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[amibroker] Re: Sector Analysis



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d

No.

Thanks.

I get caught on that one from time to time.
I am not sure if Yahoo throws up the old posts or someone drags them 
up

Anyway, Louis seems happy with it.

Apparently times don't change.


brian_z


--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dingo" <dingo@xxx> wrote:
>
> You ARE aware that you were replying to a post from 6 years ago?
> 
> d 
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
> > [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of brian_z111
> > Sent: Tuesday, July 08, 2008 11:12 PM
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Sector Analysis
> > 
> > Hi Louis,
> > 
> > 
> > I think that you should be happy with the little bit of extra 
detail, 
> > about timeframes, that I put in my answer for Ara (I basically 
> > answered your question there).
> > 
> > 
> > Something personal for you (I don't give an absolute answer 
because 
> > that would fence you in - I give suggestive, illustrative answers 
to 
> > stimulate you to your own discoveries):
> > 
> > We can't buy experience so these things will gel for you later if 
you 
> > persevere.
> > 
> > You like to philosophise - so do I, although I am untrained.
> > Philosophy will pay off for you both in life and trading.
> > You can take a break from it though and get some easy gains with 
a 
> > purely pragmatic approach.
> > 
> > So, one of the pragmatic reasons for choosing a timeframe is the 
> > possible net gain (ave % movement - commissions) - we are not all 
> > paying the same commissions so 'what works' varies between 
traders.
> > 
> > Other pragmatic reason could be your temperament e.g. Herman 
likes 
> > working with cutting edge ideas/code so he did a lot of work to 
> > pioneer ATR applications for AB and ATR ticks himself (AFAIK).
> > 
> > I am on the other side if the world, with Australian commissions, 
> > plus, I just make it with very average speed broadband, since I 
live 
> > in regional Australia and only qualify for it courtesy of the 
fact 
> > that I am right at the end of a 15KLM copper cable from the 
nearest 
> > exchange (another 1k up the road and I would have to move house 
to be 
> > able to trade) - facts like this plus the 'IT overheads' of 
tick/ATR 
> > trading  keep my preferences elsewhere (not to say I won't do it 
in 
> > the future to stretch my skills etc or if the market DICTATES 
that I 
> > trade that way).
> > 
> > 
> > Re the trade I mentioned in Ara's post:
> > 
> > I can see the trade in RT charts irrespective of whether they are 
2, 
> > 5  or 10 minute charts - that is the nature of that particular 
trade -
> >  it doesn't necessarily apply to other trades - it starts with 
the 
> > strategy - in this case the charts confirm the strategy in 
letters  
> > as big as the neon sign outside your movie house.
> > 
> > People are going to scoff at this but I could even have a winning 
> > year, with that trade, using only Yahoo delayed intraday data (I 
> > would simply modify the trade to make it work with those 
> > charts/timeframes) - it just wouldn't pay as much, in terms of 
annual 
> > return, as running it in RT (keep in mind that my broker(s) run 
RT 
> > charts).
> > 
> > 
> > Re momentum/trend/timeframes
> > 
> > It isn't anything deep or meaningful.
> > 
> > Few of us operate with the aim of making money out of a static 
> > market, so we rely on movement.
> > 
> > Trend only has two playable directions.
> > 
> > Momentum has rate (distance per time).
> > If a stock moves up 1% day, when nothing else does, then it is 
> > momentum (for that day).
> > Momentum is relative, to other stocks and to the timeframe (look 
out 
> > because local events can cause a stock to have short term 
momentum 
> > compared to long term/endemic momentum - short term/ stock 
specific 
> > momentum probably won't last beyond a few days but it is playable 
in 
> > that time/space - also it can reverberate for a while and replay 
OR 
> > even reverse with playable negative momentum i.e. go back to 
where it 
> > came from, or part of the way).
> > 
> > 
> > Re the three ducks:
> > 
> > - IMO that was a continuation trend trade - granted it could be 
> > considered momentum also - depending on the semantics - it relied 
on 
> > an established trend, with a confirming pivot, to signal that the 
> > trend would continue (I don't necessarily accept an MA as a trend 
> > indicator but for the sake of the argument) - if the rules of 
that 
> > trade stipulated that the pivot required a > 1% move then it 
