-formed
> creatures
> > > from the deep).
> > >
> > > They act somewhat autonomously from our consious mind and
> controlling
> > > them is a devil of a job (the labours of Hercules).
> > >
> > > Specifically they are products of our environment
> (upbringing/past
> > > etc) that are exascerbated ny 'inherited' qualities (put two
> people
> > > in the same stressful environment and one can develop a mental
> > > pathology while the other person won't).
> > >
> > > They can affect our trading by popping up as irrational behavoiur
> in
> > > the heat of battle or by generally influencing our approach
> > > (fear/greed etc).
> > >
> > > The 'higher' level of consciousness (knowing) that I am
> personally
> > > familiar with is the Intuition which I consider to be the
> 4th/seven
> > > levels of consciousness attainable my Mankind.
> > >
> > > Note that in our culture the term is used in different ways in
> > > different cultures and that even amongst specialists in this
> field
> > > their is disagreement over the classifications of consciousness
> and
> > > the nomenclature.
> > >
> > > I don't know how Intuition works, nor have I experienced the full
> > > scope of it.
> > >
> > > For me it works in different ways at different times and it is
> > > dependent on how I manage it (if I am tired or don't pay full
> > > attention the quality of what I 'perceive' drops).
> > >
> > > It is not mind reading.
> > >
> > > I experience it as a kind of 'super-rationality' i.e. given the
> same
> > > facts that the rational mind possesses (yes I still have to read
> the
> > > help manual) I can sometimes connect the dots in amazing ways and
> do
> > > it instantaneously - I just consider I have done the rational
> anlysis
> > > at a speed that my conscious mind couldn't keep up with.
> > >
> > > According to the pundits other levels of consciousness are
> accessible
> > > in the supra-rational mind.
> > >
> > > The intuitive level of consiousness can be accessed via the
> abstract
> > > mind and this is what many of the leaders of our culture do - it
> is
> > > especially prevalent in those who are trained in/have a
> disposition
> > > towards use of the abstract languages e.g.
> > > maths,programming,philosophy, art, music etc where it is
> experienced
> > > as INSPIRATION.
> > >
> > > I haven't tried to be an Intuitive trader because I am quite
> happy to
> > > use all of the resources available to me in a balanced way
> (combining
> > > computer skills, rational thinking, inspiration and emotional
> control
> > > in a synthesized package and I am doing fine with that).
> > >
> > > Anyway, I can't seperate my learned experiences from my
> instinctive
> > > experiences so I couldn't perform an honest test (if I tried to
> make
> > > purely intuitive trading choices I could be biased by other more
> > > mundane factors).
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > How does this apply to trading?
> > >
> > > We can make a truly unbiased decision if we flip a coin
> (technically
> > > speaking the decision is made by the coin at the moment it comes
> to
> > > rest).
> > >
> > > Coins don't have thoughts, feelings or X consciousness.
> > >
> > > We do.
> > >
> > > Whenever we make a decision it is almost impossible for us to
> measure
> > > the degree that it is influenced by feelings, thoughts or
> XFactors.
> > >
> > > Anything that influences our decision making places a condition
> on
> > > it, so in a round aout way it is a rule.
> > >
> > > That is why I claim that we are all rule based traders (unless we
> > > flip a coin to make our trading decisions).
> > >
> > > The differences come about because of the quality, number, format
> etc
> > > of our 'rules'.
> > >
> > > As a rule of thumb:
> > >
> > > Writing down our rules is one way to quality control them.
> > > Writing them in computer language is an even more definitive way
> > > force them to logicality.
> > >
> > > However we shouldn't assume that people who like to trade in a
> visual
> > > way e.g. chart trading, don't have written or programmed rules OR
> > > that people who haven't written down their rules are 'worse'
> traders
> > > than those who do.
> > >
> > > In all probability traders who haven't written down their rules
> are
> > > using much simpler 'systems' and/or have automatically joined
> > > together a few simple rules to make a set of easily 'remembered'
> > > mental rules.
