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No one publishes the workings of the "Holy Grail" for all to see for
a variety of reasons not the least of which is that it owouldn't take
long before it stopped working ... Beyond that it's not really for
sale in any form disclosed or otherwise either for the same
reasons ...
If you had a system that made 100% CAR on less then 5% DD's what
would it be worth ? ... Billions ? Millions ? Certainly not
thousands ... Even if you only had $10k to start with in ten years
you'd have $10mm ...
There are loads and loads of market letter writters, signal, system
and indicator sellers out there all of whom have the same goal and it
isn't to educate the public.
Think about it ...
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ara Kaloustian" <ara1@xxx> wrote:
>
> interesting thought, but I don't think doing FFT on weeky data will
overcome the basic issues of FFT.
>
> Unfortunately, my experience with MESA (at least the version
provided in Ehlers books) has not been useful either.
>
> In particular, I dont get good separation of trend and cycle modes.
Seems cycle mode is valid after 2 complete "good looking" cycles are
gone by. This is of course not very useful as the cycles do not
continue forever.
>
> I beleive the propriatary version (which is different) is available
from Trade Station and eSignal for 30 day free evaluation.
>
> There is only scetchy info in his books about the proprietary
version.
>
> If anyone uses these platforms to trade with, you might try and see
if they are useful.
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Rakesh Sahgal
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 8:03 PM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: FFT
>
>
> Exactly. The usefulness of the information extracted is a
function of it's use-ability as an input for trading decisions. With
dominant cycle lengths changing every few bars how can we implement
trading positions based on this input? Anybody used this successfully
to call swing pivots and willing to share their technique? Just loud
thinking and maybe it is without a logical base - Is it possible to
extract the cycle length based on the DFT algorithm Tomasz posted on
a weekly timeframe and then apply it to the daily timeframe by
multiplying with 5(trading days in a week). Will that to some extent
take care of the concern about the constancy of cycle length?
>
>
> R
>
>
> On 3/28/07, wavemechanic <fimdot@xxx> wrote:
> As I think you suggest, neither is the Holy Grail. FFT can
certainly not compete in the resolution department with MESA without
invalidating the requirement of constancy of amplitude and phase
because of the need for large data lengths in order to achieve
resolution. So, using short data lengths MESA shoots for high
resolution of short-term cycles and knowingly accepts some
statistical penalty. Even so its still not Shangri La because short-
term cycles will most probably not be present over longer periods
that are of interest to traders/investors. Ehlers cleverly takes
care of this by dividing the world into trending and non-trending and
arguing that short-term cycles will be a major player in non-trending
markets but not in trending markets (very useful insight). He then
throws in the towel and emphasizes trading in trending markets (short-
term trading is too tough?).
>
> Bill
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Fred" <ftonetti@xxx >
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 3:42 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: FFT
>
>
> > Not to get into semantics ... But yes and this is because one
> > usually uses MESA with shorter data samples where the shorter
term
> > cycles are not overwhelmed by the longer cycles which
typically have
> > larger amplitudes. While interesting for some things FFT's
don't
> > really have particularly good granularity as cycle length
approaches
> > half the size of the data being examined. MESA doesn't
suffer from
> > this.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx , "wavemechanic" <fimdot@>
wrote:
> >>
> >> Yes, that's right - handle is the wrong word and should be
find,
> > reveal, uncover, etc. This ability is of particular interest
to
> > short-term traders.
> >>
> >> Bill
> >>
> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> From: "Fred" <ftonetti@>
> >> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> >> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 2:04 PM
> >> Subject: [amibroker] Re: FFT
> >>
> >>
> >> > MESA doesn't really have the ability to handle shorter
cycles
> > per
> >> > se ...
> >> >
> >> > What it does have is the ability to pull cyclical
information
> > out of
> >> > shorter samples of data.
> >> >
> >> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx , "wavemechanic"
<fimdot@> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> No, I'm not saying that MESA will give better results
than
> >> > a "better" FFT (is MESA a "better" FFT?). That judgment
cannot
> > be
> >> > made until you leave the hypothetical and have a "better"
FFT to
> >> > talk about. Until then statistics help identify valid
cycles
> > and
> >> > MESA offers some advantages, including noise filtering and
> > ability
> >> > to handle shorter cycles. Good luck in your search.
