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A sincere thank-you for the response, I know it's a pretty arcane
subject. This is the nearly unintelligible math part I was talking
about when I said in a subsequent post that I didn't realize how much I
was asking for, LOL! I don't understand this enough to apply it to
what I want to do. I assume it's just a formula where I plug in the
values, but the "where", "how" and "why" plumb evade me.:) I'll work
on it, though.
Luck
Sebastian
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "treliff" <treliff@xxx> wrote:
>
> Sebastian,
>
> The HAS function below (based on Hasting's polynomial approximation)
> gives 7-decimal accuracy of NORMSDIST.
>
> function t(x)
> { return 1 / (1+0.2316419*x); }
>
> function HAS(x)
> { return 1 - (exp(-0.5*x^2)/sqrt(2*3.141592654))*(0.31938153*t(x)-
> 0.356563782*t(x)^2+1.781477937*t(x)^3-1.821255978*t(x)
> ^4+1.330274429*t(x)^5); }
>
> -treliff
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "sebastiandanconia"
> sebastiandanconia@ wrote:
> >
> >
> > I came across what I consider to be a valuable stock market/economic
> > indicator, the Wright Model "B" yield-curve indicator. Using this
> > formula in Excel:
> >
> >
> > Probability = NORMSDIST(-2.17 - 0.76 x S + 0.35 x R)
> >
> > where "S" is the spread (10-Year Treasury yield minus 3-month T-Bill
> > yield) and "R" is the Fed Funds rate, it gives the probability of
> > economic recession within the next 4 quarters. (Only about 44%
> right
> > now, so there's some good news. I envision using this as a market-
> exit
> > indicator, warning when conditions are about to turn really ugly for
> > both the stock market and the economy. )
> >
> > This formula:
> >
> >
> > Z(x) = (1/(sqrt(2*pi()))*exp(-x^2/2))
> >
> > appears to be the actual math represented by the NORMSDIST
> function. I
> > believe AB supports all the operations in this formula.
> >
> > My problem is that I'm not math-savvy enough to make the leap from
> here
> > to turn this into a complete AB formula. I don't know what
> operation
> > the NORMSDIST formula performs on the Wright Model part, I don't
> know
> > what the "x" variable is supposed to be...there's no end to what I
> don't
> > know.:)
> >
> > Any help from my superiors in the math field (undoubtedly a VERY
> large
> > club) would be greatly appreciated.
> >
> >
> >
> > Luck to all,
> >
> > Sebastian
> >
>
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