> > >
> > > On that basis it is a bold asumption to say that they couldn't
> teach
> > > it to others.
> > >
> > > I dare say they can most likely teach it to a 15 year old a lot
> more
> > > readily than they could teach them to autotrade.
> > >
> > > It is a pretty fair bet that bad rules, unclear rules, or no
> rules at
> > > all, is the source of most trading trouble rather than unwritten
> > > rules or XFactor rules.
> > >
> > > As for XFactor traders (if there really are any out there):
> > >
> > > - they are still following a rules it just happens that they get
> them
> > > from the fairy perched on the top of their computer screen (I
> guess
> > > the proof of the pudding is in the eating).
> > >
> > > Personally, I haven't made a decision to buy/sell based on an
> > > intuitive signal AFAIK (if anyone is an intuitive trader then I
> would
> > > be a good candidate).
> > >
> > > However in real life I make intuitive decisions all of the time.
> > >
> > > One way I use the intuition is that I sense it like a stop light
> in
> > > the pit of my stomach - I can almost see it - red == stop/orange
> ==
> > > caution, green == go.
> > >
> > > Specfic examples:
> > >
> > > I go to a website - I take one look at it - I read the first
> > > paragraph of an article their - I get a red light - don't read
> > > anyfurther - it saves me research time - reason == the level of
> > > consciousness of the author is too low - they couldn't possibly
> write
> > > anything about trading worth reading (sorry but it isn't anything
> > > more romantic than that).
> > >
> > > In other cases I use the intuition in more advanced ways but that
> is
> > > a very long story.
> > >
> > > I hope that helps a few traders sort out their thoughts.
> > >
> > > "If we are saying it, we are thinking it.
> > > If we are thinking it, we are doing it".
> > >
> > > If we are sloppy with our trading nomenclature?
> > >
> > >
> > > brian_z *:-)
> > >
> > > I am very sorry but I can't answer private emails to my public
> email
> > > addresses - many of them get lost amongst the spam anyway.
> > >
> > > Also I apologise deeply but I do not 'take' students.
> > >
> > > FTR I teach the 'middle way' (not in a sectarian way) and I do
> what I
> > > can publically.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> ps.com,
> > "Ed Hoopes" <reefbreak_sd@>
> > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Another possible irrational explanation is that some humans may
> have
> > > > the ability to see the future.
> > > >
> > > > In competitive sports some players just seem to know what their
> > > > opponents will do. Maybe the same is true of some successful
> > > traders.
> > > > They can't explain it rationally, but they "just know it"
> > > >
> > > > Reef
> > > >
> > > > PS
> > > > Unfortunately, I don't have this trait.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> ps.com,
> > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > From the 2nd article:
> > > > >
> > > > > "Paul Taglia sees high-probability Window set-ups that the
> rest
> > > of us
> > > > > don't. I've seen him do this for nearly two years. He can't
> > > explain
> > > > > it...he simply says that he's looked at thousands and
> thousands
> > > of
> > > > > charts over his career and some charts simply look better to
> him
> > > than
> > > > > others. We once asked him to keep a journal to see if we
> could
> > > > > systematize what he saw. It was a useless exercise. He sees
> it
> > > but he
> > > > > can't explain it."
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > According to Occams Law the simplest explanation is usually
> the
> > > best.