> >> >>
> >> >> Bill
> >> >>
> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> From: Ton Sieverding
> >> >> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2007 3:24 AM
> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> So what you are saying is - 'Beyond that one can go to
MESA' -
> >
> >> > that even after I should have found whatever modified
version of
> >> > FFT, MESA will give me better results. In other words, why
> > playing
> >> > with FFT if MESA is the right way to go. Is that your
opinion or
> > am
> >> > I missing something ?
> >> >>
> >> >> Ton
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> From: wavemechanic
> >> >> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2007 2:42 PM
> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> The restrictions associated with FFT that Ehlers
mentions
> > can
> >> > be found in any textbook. As for better results with FFT,
the
> > next
> >> > step is to evaluate the cycles statistically (e.g.,
Bartels, F-
> >> > ratio, chi-square, etc.). Beyond that one can go to MESA
and
> > such.
> >> >>
> >> >> Bill
> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> From: Ton Sieverding
> >> >> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2007 2:58 AM
> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> Frankly for me these are John Ehlers typical
arguments to
> >> > use his MESA model in stead of FFT and has nothing to do
with a
> >> > discussion. The question for me still remains if there
really is
> > no
> >> > way to get better results with FFT than the ones we have
got ?
> > If
> >> > Fourier analysis is correct and it's possible to simulate
> > whatever
> >> > continues timeseries with a bunch of sinewaves and if MESA
can
> > give
> >> > me the correct harmonics, it should also be possible to
obtain
> > the
> >> > same results with a modified version of FFT. Question is
how ?
> >> >>
> >> >> Ton Sieverding.
> >> >>
> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> From: wavemechanic
> >> >> To: AmiBroker, User
> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 26, 2007 1:27 AM
> >> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] FFT
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> There is a discussion of FFT use and problems on
Ehlers
> >> > MESA website:
> >> >>
> >> >> http://www.mesasoftware.com/fftcomparison.htm
> >> >>
> >> >> Bill
> >> >>
> >> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> >> From: Ara Kaloustian
> >> >> To: AB-Main
> >> >> Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2007 3:16 PM
> >> >> Subject: [amibroker] FFT
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> I was playing with AB's FFT code that TJ
provided...
> >> >>
> >> >> The cycles seem to shift relative to the data,
based
> > on
> >> > how many data points are analyzed. This is of course
expected.
> >> >>
> >> >> Question:
> >> >>
> >> >> Has anyone found a way to determine optimum
number of
> >> > data points to analyze, and then determine the relevance
of the
> >> > dominant cycle, or find any relevant cycles?
> >> >>
> >> >> Most of the time the dominant cycle seems to be
the
> >> > largest one available.
> >> >>
> >> >> Has anyone been able to use these cycles
succesfully?
> >> >>
> >> >> Ara
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> ----------------------------------------------------------
------
> > ---
> >> > ---
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> No virus found in this incoming message.
> >> >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> >> >> Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database:
268.18.17/732 -
> >> > Release Date: 3/24/2007 4:36 PM
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> ----------------------------------------------------------
------
> > ---
> >> > -------
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> No virus found in this incoming message.
> >> >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> >> >> Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/733 -
> > Release
> >> > Date: 3/25/2007 11:07 AM
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> ----------------------------------------------------------
------
> > ---
> >> > -----------
> >> >>
> >> >>
> >> >> No virus found in this incoming message.
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> >> >> Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/734 -
Release
> > Date:
> >> > 3/26/2007 2:31 PM
> >> >>
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Please note that this group is for discussion between
users only.
> >> >
> >> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
directly to
> >> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >> >
> >> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
> >> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >> >
> >> > For other support material please check also:
> >> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >> >
> >> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > --
> >> > No virus found in this incoming message.
> >> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> >> > Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/734 - Release
Date:
> > 3/26/2007 2:31 PM
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> >
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly
to
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > No virus found in this incoming message.
> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> > Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.18/734 - Release
Date: 3/26/2007 2:31 PM
> >
> >
>
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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For other support material please check also:
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