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I am also wondering:
- how did Joe know that it was 4/5 days, 200 ticks, 90% wins,
10.45AM. Did he computer test, write it down with pencil and paper or
see it in the tealeaves?
- if Joe had been a competent AB user, at the time, do you think it
would have been possible for him to code and automate that trade (if
he wanted to)?
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> Bill,
>
> If we can set aside the idea that we are in opposition perhaps you
> can help me.
>
> I haven't thought about the topic very much, in the past, but
digging
> into the topic, via this thread, I find:
>
> - it is a all a storm in a teacup
> - it is mainly a reflection of prejudicial viewpoints
> - people are ever so politely sugar coating and trying to
camouflage
> their prejudices
> - the Larry Connor articles are hackneyed, lame and lack
intellectual
> vigour (typical of the type of stuff that circulates around the
> trading traps)
> - there is very little that we can get out of the discussion, that
is
> any use at all for trading, (except perhaps that those who define
> themselves as DT's, and try to defend their position, would be
better
> off not bothering)
> - there might be some trading benefit in the analysis, for the few
> who can squeeze something out of the nuances
>
> So that I might get some tangible of benefit out of the discussion
> could you explain to me how
>
> - an observed 4 day/week * 200 tick * 10.45AM move
> - based on market behaviour
> - 90% Wins
> - actually traded until the market behaviour was rubbed out by
> regulators
>
> is Discretionary Trading?
>
> If I can understand what DT is I would like to try it out for
myself -
> it sounds like it can be very profitable.
>
> So far I just can't understand exactly what it is that I have to do.
>
> brian_z
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bilbo0211" <wjdandreta@> wrote:
> >
> > Bill,
> >
> > Those are interesting articles. Connors has some unusual views
(and
> > very expensive books <g>).
> >
> > Below is an example of how a perspicacious DT can gain a trading
> edge.
> > It's a quote from Joe Ross' Trading Tidbits.
> >
> > IIRC, the S&P contract in 1997 had a tick size of 0.05 worth $25
and
> > Joe's normal trading size for the S&P was 25 contracts
> (from "Trading
> > By The Minute").
> >
> > How much money was Joe making?
> >
> > " In 1997 I experienced a fantastic winning streak day trading
the
> S&P
> > 500, prior to electronic trading, and prior to the e-mini S&P
> 500.
> > In January of 1997 I noticed that at about 10:45 EST the market
> > moved up about 200 ticks, four days each week, better than 90%
of
> > the time. It never happened on Friday, but Monday through
> Thursday
> > were great. I had no clue as to why it did it or who or what
> caused
> > it. All I knew is that it worked. So at about 10:40 EST I would
> > begin watching. Within minutes the attempt to move up those
200
> or
> > so ticks would take place, and I would grab off about 100
ticks,
> > call it a day, and head for the Bahamian beach.
> >
> > Then, sadly, in August of that year it stopped working. The
> exchange
> > cut the S&P in half and introduced the E-mini. I have never
again
> > seen that phenomenon work, but believe me I have looked. "
> >
> > Bill
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "wavemechanic" <timesarrow@>
> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> >
>
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/lcbattlep/082720
> 04-39801.cfm
> > >
> > >
> >
>
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/swingtrading/commentary/lcbattlep/
> 09022004-39899.cfm
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: sidhartha70
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 10:52 AM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: 'Rule Based' versus 'Discretionary'
> > trading...
> > >
> > >
> > > I think you're right Brian. We do all use rules of some sort.
> > >
> > > But I guess discretionary traders don't use 'hard and fast'
> rules and
> > > can't always define the same set of rules by which they
choose
> to
> > > define an entry or exit.
> > >
> > > For example, as we all know, something as simple as defining
a
> trend
> > > programatically can be more problematic as you might at first
> think.
> > > However, a good trader can see very quickly what state the
> market is
> > > in by looking at various time frame of chart.
> > >
> > > Likewise, divergences of various sorts can be easy to see
with
> the
> > > naked eye but difficult to code in their entirety.
> > >
> > > Like driving a car, or a golf swing, you learn the 'rules'
but
> when
> > > you get really good you are no longer thinking rules... you've
> > > effectively let go of the rules and are just 'doing'...
