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[amibroker] Re: OT: Statistics



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Hello Sebastian,

I have been looking for the *missing link* in evaluating systems, 
which also flows over into money management.
That is the area in trading that sorts the sheep from the goats.

Love the Curtis Faith quotes.
I couldn't agree more especially on point two.
I can't believe how under-stated statistics are in trading circles.

In my posts I often try to shake people off the idea of certainty 
(the classical world view) and onto an acceptance of probability 
(the quantum world view) as our stock in trade.
That is not an easy transition to make.
They go down like flies at that point.

I also try to encourage tolerance of each other and the contrary 
view in the forum as it makes us better traders.
We are more able to suffer the vicissitudes of trading if we are 
multi-dimensional people. 

I don't find any book that describes the traders *big bang* or 
*theory of everything*.
I wish!
I have to take something from each book and add it to the mix.
Even though I have experienced it many times before, in other 
fields, it still comes as a shock when I find, even in trading, I 
have to be my own expert.

I agree with your point that we are talking to a wider audience that 
includes new players and that we should offer some guidance here and 
there.
I won't ever match Maestro Dimitris, but at least I try.

I will add VanTharp to my reading list.
I had to read him anyway as he is so often quoted.

I have Stridsman on order from Amazon for a few weeks now.
It should be here soon.

Thanks for your help.

BrianB2 #:-)



--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "sebastiandanconia" 
<sebastiandanconia@xxx> wrote:
>
> Even though the title sounds like a scam,  Van Tharp's "Trade Your 
Way
> to Financial Freedom" addresses a lot of the statistical issues
> specifically as they apply to traders in an easy-to-understand 
way. 
> "Trading Systems that Work" by Stridsman addresses the same 
issues, but
> it's a more expensive book and I thought it was a little tougher to
> follow.
> 
> This isn't exactly on-topic, but I recently came across a valuable 
post
> from Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtles.
> 
> "There are 5 important achievements that every successful system 
trader
> must make.
> 
> 1) You must know your own weaknesses. Each of us brings strengths 
and
> weaknesses to our own trading. Some find it exceedingly difficult 
not to
> tinker or play around with the markets when trading and in the 
process
> we don't follow our systems; some find it difficult to pull the 
trigger;
> some find it difficult to endure drawdowns of any size. Unless you 
know
> how you react to the markets and the pressures and elations of 
trading,
> you cannot compensate for your weaknesses.
> 
> 2) You must understand statistics well enough to understand the
> limitations of trading using only history as our guide. I am 
constantly
> surprised by how many people get this wrong. Even the so-called
> "experts" in trading.
> 
> 3) You must learn about trading systems, many of them, many 
different
> kinds of systems. In this process, you will learn that there are 
many
> answers, many paths to profits, but none of them are as neat and
> palatable as we might wish.
> 
> 4) You must learn about brokers, markets, execution, risk, 
slippage, and
> other operational issues that affect trading profits. The best way 
to
> learn these issues is to start trading somewhere using a small 
account.
> It needs to be big enough that the losses matter but not so big 
that you
> will bankrupt yourself if you lose the entire account.
> 
> 5) You must learn about yourself and how you react to all the 
items 1 to
> 4 above. This is perhaps the most important knowledge. How to fit 
your
> own personality, weaknesses and strengths, into the trading 
ecosystem.
> You might find you are bored with a long-term system, or that you 
can't
> stand looking at screens, or that you need a robobroker to execute 
since
> you won't follow your systems closely enough. You will only learn 
this
> by being honest with yourself and by reflecting on what works and
> doesn't."
> 
> 
> Luck,
> 
> Sebastian
> 
> 
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian.z123" <brian.z123@> wrote:
> >
> > Statistics for traders.
> > Can anyone recommend a book on statistics written specifically 
for
> > traders or that applies statistical methods to trading examples?
> > I am looking for an author who has done a good job on the 
subject.
> > Even if it is only a section of a book that would do provided it
> > goes beyond a superficial treatment of the subject.
> >
> > For anyone interested here is a link to a very good introduction 
or
> > refresher for statistics.
> > The HTML *book* takes your from 0-50kph in approx 100 pages.
> > Please note; the site does contain a lot of advertisements but 
it is
> > also a  mini portal for stats and it does have links to free
> > statistical stuff and free tools.
> >
> > Outside of writing indicators I find statistics to be one of the 
few
> > maths disciplines that has a high degree of relevance to trading.
> >
> > http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html
> >
> > BrianB2.
> >
>




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