> > > > >
> > > > > http://en.wikipedia <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplicity>
> > .org/wiki/Simplicity
> > > > >
> > > > > Possible explanations, of Paul Taglia's discretionary style
> are:
> > > > >
> > > > > a) He can 'see', or sense, the future in the charts,
> > > > > b) he has a set of rules that he learnt in the past (based on
> > > > > experience) and they have become second nature - possibly he
> has
> > > > > forgotten what they are or when he learnt them (or at least
> some
> > > of
> > > > > them)
> > > > > c) he has a set of rules, and he knows that, but this is an
> > > excellent
> > > > > posture to take if his game plan is never to reveal them to
> anyone
> > > > > d) he has a set of rules but has a playful nature OR likes to
> > > take
> > > > > the mickey out of his associates OR has a superiority complex
> and
> > > > > disdains the idiots who surround him
> > > > > e) he has an inferiority complex and needs the boost that
> comes
> > > from
> > > > > the adulation of others - this is an excellent strategy to
> > > establish
> > > > > mystique as a trader and achieve legendary status
> > > > > f) it is a great way to market ones employment value in a
> > > transient
> > > > > workplace (its a resume that can't be questioned to any
> extent
> > > either)
> > > > > g) some combination of a-f
> > > > > h) he has a set of rules (some conscious, some sub-conscious)
> but
> > > he
> > > > > can't be bothered explaining them (it is a form of energy
> > > > > conservation - an alternavtive version of this is that he
> could
> > > be a
> > > > > very focused trader and has eliminated the non-essentials,
> like
> > > > > defining his style OR chatting about his style.
> > > > >
> > > > > BTW irrationality is the common name for the shadow (I used
> the
> > > > > symbolic name).
> > > > >
> > > > > There is no irrationality in maths, programming etc which is
> > > probably
> > > > > why I quite like programmers etc.
> > > > >
> > > > > Trading myths are born out of, and perpetuated by
> irrationality.
> > > > >
> > > > > brian_z
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%
> 40yahoogroups.com>
> > ps.com, "wavemechanic" <timesarrow@>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > http://www.tradingm
> >
> <http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/lcbattlep/08272
> 0>
> > arkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/lcbattlep/082720
> > > > > 04-39801.cfm
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > http://www.tradingm
> >
> <http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/swingtrading/commentary/lcbattlep
> />
> > arkets.com/.site/swingtrading/commentary/lcbattlep/
> > > > > 09022004-39899.cfm
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: sidhartha70
> > > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%
> 40yahoogroups.com> ps.com
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 10:52 AM
> > > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: 'Rule Based'
> versus 'Discretionary'
> > > > > trading...
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I think you're right Brian. We do all use rules of some
> sort.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > But I guess discretionary traders don't use 'hard and fast'
> > > rules
> > > > > and
> > > > > > can't always define the same set of rules by which they
> > > choose to
> > > > > > define an entry or exit.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For example, as we all know, something as simple as
> defining
> > > a
> > > > > trend
> > > > > > programatically can be more problematic as you might at
> first
> > > > > think.
> > > > > > However, a good trader can see very quickly what state the
> > > market
> > > > > is
> > > > > > in by looking at various time frame of chart.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Likewise, divergences of various sorts can be easy to see
> > > with the
> > > > > > naked eye but difficult to code in their entirety.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Like driving a car, or a golf swing, you learn the 'rules'
> > > but
> > > > > when
> > > > > > you get really good you are no longer thinking rules...
> you've
> > > > > > effectively let go of the rules and are just 'doing'...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%
> 40yahoogroups.com>
> > ps.com, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Here is my definition:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > We are all rule based traders.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Mechanical Traders are a specialist group who have
> > > programmed
> > > > > > > computers to autotrade their rules OR automatically
> > > announce
> > > > > their
> > > > > > > rules via computer communications (audio, email, chart
> > > prompts,
> > > > > > > spoken text etc).
