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Louis,
I don't think that discretionary trading is more risky than systematic
trading if you apply sound money management. Without that both
approaches can result in a disaster.
Regards,
Thomas
:
> Hi Thomas,
>
> Thanks for your message. You understood *exactly *what my problem
> is. I lost *A LOT* of money with discretionary trading last Fall,
> and this is why I want to build a solid system; something that will
> really work. I don't want to get back to discretionnary trading
> because I've seen the risks, and my gf stepbrother is doing this
> all-day long and he has so much stress I sometimes fear he will not
> live a long life. Discretionnary is so difficult, because you risk
> everything in a second... But when you have a good system, you just
> follow it.
>
> But, of course, you stated the problem correctly: the idea is to be
> able to build such system. And so far it is a complete failure on my
> side.
>
> Louis
>
> 2008/7/31 Thomas Ludwig <Thomas.Ludwig@xxxxxx>
>
> > > Hi people,
> > >
> > > I am a discretionary trader myself.
> >
> > So am I. I'm combining relative strength, trendlines, momentum and
> > general sentiment (useful websites are
> > http://www.indexindicators.com/ and
> > http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/inv_intel
> >.aspx), I place strict stop-loss orders and don't risk too much of
> > my capital in any single trade. I'm not a full-time trader (only
> > EOD and trading at next day's open) but I'm making money - not
> > enough money to live from, though. ;-)
> >
> > But I can understand Louis' problem: Quite a while ago I started
> > thinking about trading the systematic way. I've tested and modified
> > hundreds of trading systems, including, e.g., breakout systems, all
> > types of adaptive indicators and using ADX or r-squared to
> > distinguish trending from non-trending situations. Oh, some of them
> > had absolutely beautiful equity curves after optimization. But most
> > of them failed miserably after performing an OOS test. And after TJ
> > added walk-forward analysis (which I've always considered the
> > ultimate reality check since reading the first edition of Pardo's
> > book) I've applied that approach to all my systems. Result: So far,
> > I haven't found any system worth being traded.
> >
> > I'm not giving up searching for good systems because I think they
> > would save me valuable time and might make it possible to trade
> > more markets. But in the meantime I'll stick to my discretionary
> > approach <sigh>.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Thomas
> >
> > > The whole discussion has now evolved to the point of know
> > > yourself etcetera. Then, why do you argue about discretionary
> > > versus system? Is it not obvious to you that some people s
> > > personality calls for a trading system, while others personality
> > > calls for a discretionary approach.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It seems to me that the focus of the discussion has been lost.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Best regards / JM
> > >
> > > _____
> > >
> > > Från: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] För sidhartha70
> > > Skickat: den 31 juli 2008 15:56
> > > Till: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Ämne: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Ohh Paul... I agree about knowing yourself as I said in my answer
> > > to Brian. But that's a given surely...?? You only learn that from
> > > years of trading and observing yourself... you can of course
> > > become informed on the subject of yourself... there's plenty of
> > > literature on it... Mark Douglas obviously.
> > >
> > > But I stand by what I said... you can become a great trader by
> > > really understanding trendlines, support & resistance in it's
> > > many forms and studying price & volume action...
> > >
> > > I know it... because I've seen it... and I've done it.
> > >
> > > You have your techniques Paul... and good luck to you. Great if
> > > they work for you. For me, this is what has worked for me...
> > >
> > > Henrik thanks for your response. Good to see others agree.
> > >
> > > Paul, might I suggest you get out more and make some more human
> > > connections... you'd probably find you'd be happier, less angry,
> > > less arrogant, less superior and might even enjoy some of this
> > > money you make trading...
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogroups.com
> > >>
> > >
> > > ps.com,
> > >
> > > "Paul Ho" <paul.tsho@xxx> wrote:
> > > > I'm still waiting for your to say something sensible, that's of
> > > > value,
> > > >
> > > > > rather than just dig everyone out...???
> > > >
> > > > LOL, I just told you. YOu cant become a good trader until you
> > > > know yourself, really know yourself. Knowing how to draw a few
> > > > lines makes you a TA guy, not a trader. understanding the
> > > > market makes you a market analyst. Even know how to develop a
> > > > system doesnt make you a trader either, you are merely a system
> > > > developer. When you master yourself, you are on your way to
> > > > become a real trader. Just because you've been involved in
> > > > trading for years, seeing others making millions, no more makes
> > > > your a trader than me an olympian just because I've been
> > > > watching olypmics for the last 45 years. You might think I'm
> > > > slagging you off, but in years to come, you will find out for
> > > > yourself whats true.
