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Hi Yuki,
You are absolutely right, of course, about value of a system that works...
it is priceless ... and ... no I would not sell it if I had one.
What I am looking for, when I say "it works", has a more limited scope. I
want to see that the technical part works. For example, when MESA or FFT
produce a value for the dominant cycle, they must have some kind of
similarity to demonstrate that there is some validity.
As is, the results are completely different, so it's impossible to tell if
either one is worth persuing.
I have done a bit of work on the MESA side recently (and I think Ehlers
considers only his proprietary code as true MESA) and the cyclicity just
does not hold validity. I am under the impression that Ehlers recommended
code from earlier versions was more rubust - and much slower - but not sure
if adequately better.
Clearly creating an edge is up to the trader / investor and is the
combination of the art and science of trading, but we need the tools to do
it with. Spending time researching / testing adequacy of tools to verify
what they are supposed to do is a bit of a drag ... and takes too much time
from our true purpose of trading
Have a great day
Ara
----- Original Message -----
From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Ara Kaloustian" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 11:43 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: FFT
> Hi Ara,
>
> Wednesday, March 28, 2007, 2:32:44 PM, you wrote:
>
>>> There are loads and loads of market letter writters, signal, system
>>> and indicator sellers out there all of whom have the same goal and it
>>> isn't to educate the public.
>
> AK> How true!!!
>
> AK> I would not mind paying for a product that works ...
>
> That's the point. Neither would anyone else -- provided it was sold
> ONLY TO THEM.
>
> If it works well, and it's published, it soon won't work well.
>
> 1) This is the information age.
>
> 2) Anyone who publishes a respectable system will immediately have
> several million people (at least) back test it (probably the next
> day). If it works well for them on a back test, they will use it,
> which means it won't work long going forward.
>
> Why can't people understand this easy logic?
>
> If it's worth paying for, it's worth, as Fred said, tens upon
> millions, or billions, of dollars. Anyone charging less is a
> flat-out dullard. The same for anyone voluntarily publishing a good
> system.
>
> A good system is so valuable that it doesn't have a price, mostly
> because selling it publicly would immediately destroy its value. The
> price would be good for the seller, but the buyer would either need
> to secure exclusivity, or not be too bright.
>
> For the most part, Fred's extreme percentage example won't work --
> because of liquidity problems. But edges are so hard to come by that
> it doesn't take too many people trying to exploit the same edge to
> absolutely destroy that edge.
>
> Finally, I agree with you. Cycle research is trying to pin human
> emotion to some clock-like cycle. Good luck with that.
>
> There are some periodical cycles that can be exploited -- related to
> the calendar, for example -- but searching for a one-size-fits-all
> cyclical formula to explain human nature reveals nothing more than a
> rather woeful lack of understanding when it comes to human nature in
> the first place.
>
> Yeah, it's like Fib numbers: It works sometimes, but it doesn't work
> a lot, too. Same with the periodical cycles.
>
> There is NO grail! Grail-searchers, be gone!!! ^^_^^
>
> There are temporary edges. Exploit them. Expect, with the power of
> modern desktop computers to say the least, that they won't last too
> long. *TENS OR HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS* of people are searching through
> the data, looking for an edge. Every day. Every night on the other
> side of the world. They never stop. They are relentless.
>
> And they are dying to sell that newly discovered edge to you for US$
> 1,500??? Or even ten times that much???
>
> Yeah. Sure.
>
> Yuki
>
> P.S. Dimitris rules! ^_^
>
>
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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>
> For other support material please check also:
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>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
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