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Here is my definition:
> > > >
> > > > We are all rule based traders.
> > > >
> > > > Mechanical Traders are a specialist group who have
programmed
> > > > computers to autotrade their rules OR automatically
announce
> their
> > > > rules via computer communications (audio, email, chart
> prompts,
> > > > spoken text etc).
> > > >
> > > > I am prepared to continue the discussion with any seers,
> > inituitives
> > > > etc, who come forward, and adjust my definition to meet
> anything
> > new
> > > > that comes out of that.
> > > >
> > > > In advance I admit to the possibility of exceptions to the
> rule.
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111"
<brian_z111@>
> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > >Descretionary traders make decisions that are based on
> personal
> > > > > >knowledge and circumstances, perhaps using many factors
> > unknown to
> > > > > >themselves. Like which journal they read the night
before.
> > > > >
> > > > > This is the nub of the question for sure, and the point
> that I am
> > > > > investigating.
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect that when they (self-nominated DT's) think they
> are
> > > > making
> > > > > discretionary decisions they are in fact making rule
based
> > > > decisions.
> > > > >
> > > > > That is why I asked for specific examples
> of 'discretionary'
> > > > decision
> > > > > making e.g. I haven't seen Bilbo's chart yet but I
consider
> it
> > > > highly
> > > > > unlikely that the decision about whether a trend is in
> place is a
> > > > > discretionary decision - I can define a trend in several
> > different
> > > > > ways - all of them can readily be written as a rule (in
> words or
> > > > with
> > > > > code) - I don't care if the definitions are 'correct' or
> not as
> > > > long as
> > > > > the system that they are part of works i.e. my rules for
a
> trend
> > > > depend
> > > > > on the context.
> > > > >
> > > > > As Dennis said, our rules might be difficult to program,
> > causing us
> > > > not
> > > > > to automate the trade, but mentally we are still running
the
> > rules
> > > > and
> > > > > if we are honest with ourselves we do know what the rules
> are.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >For a novice traders to try and mimic the techniques (of
> > > > Discretionary
> > > > > >Traders) without
> > > > > >having similar backgrounds merits caution.
> > > > >
> > > > > What I am suggesting is that, over time, the sub-
conscious
> mind
> > > > will
> > > > > automate what was intially habitual conscious behaviour,
> and even
> > > > make
> > > > > some improvements on it, so that 'we' can skip the
> conscious part
> > > > for
> > > > > some 'tasks' e.g. driving the car becomes second nature.
> > > > >
> > > > > That won't happen for new traders, in a short time, so
they
> do
> > need
> > > > to
> > > > > persevere, be patient and not try to mimic people who
have
> been
> > > > around
> > > > > for years.
> > > > >
> > > > > IMO formal (written) rules based
> trading/backtesting/optimization
> > > > is
> > > > > the best place to start - it grinds the basic lessons in
> very
> > well.
> > > > >
> > > > > If anyone can look at a chart, and without recourse to
any
> rules,
> > > > know
> > > > > which way the price is going to move and trade
successfully
> > (long
> > > > > term) on that basis then that is something else
altogether.
> > > > >
> > > > > If it is at all possible to do that then it definitely
> can't be
> > > > taught.
> > > > >
> > > > > That is why I asked, "Anyone doing it?".
> > > > >
> > > > > It is just like >100%PA returns - anything is possible
but
> once
> > > > someone
> > > > > confirms that they have done it then it moves from the
> realm of
> > > > > possibility into reality.
> > > > >
> > > > > In the meantime I will stick to my guns by saying
> that "except
> > for
> > > > > people who KNOW what the price is going to do everyone
else
> is a
> > > > rule
> > > > > based trader and categorizing traders, as DT's or MT's,
is
> > > > arbitrary".
> > > > >
> > > > > brian_z
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------------------------
> > >
> > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
> only.
> > >
> > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly
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> > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > >
> > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
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> > >
> > > For other support material please check also:
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> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > No virus found in this incoming message.
> > > Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com
> > > Version: 8.0.138 / Virus Database: 270.6.6/1623 - Release
Date:
> > 8/20/2008 8:12 AM
> > >
> >
>
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