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogroups.c
> > > >om>
> > > >
> > > > ps.com,
> > >
> > > "sidhartha70" <sidhartha70@>
> > >
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > Paul,
> > > > >
> > > > > I programme too... nothing wrong with programming and making
> > > > > your
> > > >
> > > > life
> > > >
> > > > > easier. And nothing wrong with asking for someone to 'throw
> > > > > you a bone' in that goal... I'm new to AFL. So what??
> > > > >
> > > > > I've been involved in trading for many years... market
> > > > > making, index arbitrage, statistical arbitrage, long/short
> > > > > prop etc.. many years. And some of the best money makers I've
> > > > > ever seen have been traders, not system traders, who
> > > > > genuinely have a great read of the market based off tape
> > > > > reading skills... they have achieved returns, consistently,
> > > > > that systems traders can only dream of...
> > > > >
> > > > > I've traded both... systems and otherwise... you can
> > > > > programme all
> > > >
> > > > the
> > > >
> > > > > most complicated indictaors you like... they are all based on
> > > > > the
> > > >
> > > > same
> > > >
> > > > > things tape reading is... which is price & volume action...
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm still waiting for your to say something sensible, that's
> > > > > of
> > > >
> > > > value,
> > > >
> > > > > rather than just dig everyone out...???
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogroups
> > > > >.com>
> > > > >
> > > > > ps.com,
> > >
> > > "Paul Ho" <paul.tsho@> wrote:
> > > > > > learn everything you can
> > > > > > about trendlines, support & resistance and the old tape
> > > > > > reading
> > > >
> > > > skills
> > > >
> > > > > > and you will be miles ahead of 'system developers' in terms
> > > > > > of actually understanding the markets and becoming a better
> > > > > > trader. .......
> > > > > > So you think understanding a few lines on the chart you
> > > > > > will
> > > >
> > > > become
> > > >
> > > > > a better
> > > > >
> > > > > > trader!!!
> > > > > > So you think understanding the market will make you a
> > > > > > better
> > > >
> > > > trader!!!
> > > >
> > > > > > So you think you are miles ahead just because you know how
> > > > > > to
> > > >
> > > > draw a
> > > >
> > > > > lines
> > > > >
> > > > > > rather than a system trader who write a few hundred lines
> > > > > > of
> > > >
> > > > codes.
> > > >
> > > > > > NONE OF THE ABOVE WILL MAKE YOU A GOOD TRADER
> > > > > > YOU WILL ONLY BECOME A GOOD TRADER IF YOU KNOW YOUSELF.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I'LL KEEP THIS IN A SAFE PLACE AND USE IT AS A REPLY WHEN
> > > > > > YOU ASK
> > > > >
> > > > > SOMEONE TO
> > > > >
> > > > > > THROW YOU A BONE.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ________________________________
> > > > > >
> > > > > > From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogrou
> > > > > >ps.com>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ps.com
> > > >
> > > > [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogroups.c
> > > >om>
> > > >
> > > > ps.com]
> > > >
> > > > > > On Behalf Of sidhartha70
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, 31 July 2008 10:47 PM
> > > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogrou
> > > > > >ps.com>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ps.com Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making
> > > > > > money?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Louis,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Here's my tip... worth it's weight in gold. I've been doing
> > > >
> > > > this for
> > > >
> > > > > > a
> > > > > > long time...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Stop looking for the holy grail system... learn everything
> > > >
> > > > you can
> > > >
> > > > > > about trendlines, support & resistance and the old tape
> > > >
> > > > reading
> > > >
> > > > > > skills
> > > > > > and you will be miles ahead of 'system developers' in terms
> > > > > > of actually understanding the markets and becoming a better
> > > >
> > > > trader.
> > > >
> > > > > > Too many people spend far too much time trying to develop
> > > >
> > > > a 'system'
> > > >
> > > > > > rather than becoming a better trader.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogrou
> > > > > >ps.com>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ps.com
> > > > > > <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com<amibroker%2540yahoogrou
> > > > > >ps.com>>
> >
> > , "Louis P."
> >
> > > > > > <rockprog80@>
> > > >
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Hi,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or
> > > >
> > > > making a
> > > >
> > > > > > living
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > with AB and trading?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months
> > > > > > > now
> > > >
> > > > and
> > > >
> > > > > > didn't find
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data,
> > > >
> > > > then
> > > >
> > > > > > hourly,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing
> > > > > > > seems
> > > > > >
> > > > > > satisfying.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing
> > > > > > > seems
> > > >
> > > > to
> > > >
> > > > > > work.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if
> > > >
> > > > so, at
> > > >
> > > > > > which
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database;
> > > > > > > it
> > > >
> > > > seems
> > > >
> > > > > > even
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making
> > > >
> > > > money
> > > >
> > > > > > with
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > 1-minute?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Louis
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> >
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> >
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> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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> >
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
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