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As Yuki said, "they are both right, but not at the same time".
The company, and dicussion, around the coffee table is good but as
Ralph Vince said "trading is not an intellectual exercise, it is more
like a street fight".
Forget right or wrong - get in there and beat the heck out of every
opponent (mean reversion, trend trading, Hurst, S/R) what ever comes
along.
(that means work them over with backtesting - what is the most you
can squeeze out of that style e.g. a reversion to mean trade - can
you do better if you change it up a bit - when you reach exhaustion
point with that trade then you know exactly what its limits are - be
honest with yourself - have you really squeezed all of the juice out
of that style - after a while you start to see that sometimes the
same opponent returns in another outfit and you can't be bothered
beating up on the same old foe over and over).
When they are all defeated keep your eyes peeled and your nerves
steeled for any new challengers who are coming along and give them a
hiding too.
P.S. anyone can see my trading biases but they can also see I am
thinking about, and paying respect to, trading styles that don't come
naturally to me.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis Préfontaine"
<rockprog80@xxx> wrote:
>
> Thanks Brian. Indeed, that looks like prehistoric stuff...
>
> BTW, what is your opinion about the S/R breakout vs reversion to
mean
> debate?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Louis
>
> 2008/5/8 brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxx>:
>
> > If your trading system rules are based on things like "buy when
the
> > short term moving ave crosses the long term moving ave".
> >
> > The MA is looking back so many periods to make its calculation
e.g. MA
> > (C,15) is looking back 15 periods.
> >
> > If you test a range of MA periods, to select your best MA
crossover
> > system, then you are optimising the lookback period (at least
that is
> > what I mean).
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>, "Louis
> > Préfontaine"
> > <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi Brian and everyone,
> > >
> > > What exactly do you mean by "optimisation of lookback period"?
> > >
> > > I had a lot of fun reading this thread. I wonder what is better:
> > > support/resistance breakout or reversion to mean. Worked with
> > both; don't
> > > know yet what works better. I've seen people been sure of their
> > opinions,
> > > but I'd like to read some arguments...
> > >
> > > Louis
> > >
> > > 2008/5/8 brian_z111 <brian_z111@>:
> > >
> > > > It's just an opinion, but it is based on observation.
> > > >
> > > > I'm referring to systems designed by optimising lookback
periods.
> > > >
> > > > I'm happy to be proved wrong ...so you are saying we can
achieve
> > > > better than 30-40%PA, on long term average (through various
market
> > > > cycles) using 'optimisation of lookback period' techniques?
(EOD,
> > no
> > > > leveraging).
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>,
> >
> > > > "bilbo0211" <bilbod@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > "I will stick to my prediction that around 30%PA EOD
trading is
> > a
> > > > > limit for indicators that use lookback periods and that to
> > achieve
> > > > > more than this requires a different approach (as I say you
are
> > both
> > > > > correct except I believe that Steve is talking about >30%PA
> > > > returns)."
> > > > >
> > > > > Is this just your opinion or do you have something that
> > approaches
> > > > > 'scientific proof' of this allegation?
> > > > >
> > > > > In "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J M
Hurst,
> > the
> > > > > author claims the theoretical maximum annual ROI for stock
> > trading
> > > > is
> > > > > 2400%. ROI is directly related to the holding period for
each
> > trade
> > > > > and being fully invested at all times (the 'Magic' is in the
> > power
> > > > of
> > > > > compounding).
> > > > >
> > > > > Hurst recorded the results of a 6 week real time trading
> > experiment
> > > > in
> > > > > which his performance trading high beta stocks approached
his
> > > > > theoretical maximum annual ROI.
> > > > >
> > > > > Hurst waited until the dominant cycles in his trading
instrument
> > > > were
> > > > > in alignment before trading (this is also called multiple
time
> > frame
> > > > > or multiple fractal alignment). He primarily used daily and
> > weekly
> > > > charts.
> > > > >
> > > > > The theoretical maximum ROI is actually much higher than
2400%
> > if
> > > > you
> > > > > use intraday charts and leveraged trading instruments.
> > > > >
> > > > > If you look in the Amibroker Trading System Yahoo group, you
> > will
> > > > find
> > > > > a poll of results of people's mechanical trading systems.
IIRC,
> > the
> > > > > best ones listed returned over 400% per year.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bill
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 20 - (- 9.3_ == approx delta 30% PA in my books.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks Yuki for confirming this.
> > > > > > Now I don't have to post a 30% system (as I promised
Louis) to
> > > > prove
> > > > > > my benchmark is correct.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Actually I agree with both you and Steve (the real
problem is
> > > > > > semantics since IMO close analysis would show that most
of us
> > are
> > > > > > moementum traders and also that most of us are using a
kind of
> > > > S/R in
> > > > > > some way - the difference is how we perceive and define
these
> > > > things).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I will stick to my prediction that around 30%PA EOD
trading
> > is a
> > > > > > limit for indicators that use lookback periods and that to
> > > > achieve
> > > > > > more than this requires a different approach (as I say
you are
> > > > both
> > > > > > correct except I believe that Steve is talking about >30%
PA
> > > > returns).
> > > > > >
> > > > > > (Steve - care to confirm?)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > brian_z
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>, Yuki
> >
> > > > Taga <yukitaga@> wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Gee, then I guess I should give back my ~20 percent a
year
> > that
> > > > is
> > > > > > > largely based on short-term momentum swings, yes? (I'm
> > sitting
> > > > plus
> > > > > > > 13 percent YTD this year already, as of yesterday,
versus -
> > 9.3
> > > > > > > percent for my Nikkei 225 benchmark.)
