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Louis,
I have been an Amibroker user for over 2 years now, and wanted to
offer a few ideas for you to think about. I trade equities almost
exlusively, so my indicators are geared towards stocks more than
commodities. Here is one trader's brain dump :)
1. Moving averages work well for me. If you backtest pullbacks
(defined however you wish, by % change or by RSI level or whatever
other indicator you wish to use, not important) you will see how
stocks act differently whether they are trading above or below
certain moving averages, say a 200 day SMA, for instance. I think
this in itself will give you something to build upon, and open up a
world of trading ideas. Larry Connors has some good research in this
area, while I find his offerings a little too promotional for my
liking, you can use his ideas and backtest them yourself as I have.
2. Don't resrict yourself to an individual instrument or index, think
about intermarket relationships. To that end, try to get your hands
on ANY Ned Davis Research charts you can find in the public domain.
It will open another world of ideas in regards to things such as
moving averages of breadth indicators, to give just one example.
Also grab "The Quantification Predicament" which earned NDR analyst
Timothy Hayes the 1996 Charles H. Dow Award.
3. Backtest and use moving averages in relation to sentiment
indicators such as put/call ratios and the bull-bear type investor
surveys.
4. If you want to trade breakouts, think and backtest whether it
makes more sense to buy at the point of a breakout, or after a
pullback to the point of a breakout (or thereabouts). I have found
my success with the later method.
5. You can combine both a trend following and a mean reversion system
using moving averages and/or breakouts and achieve great results. It
is just a matter of timeframes. Alexander Elder talks about this in
his books. This trend/reversion fusion is the core of my individual
stock selection method.
6. Get on the Social Science Research Network and find what you can
in regards to earnings estimate revisions, momentum, and industry
momentum (aka - does the group explain the stock momentum anomaly???).
7. Be curious, persistent, enthusiastic, and above all never stop
imagining new research paths (highs/lows, advancers/decliners, %
changes, sentiment, analyst revisions, insider buying, COT reports)
it's all out there waiting for you to backtest :)
Good luck!
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis Préfontaine"
<rockprog80@xxx> wrote:
>
> Thank you Brian for your reply and thank you all for your replies.
I was
> not looking for an easy answer, but rather what people thought about
> Breakouts and moving averages as main indicators. Of course I will
build my
> own system, but I believe knowing what people with more experience
are doing
> can help.
>
> Louis
>
> 2008/3/24, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxx>:
> >
> > Louis,
> >
> > As long as you understand I don't deal (intentionally) in the base
> > human emotions (they have no value to me).
> >
> > My philosphical points were addressed 'To Whom It May Concern'.
> >
> > People are totally mistaken if they think there is no relevance to
> > trading in my 'philosphical' post, however few are interested and
I
> > don't have the time to do the subject justice anyway.
> >
> > My 'easy' answer to you was c) none of the above, but, IMO the
> > problem is that you don't have the experience to make the
necessary
> > distinctions for yourself (is it my fault that you are in such a
> > hurry?). Also, it is not a good thing to 'lift' your trades from
> > others. People trade best wnen they develop their own
systems/styles
> > etc so that is why I gave you that answer - it is in your best
> > interests. As well as that, good opinion on this subject abounds
in
> > the forum and the books you have purchased e.g. Howard has given
his
> > opinion on the importance of people choosing their own Objective
> > Function and the fact that his recommended approach sidelines
trading
> > pyschology, so it is not as if the question went unanswered. (I
> > understand that my esoteric answers are not to everyones taste,
> > perhaps not yours, but there are plenty of other people prepared
to
> > give an opinion.
> >
> > However that is just my answer - there are another 7000+ people
who
> > can give you any answer they like.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>, "Louis
> > Préfontaine"
> > <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Ok I was naive; I thought I could simply ask and get some easy
> > answers which
> > > would get me right on track to get new ideas on how to build a
> > hourly
> > > system...
> > >
> > > I'll stick around and try to get some piece of wisdom and maybe
I
> > will be
> > > able to build something with those that will eventually allow
me to
> > build
> > > the system I want to build!
> > >
> > > Louis
> > >
> > >
> > > 2008/3/21, brian_z111 <brian_z111@>:
> >
> > > >
> > > > (Subjective) investigations into the 'human condition' have
been
> > > > going on, in parallel with our search for objective truths, as
> > long
> > > > as humanity has been around.
