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Re: [amibroker] Re: Delay in real life vs backtester



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Hi Graham,

Friday, November 25, 2005, 11:14:46 AM, you wrote:

G> some good thoughts there Yuki
G> Have not thought to approach things like that

Thank you for the kind words, Graham, and thank you for being such an
integral part of this board.  Your coding understanding is invaluable
to those of us who lack the same.

It's a war out there.  It took me nearly a decade to understand just
what a war it is.  I have more experience than I care to admit, as it
reveals my age.  ^_^  (It spans several decades.)

You just cannot substitute for experience in this business, I think.
I am a slow learner, basically.  So I think people who are more
clever than I am can learn what I have learned in half the time. That
means they should watch a relatively small group of stocks for about
5 years. Then they will know when to act, and when to sit on their
hands.

Always remember that there are large players out there who want to
disguise their intentions, but who can, basically, only employ time
as their agent of deceit.  And deceit is really what they strive for.

At the same time, remember that this is a club of big players -- a
rather large club, too.  They keep their high-salary jobs by not
standing out in a negative way vis a vis their peers.  When the
obvious gets obvious, it REALLY gets obvious in a hurry.  Otherwise,
it is noise.

And to make it even more difficult, each equity seems to have it's
own bounds as to what is an "event" and what isn't.  You need to
sleep with your equities to understand this, I think.  But once you
do, you can trade with more confidence.  Without confidence, pulling
the trigger at the right time is very hard.

Also remember that the big players have an advantage we small fry do
not have.  They trade OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.  Sure, their jobs are on
the line, but as I said above, they only need perform near the
average return of their peers to keep their jobs.  It's not THEIR
money, and so it is oh-so much easier to control one's emotion.

We trade OUR money.  It is a huge difference.  I could make a lot
more money, I'm sure, trading other people's money.  Fortunately, I
have reached the point where my risk of ruin is basically zero.  So I
do okay.

Yuki








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