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I am prepared to continue the discussion with any seers,
> > > > > inituitives
> > > > > > > etc, who come forward, and adjust my definition to meet
> > > > > anything new
> > > > > > > that comes out of that.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > In advance I admit to the possibility of exceptions to
> the
> > > rule.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > brian_z
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%
> 40yahoogroups.com>
> > ps.com, "brian_z111"
> > > <brian_z111@>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >Descretionary traders make decisions that are based on
> > > > > personal
> > > > > > > > >knowledge and circumstances, perhaps using many
> factors
> > > > > unknown to
> > > > > > > > >themselves. Like which journal they read the night
> > > before.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > This is the nub of the question for sure, and the point
> > > that
> > > > > I am
> > > > > > > > investigating.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I suspect that when they (self-nominated DT's) think
> they
> > > are
> > > > > > > making
> > > > > > > > discretionary decisions they are in fact making rule
> > > based
> > > > > > > decisions.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > That is why I asked for specific examples
> > > of 'discretionary'
> > > > > > > decision
> > > > > > > > making e.g. I haven't seen Bilbo's chart yet but I
> > > consider
> > > > > it
> > > > > > > highly
> > > > > > > > unlikely that the decision about whether a trend is in
> > > place
> > > > > is a
> > > > > > > > discretionary decision - I can define a trend in
> several
> > > > > different
> > > > > > > > ways - all of them can readily be written as a rule (in
> > > words
> > > > > or
> > > > > > > with
> > > > > > > > code) - I don't care if the definitions are 'correct'
> or
> > > not
> > > > > as
> > > > > > > long as
> > > > > > > > the system that they are part of works i.e. my rules
> for
> > > a
> > > > > trend
> > > > > > > depend
> > > > > > > > on the context.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > As Dennis said, our rules might be difficult to
> program,
> > > > > causing us
> > > > > > > not
> > > > > > > > to automate the trade, but mentally we are still
> running
> > > the
> > > > > rules
> > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > if we are honest with ourselves we do know what the
> rules
> > > are.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >For a novice traders to try and mimic the techniques
> (of
> > > > > > > Discretionary
> > > > > > > > >Traders) without
> > > > > > > > >having similar backgrounds merits caution.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > What I am suggesting is that, over time, the sub-
> > > conscious
> > > > > mind
> > > > > > > will
> > > > > > > > automate what was intially habitual conscious
> behaviour,
> > > and
> > > > > even
> > > > > > > make
> > > > > > > > some improvements on it, so that 'we' can skip the
> > > conscious
> > > > > part
> > > > > > > for
> > > > > > > > some 'tasks' e.g. driving the car becomes second nature.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > That won't happen for new traders, in a short time, so
> > > they
> > > > > do need
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > persevere, be patient and not try to mimic people who
> > > have
> > > > > been
> > > > > > > around
> > > > > > > > for years.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > IMO formal (written) rules based
> > > > > trading/backtesting/optimization
> > > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > the best place to start - it grinds the basic lessons
> in
> > > very
> > > > > well.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > If anyone can look at a chart, and without recourse to
> > > any
> > > > > rules,
> > > > > > > know
> > > > > > > > which way the price is going to move and trade
> > > successfully
> > > > > (long
> > > > > > > > term) on that basis then that is something else
> > > altogether.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > If it is at all possible to do that then it definitely
> > > can't
> > > > > be
> > > > > > > taught.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > That is why I asked, "Anyone doing it?".
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > It is just like >100%PA returns - anything is possible
> > > but
> > > > > once
> > > > > > > someone
> > > > > > > > confirms that they have done it then it moves from the
> > > realm
> > > > > of
> > > > > > > > possibility into reality.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > In the meantime I will stick to my guns by saying
> > > > > that "except for
> > > > > > > > people who KNOW what the price is going to do everyone
> > > else
> > > > > is a
> > > > > > > rule
> > > > > > > > based trader and categorizing traders, as DT's or MT's,
> > > is
> > > > > > > arbitrary".
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > brian_z
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ------------------------------------
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
> > > only.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
> directly
> > > to
> > > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
> > > DEVLOG:
> > > > > > http://www.amibroke <http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/>
> r.com/devlog/
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For other support material please check also:
> > > > > > http://www.amibroke <http://www.amibroker.com/support.html>
> > r.com/support.html
> > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > No virus found in this incoming message.
> > > > > > Checked by AVG - http://www.avg. <http://www.avg.com> com
> > > > > > Version: 8.0.138 / Virus Database: 270.6.6/1623 - Release
> > > Date:
> > > > > 8/20/2008 8:12 AM
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
------------------------------------
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
For other support material please check also:
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
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