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The reason that the line doesn't appear to fit is that by default it
appears to be fitting all of the data in the array to the polynomial.
I have tried different order equations and found that 2nd order
(quadratic) works the best for me. The number of bars for the fit I
set to between 20 and 50 - which it appears you can do with this code.
A few things you can do is
1. Take the first derivative of the resulting equation to produce the
slope at the last data point, and use the normalized slope (%-per-day)
as a ranking indicator.
2. Check the slope at the beginning, middle, and end of the array to
search for cup-and-handle patterns. Actually you use a long one
(50-100 bars shifted back 20 bars) for the cup and a short one (10-20
bars not shifted) for the handle. then create a search based on the
shape(slopes) of the resulting parabolas.
3. Create an indicator that consists of the last value of the slope of
a n-bar set of going back to the start of the data. This produces a
nice smooth oscillator indicating tops & bottoms in price.
Ed Hoopes
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "d_hanegan" <dhanegan@xxx> wrote:
>
> Fred:
>
> Thanks for your posts and all of the information concerning the
> Polynomial Trendlines. When I run the code, I pretty much just get
> a straight green line; it does not fit my data. I thought I had
> read all of the posts. Am I missing something?
>
> Thanks.
>
> Dan
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <ftonetti@> wrote:
> >
> > Be AWARE ... that was a hand picked image ... if you play with
> > PolyFit you will see that sometimes data fits the extrapolations,
> > sometimes it doesn't.
> >
> > The higher the order, the flakier the extrapolations are likely to
> > become ...
> >
> > So ... Remember what it is ... a generator of an equation in the
> form
> >
> > Y = a + bx + cx^2 + ... + nx^(n-1)
> >
> > Where the coeeficients were pick to fit the data.
> >
> > IMHO what PolyFit is, epecially with very high orders is a very
> good
> > detrender of IN SAMPLE data, nothing more, nothing less ... That
> in
> > and of itself is a useful tool ... Gaussian Elimination can also
> be
> > the basis for some other things that are pretty decent when the
> order
> > is kept fairly low i.e. 3 or 4 ...
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ara Kaloustian" <ara1@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Polynomial TrendlinesFred,
> > >
> > > There have been a lot of posting on this subject. Your one
> image
> > however is a very powerful message of its potential.
> > >
> > > Now I have to go back and review all the post ... hoping to find
> a
> > good reference to study.
> > >
> > > Anyone using it succesfully now?
> > >
> > > Ara
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Fred Tonetti
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Tuesday, October 03, 2006 3:32 PM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] RE: Polynomial Trendlines
> > >
> > >
> > > Oops .
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Meant to include this visual .
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Green is calculated . White is extrapolated .
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----------------------------------------------------------------
> ---
> > ----------
> > > I am using the free version of SPAMfighter for private users.
> > > It has removed 8588 spam emails to date.
> > > Paying users do not have this message in their emails.
> > > Try SPAMfighter for free now!
> > >
> >
>
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