would be 
> > a momentum trade (depending on where you measure the % change)
> > - if you are making a continuation trade then you missed the 
start of 
> > the trend
> > - any playable trend/momentum, in one timeframe, must have it's 
> > beginning in a lower timeframe
> > - how low should you go? - there is absolutely no point in going 
one 
> > timeframe below what stacks up at the pragmatic level (why drill 
down 
> > to ticks if my commissions/internet won't allow me to trade 
> > profitably at that level?)
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > brian_z
> > 
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis Préfontaine" 
> > <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi Brian,
> > > 
> > > I really enjoyed reading your last post.  You said that you are 
> > limited when
> > > talking english... well you sure talk well enough for me to 
> > understand you
> > > even if I am *very* limited in that matter.
> > > 
> > > The thing that strucked me in your post is the time question.  
> > That's
> > > somethingthat have been puzzling me for the last weeks.  I just 
> > can't make
> > > my mind on the timeframe I want to work with.
> > > 
> > > I used to work with 15-minute bars, but then I realized that 
there 
> > was a
> > > maximum number of streaming symbols, so I tried to find a way 
to be 
> > able to
> > > choose the tickers to go in a watchlist with a maximum number 
of 
> > 500... but
> > > that's very difficult (if not impossible) to do.
> > > 
> > > I'd like to read more from you about timeframe and what you 
> > consider can be
> > > done to work with them in a better way.
> > > 
> > > Thank you,
> > > 
> > > Louis
> > > 
> > > 2008/7/8 brian_z111 <brian_z111@>:
> > > 
> > > >   Jayson,
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for your post.
> > > >
> > > > I have an interest in the subject and don't mind to share a 
> > little.
> > > >
> > > > My batteries are a bit flat from a heavy weekend so it won't 
be my
> > > > best effort.
> > > >
> > > > Lightly referencing posts in this thread.
> > > >
> > > > Sectors:
> > > >
> > > > a) it is worth clarifying definitions e.g S&P versus ICB (the 
> > Boston
> > > > tea party is still ongoing so London/NewYork have to do it
> > > > differently) plus there are other players in the sector game
> > > > b) then there are sub-sectors, industries etc
> > > > c) the business activities, of the constituents of a sector, 
and
> > > > their membership of a sector, don't necessarily equate.
> > > > d) you can trade the sectors, themselves, as a sector 
ETF/option 
> > or
> > > > other instrument - this possibility tends to fade away 
outside of
> > > > US/Euro (perhaps not for those with local knowledge - it just 
> > happens
> > > > that I am one of those poor people who is limited to speaking
> > > > english).
> > > >
> > > > Some random links (no idea if they are good/useful but I 
threw 
> > them
> > > > in anyway) - there are plenty more to be googled:
> > > >
> > > > http://www.market-topology.com/
> > > > http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/
> > > >
> > > > How can we find top sector/industry/stock in AB?
> > > >
> > > > Technically these things are very easy to do.
> > > > More important is selecting a good strategy in the first 
place.
> > > >
> > > > IMO the thing to look out for is that 'best' depends on your
> > > > definition of 'best' AND also depends on the timeframe (as I 
told
> > > > Dingo - momentum, direction and time are all interelated) - 
the 
> > top
> > > > daily sector might not be the top weekly sector (I chose my
> > > > timeframes for other reasons e.g. statistical smoothing == 
high
> > > > frequency trading) - highest high of x days or Relative 
> > Performance
> > > > measures,as mentioned by Jayson are certainly worthwhile 
thinking
> > > > about (I am not limited to that though).
> > > >
> > > > How do we use it - what are the typcal W/L ratios - how much 
can 
> > we
> > > > win etc?
> > > >
> > > > Per my previous comments:
> > > >
> > > > - the long term market is the rational market (based on 
company
> > > > valuations) e.g. a stock/sector with stable and growing
> > > > earnings/dividends can not keep going down forever - or vice 
versa
> > > > (however they can go down an awful long way 'with the tide' 
so 
> > don't
> > > > pre-empt/go against what the charts are telling us).
> > > >
> > > > Note: we saw, in the dot com bubble, the most extreme example 
ever
> > (?)
> > > > of how pure speculation pushed IT stock prices to unheard of
> > > > valuationsNOT before bursting.
> > > >
