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Hi Jan,
Is that a dicussion point or a zen koan to meditate on?
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jan Malmberg" <jan@xxx> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> I am a discretionary trader using a few rules at my discretion.
>
> Best regards / JM
>
>
>
> _____
>
> Från: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
För
> brian_z111
> Skickat: den 20 augusti 2008 14:30
> Till: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Ämne: [amibroker] Re: 'Rule Based' versus 'Discretionary' trading...
>
>
>
> >Descretionary traders make decisions that are based on personal
> >knowledge and circumstances, perhaps using many factors unknown to
> >themselves. Like which journal they read the night before.
>
> This is the nub of the question for sure, and the point that I am
> investigating.
>
> I suspect that when they (self-nominated DT's) think they are
making
> discretionary decisions they are in fact making rule based
decisions.
>
> That is why I asked for specific examples of 'discretionary'
decision
> making e.g. I haven't seen Bilbo's chart yet but I consider it
highly
> unlikely that the decision about whether a trend is in place is a
> discretionary decision - I can define a trend in several different
> ways - all of them can readily be written as a rule (in words or
with
> code) - I don't care if the definitions are 'correct' or not as
long as
> the system that they are part of works i.e. my rules for a trend
depend
> on the context.
>
> As Dennis said, our rules might be difficult to program, causing us
not
> to automate the trade, but mentally we are still running the rules
and
> if we are honest with ourselves we do know what the rules are.
>
> >For a novice traders to try and mimic the techniques (of
Discretionary
> >Traders) without
> >having similar backgrounds merits caution.
>
> What I am suggesting is that, over time, the sub-conscious mind
will
> automate what was intially habitual conscious behaviour, and even
make
> some improvements on it, so that 'we' can skip the conscious part
for
> some 'tasks' e.g. driving the car becomes second nature.
>
> That won't happen for new traders, in a short time, so they do need
to
> persevere, be patient and not try to mimic people who have been
around
> for years.
>
> IMO formal (written) rules based trading/backtesting/optimization
is
> the best place to start - it grinds the basic lessons in very well.
>
> If anyone can look at a chart, and without recourse to any rules,
know
> which way the price is going to move and trade successfully (long
> term) on that basis then that is something else altogether.
>
> If it is at all possible to do that then it definitely can't be
taught.
>
> That is why I asked, "Anyone doing it?".
>
> It is just like >100%PA returns - anything is possible but once
someone
> confirms that they have done it then it moves from the realm of
> possibility into reality.
>
> In the meantime I will stick to my guns by saying that "except for
> people who KNOW what the price is going to do everyone else is a
rule
> based trader and categorizing traders, as DT's or MT's, is
arbitrary".
>
> brian_z
>
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