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Hello Ron,
You are quite correct.
I stand corrected.
Sloppy maths on my part.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ron Rowland" <rowland@xxx> wrote:
>
> What house in San Jose can't be bought for $102,400,000?
>
> $100k compounding at 100% per year for 10 years = $102 million.
>
> start 100,000
> 1 200,000
> 2 400,000
> 3 800,000
> 4 1,600,000
> 5 3,200,000
> 6 6,400,000
> 7 12,800,000
> 8 25,600,000
> 9 51,200,000
> 10 102,400,000
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > >A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast that
the
> > >account balance is larger than all the real estate in the US in
> just
> > >a few years.
> >
> > Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect
e.g.
> if
> > we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> >
> > A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average, and
> > trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home in San
> > Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> >
> > Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would
> > continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
wrote:
> > >
> > > I draw your attention to the following article, especially item
3:
> > >
> > > "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> > >
> > > http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> > >
> > > Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark Cook.
> > >
> > > It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we fooled
> by
> > > randomness a la Taleb)?
> > >
> > > He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years
before
> > > that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> > >
> > > Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved
those
> > > results was not a particularly outstanding two years for
equities.
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Howard,
> > > >
> > > > >Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40%
per
> > > year,
> > > > >take that with a very large grain of salt.
> > > >
> > > > I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> > > > I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I
> quoted
> > > as
> > > > the theoretical potential.
> > > >
> > > > At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns of
> > approx
> > > > 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple Techno-
> > > > fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> > > >
> > > > The caveat there is that the sample period is short and
> selective.
> > > >
> > > > Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less than
> half
> > > an
> > > > hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing
> mechanisms.
> > > >
> > > > If your statement is true we can all give up any further
> efforts
> > > and
> > > > simple trade his method.
> > > >
> > > > Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market
(due
> > to
> > > > franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on average
> > over
> > > > longer time periods.
> > > > Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25%
> without
> > > any
> > > > ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> > > >
> > > > In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper Business
> 2001
> > > the
> > > > first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart
> Walton,
> > > > fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual
> compounded
> > > > return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during the
> > > nineties.
> > > >
> > > > As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and
> based
> > > on
> > > > verifiable case studies?
> > > >
> > > > I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't need
to
> go
> > > any
> > > > further or to his other 2 books containing similar
testimonies.
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
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