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[amibroker] Re: Margin of Error



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Hello QT,

I was hoping you would join the party.

I have been speculating about this concept but so far I haven't cone 
up with any references.
Any chance that you know a website or author who discusses this?

BrianB2.

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "quanttrader714" 
<quanttrader714@xxx> wrote:
>
> One way to approach this is with a form of the block bootstrap, by
> resampling  blocks of consecutive observations of random length 
with
> replacement.
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "sebastiandanconia"
> <sebastiandanconia@> wrote:
> >
> > I only offer this as a consideration when using such testing, 
not as a
> > criticism of Monte Carlo Simulations.  A subtle but significant 
point
> > (IMO) when using MCS:  They may or may not be applicable to
> > trading/investing, because the markets don't always behave 
randomly.
> > 
> > An example of when a MCS would clearly be appropriate:  Let's 
say you're
> > a defense contractor manufacturing a part for the International 
Space
> > Station.  The part is critical, but because of limitations in
> > engineering technology it has a high failure rate, and there's 
no way of
> > forecasting in advance if a part will fail.  However, although 
the
> > failure rate is high, it's also very consistent.  Until 
technology
> > advances sufficiently the only practical solution is to keep 
plenty of
> > spares on-hand.
> > 
> > A MCS could tell you what the optimal number of spares to keep 
on-hand
> > would be.  The part failures are random, but MC could tell you 
the
> > likelihood of two, three, five, ten, etc., consecutive 
failures.  You
> > might determine that there would only be a 1/100,000 chance that 
6
> > spares in a row would fail, so you might advise NASA to stock at 
least 6
> > spares at all times.
> > 
> > Some trading systems, though, will be successful because they 
take
> > advantage of repeating sequences of events, not random events.  
Business
> > cycles go through a specific sequence, company growth follows a 
certain
> > pattern from infancy to maturity, price trends/reversals follow a
> > sequence, etc.  If trades based on reliable, repeating patterns 
are
> > taken out of order by a MCS such that a massive drawdown or a
> > bankrupting series of losers occurs, that can distort the value 
of the
> > trading method by putting the trades in an order that wouldn't 
occur.
> > 
> > Soapbox alert!:)  Another reason that "Why does it work?" is 
such an
> > important question with trading systems, since a good answer to 
that
> > question can lead to a good answer for another important 
question, "When
> > WON'T it work?"
> > 
> > 
> > S.
>




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