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > You do have to be agile however. And you cannot overstay
> > your
> > > > > > > welcome. But the money is there for momentum systems if
> > > > designed
> > > > > > > and tested properly.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > "Support" exists, but everyone knows where it is.
Exactly
> > > > where it
> > > > > > > is. And somebody (I'll leave it to you to guess who) is
> > going
> > > > to
> > > > > > > ring the bell and tell you that (resistance failed) or
> > (support
> > > > > > > failed). What are you going to do, then? You're going to
> > stop
> > > > > > > yourself out of course. With a loser.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Which is likely to be more profitable, and for a longer
> > period
> > > > of
> > > > > > > time? Systems that compel you to do the psychologically
> > > > difficult,
> > > > > > > or systems that suggest that you do the patently
obvious?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Is there anyone beyond 7th grade that doesn't know where
> > > > support and
> > > > > > > resistance is? Are there great systems that rely on
widely
> > > > known
> > > > > > > community knowledge?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Look for a system that has good metrics, but a system
that
> > also
> > > > > > > suggests that what you need to do will be
psychologically
> > > > difficult
> > > > > > > for you to do, in spite of having back-tested results
> > > > indicating
> > > > > > that
> > > > > > > you are foolish if you *don't* do it. Then you are good
to
> > go,
> > > > as
> > > > > > > they say. Good to go as long as you do it, of course.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If your system is easy to follow (by that, I mean that
it's
> > > > > > > psychologically easy for you to make the trades), it's
> > probably
> > > > a
> > > > > > > loser. And vice-versa. The best systems have good
metrics,
> > yet
> > > > > > > despite that they almost defy the trader
(psychologically)
> > to
> > > > make
> > > > > > > the trades. There is no free lunch.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Yuki
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Thursday, May 8, 2008, 11:50:01 AM, you wrote:
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> Anthony,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your precious
time
> > on
> > > > this
> > > > > > > s> earth with this kind of drivel. Chasing price with
> > > > momentum
> > > > > > > s> indicators is not going to get you where you want to
be.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> Coming up with a support/resistance system is all you
> > need
> > > > to
> > > > > > make
> > > > > > > s> whatever you want from the markets.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> I've seen hundreds of traders get wiped out trying
to go
> > on
> > > > the
> > > > > > path
> > > > > > > s> you're following and all of the successful traders
I've
> > been
> > > > > > around
> > > > > > > s> in the e-mini futures have used S/R as the
foundation of
> > > > their
> > > > > > > s> trading methodology.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> And, above all, embrace your emotions in trading
because
> > > > they
> > > > > > teach
> > > > > > > s> you what you should and shouldn't do going forward.
> > > > Computers
> > > > > > learn
> > > > > > > s> nothing while you learn from every win and loss you
make.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> Finding an edge in trading is easy. It's only hard if
> > > > you're
> > > > > > using a
> > > > > > > s> computer to find a needle in a haystack because you
> > didn't
> > > > make
> > > > > > a
> > > > > > > s> good enough investment in real-time observations of
the
> > > > markets
> > > > > > while
> > > > > > > s> researching an edge you'd like to trade.. That makes
all
> > > > the
> > > > > > > s> difference in the world for knowing what works and
what
> > > > doesn't.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> You'll come up with 10 edges to trade if you put the
> > time in
> > > > to
> > > > > > > s> experience a live market on a regular basis without
> > trying
> > > > so
> > > > > > hard.
> > > > > > > s> It will bring out your imagination and creativity to
find
> > > > what
> > > > > > you're
> > > > > > > s> looking for.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> I wish someone had told me that 4.5 years ago when I
> > started
> > > > > > trading
> > > > > > > s> the ER2 e-mini. It would have saved me a lot of time
> > > > chasing
> > > > > > > s> nonsense.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>,
> >
> > > > "ihsaham" <ihsaham@> wrote:
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Hai Tomasz,
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> This is simple Jake Bernstein Momentum Formula for
chart
> > and
> > > > > > > s> scanner.
> > > > > > > >> Please help me give arrow buy and sell. Buy arrow is
> > Green
> > > > > > colour
> > > > > > > s> and
> > > > > > > >> Sell Arrow is Red Colour.
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> I really appreciate and thanks for you in advance.
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Best Regards,
> > > > > > > >> Anthony Idic
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> _SECTION_BEGIN(" $ Momentum ");
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> /* Bernstein Momentum Indicator */
> > > > > > > >> /* Set Scaling to Automatic, Show dates On, Percent
On,
> > > > Middle
> > > > > > On */
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Title = "Bernstein MOM Close - Ref(Close,-7)";
> > > > > > > >> GraphXSpace = 5;
> > > > > > > >> Graph0 = MA(Close - Ref(Close,-7),1);
> > > > > > > >> Graph0Style = 5;
> > > > > > > >> Graph0Color = 29;
> > > > > > > >> Graph1 = MA(Graph0,5);
> > > > > > > >> Graph1Style = 1;
> > > > > > > >> Graph1Color = 32;
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> DaysAgo =Optimize("DaysAgo",-28,-40,-16,4);
> > > > > > > >> Fast = Optimize("Fast", 1, 1,5,1);
> > > > > > > >> Slow = Optimize("Slow",28,16,40,4);
> > > > > > > >> /* Note: It is merely a coincidence that DaysAgo and
Slow
> > > > use
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > >> same parameter set. */
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Buy = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
> > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Sell = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
> > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Short = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow),
> > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast) );
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > > >> Cover = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Fast),
> > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo),Slow) );
> > > > > > > >> _SECTION_END();
> > > > > > > >>
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
------------------------------------
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