> > > >
> > > > This body of information has been collected and preserved, by
the
> > > > few, for the benefit of mankind (the many) and consitutes a
> > SCIENCE
> > > > to its guardians, adherents and students.
> > > >
> > > > From that body of WISDOM two principles can be extracted that
are
> > > > relevant to your comments:
> > > >
> > > > holism is universally persistent (all things are made in the
> > IMAGE of
> > > > the creator)
> > > >
> > > > and,
> > > >
> > > > flowing from that, we derive the principle of CORRESPONDENCE
> > > > (operating principles in one sphere, have their corresponding
> > > > principle in another)...
> > > >
> > > > ...but that is going to far OT.
> > > >
> > > > Over to trading (OR how the above relates to trading):
> > > >
> > > > Over the long term the bias of the (stock) market is a
function of
> > > > the earnings performance of the component companies.
> > > >
> > > > This is skewed by the behaviour of market participants, which
> > > > introduces randomness to the markets.
> > > >
> > > > The shorter the timeframe the more dominant is 'randomness'
> > (which of
> > > > course is not true randomness).
> > > >
> > > > (If you are interested in the subject of organising
principles and
> > > > holism Carl Jung's work on Psychological Archetypes is a
wonderful
> > > > example of how the universal paradigms play out in the
affairs of
> > > > wo/mankind).
> > > >
> > > > brian_z *:-)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>, "Ronald
> > > > Davis" <xokie7@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > I maintain the view that algorithms exist in nature, and
that
> > > > people who develop algorighms are only discovering another
one of
> > > > nature's secrets.
> > > > >
> > > > > When my son first showed me Amibroker several years ago, I
> > looked
> > > > at charts with Stochastics, and RSI, and I became convinced
that
> > > > mother nature has algorithms that can find the central core of
> > all of
> > > > that volatility.
> > > > >
> > > > > I have yet to discover mother nature's algorighms, but my
> > attempts
> > > > have led me to some conclusions.
> > > > >
> > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > ------
> > > > >
> > > > > My results WERE BEST when I "AVERAGED THE LAST SEVERAL
HUNDRED
> > DAYS
> > > > OF ACTIVITY"
> > > > >
> > > > > and watched the LAST 9 DAYS>of the performance of this
average
> > of
> > > > hundreds of days.
> > > > >
> > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > ------
> > > > >
> > > > > My results WERE LESS GOOD when I "AVERAGED OF LAST 9 DAYS OF
> > > > ACTIVITY"
> > > > >
> > > > > and watched the LAST 9 DAYS>of the performance of this
average
> > of
> > > > only 9 days.
> > > > >
> > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > -----
> > > > >
> > > > > Hope this helps someone. Ron D
> > > > >
> > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > > ----------------------------
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Louis Préfontaine
> > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com><amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, March 20, 2008 10:25 PM
> > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Philosophical question
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Hi group,
> > > > >
> > > > > I just began reading Howard Bandy's book (even though I did
not
> > > > finish Aronson's book yet...), and a somehow philosophical
> > question
> > > > came to my mind when he speaks about the market's
inefficiency and
> > > > how we must take advantage of it. He talks both about moving
> > > > averages and breakout, and I was wondering which one of the
two
> > > > techniques do you think is the more promising for such a
system?
> > > > >
> > > > > I ask this because as far as subjective technical analysis
is
> > > > concerned, I am more used with breakout techniques. But the
real
> > > > inefficiency in breakout techniques comes from time, that is
if
> > one
> > > > can act quickly enough to make a profit from the sudden
change in
> > > > price. But from my experience it seems to be more difficult
with
> > EOD
> > > > or hourly data. And it is less profitable for someone (like
me)
> > who
> > > > is using options, which tend to anticipate the change quicker
> > than it
> > > > really happens.
> > > > >
> > > > > Moving averages techniques, on the other side, seems a bit
> > > > mystical to me, and maybe a bit too simple or too « easy ». I
> > don't
> > > > know much about them...
> > > > >
> > > > > But anyway, my question is: which one of those two
techniques do
> > > > you prefer, or do you use both for entering a trade, or
shorting a
> > > > trade? What can be a good way to trade for someone (like me)
who
> > > > wants to trade hourly data and can't always get the beginning
of a
> > > > breakout?
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks!
> > > > >
> > > > > Louis
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
------------------------------------
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