> > > > - the short term market is the irrational market - it is 
almost a
> > > > random walk (if we backtest we find so many of our seemingly 
good
> > > > ideas return to near random behaviour over time) - we have to 
be
> > > > competent with evaluation (stats) etc but stats can not 100% 
> > confirm
> > > > that we are not being 'fooled by randomness' - IMO many times 
that
> > > > traders think they had a good system that was then traded to 
> > failure
> > > > etc was really an instance of chance luck that faded away 
with 
> > time.
> > > >
> > > > However - human nature is persistant and predictable (as per
> > > > Siddharthas post there are many examples of market 
inefficiencies,
> > > > based on the mechanics of the market, institutional 
behaviour, 
> > human
> > > > behaviour, that exist in the market today - not all are short 
term
> > > > e.g. if you follow a good stock all the way down and then 
wait for
> > > > the upturn signals then this long term play will 'beat the 
market'
> > > > for sure - give or take some other techiques thrown in and 
> > assuming
> > > > random acts of the stock market gods don't overturn the whole 
> > game)
> > > >
> > > > If we can find an edge, based on the psychology of the 
market, 
> > then I
> > > > predict we will find a trade that:
> > > >
> > > > - persists for a long time,
> > > > - makes unbelievable W/L ratios,stats, % returns etc (defies 
the 
> > odds)
> > > > - probably will survive a lot of small freelance traders 
playing 
> > the
> > > > same game
> > > >
> > > > (thanks to all for a good thread and also the 'new user' 
thread 
> > that
> > > > I don't have time to contribute to but enjoyed reading - 
> > especially
> > > > Siddharthas posts - anything to do with HermanHesse?)
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>, "Jayson"
> > > > <jcasavant@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > All;
> > > > >
> > > > > A great deal of my work revolves around sector analysis. I 
like 
> > to
> > > > select
> > > > > stocks whose sectors are strong or advancing. one way to 
gauge a
> > > > sectors
> > > > > strength is to measure its components closing price against
> > > > previous prices.
> > > > > I like to use 25 day new highs as my gauge. The enclosed 
scan 
> > ( !
> > > > sector
> > > > > analysis) creates a list of 13 composite symbols. One for 
each 
> > of
> > > > the 12
> > > > > sectors plus one of the entire universe under study. By 
default 
> > the
> > > > > composites will be stored in group to 253.
> > > > >
> > > > > To run the scan first choose a universe of stocks. your 
range
> > > > should equal
> > > > > one day. On a large universe your initial scan will take a 
few
> > > > minutes.
> > > > >
> > > > > to view the composites I use a market Strength indicator 
(CMF or
> > > > your
> > > > > favorite) as well as the custom indicator, Sector View. this
> > > > indicator
> > > > > produces a smooth oscillator in histogram form. readings 
above 0
> > > > indicate
> > > > > market strength, below zero indicate weakness. The number
> > > > indicates the %
> > > > > of stocks within a given sector that have reached new 25 
day 
> > highs
> > > > or Lows.
> > > > > in my bottom pane I have a simple line plot and include 
volume 
> > for
> > > > the
> > > > > sector.
> > > > >
> > > > > The resulting tab should look something like this....
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > I have collected this data with XL for over year and found 
to be
> > > > very
> > > > > useful. AB makes my life so much easier! there may very well
> > > > > be a more efficient way to calculate these composites, I'm 
open 
> > to
> > > > any
> > > > > suggestions or improvements. btw a simple exploration of 
group 
> > 253
> > > > will
> > > > > provide a snapshot of RS by each sector. Those falling above
> > > > ~Universe are
> > > > > out performing, those below are under performing. I hope 
some of
> > > > you may
> > > > > find this useful.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards,
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Jayson
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >  
> > > >
> > >
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > ------------------------------------
> > 
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> > 
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to 
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > 
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> > 
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > 
> > 
> >
>



------------------------------------

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