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[amibroker] Re: BackTest Question



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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Geoff Mulhall" <geoffmulhall@xxxx> 
wrote:
. 
> 
> As soon as a position has its trailing stop above the buy price there 
> is no more risk with that position 


Geoff,

You might want to rethink this as risk can never be eliminated, it can
only be managed.  Think about gap down openings and the effect on an 
individual position.  

There can also be news driven gap downs during the day and you'd never 
see this on EOD data and it would  never be reflected in any backtests 
using EOD.

Also, think about having your system reach Max DD in actual trading.
You are not past the worst of it by any means.  There is no reason why
a Max DD occurance can not be followed, in short order, by another
period eqivilant to a Max DD.

Keep in mind that a MaxDD event happens only once in any backtest.
However, there will be multiple interim DD's and a series of these can
shred an account just as much, or more, than a MaxDD.

Of course, this all does not touch on the probability of somethind 
happening.  My point is only to point out that the rusk is alway there
and it is always larger than one would care to think about.

Regards,

Tony









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