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My reply inline:
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Natasha !! <dynomitedoll_ddd@xxxx>
wrote:
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> Today being Saturday and a holiday and being in that frame of mind
for wild mental rambling i couldnt help but not comment on the above
mail.The basic idea behind trading stocks currencies or commodities
or investing as many say respectfully is to increase your wealth,the
stocks being the vehicles of creation of wealth and the two mails are
really what got me thinking.They are really what is the essence of
the investment world today. Is the holygrail avalable or possible
says the first mail? Does Warren buffet and soros have it or did they
just happen to be at the right place at the right time as it is said.
The man from Omaha is still doing fabulously well and hasnt lost his
touch as known by the recent P&g takeover of gillette.So he does have
a very good workable system but is it the holy grail. Lots of books
and info is available on how Buffett operates but noone has yet been
able to replicate his level of success.My belief is that the basics
are known to all but he has not
> allowed anyone to know a key element of his method.One or two
tumblers to open the door of the vault are missing.First let us
decide what a holy grail system is.I haven't been able to find a list
of characteristics of any such system anywhere so i made my own.
> a)The system is a profit making system.b) The system has no
negative trades.c)The system encompasses all factors like profit
booking,optimum assett allocation,optimum time frames etc etc in
short usage of the system results in perpetual exponential wealth
creation. So is such a system possible?And should such a system be an
automised one? So far i have found that any trading indicator however
well designed has always shown a lag.It always gives a signal long
after the fact.I dont mean to say catch the tops and bottoms but most
wait for confirmations which if proper are lagging.Any indicator or
groups of indicators working singly or in tandem for trending and
ranging conditions of markets after optimising wont give more than an
annual return of 40%on a sustained long term basis.So to increase
this we optimise them by position size and using the various ratios
devised to attenuate our trading and minimise risk but this still
does not give exponential returns even though mathematics is
> an exact science it doesnt solve the problem of exponential
returns.
A quote from Maharaja at the elitrader forum "But you know in todays
world of advanced mathematics there are numbers outside the realm of
integers. There are these things called decimals and fractions that
can be inbetween 0 and 1. And so function x^1.000001 isn't growing
that fast.... Just becuase something is exponentional doesn't mean
its exponent is > 2."
>The ongoing informative and longdrawn thread of technical and
technofundamental trading also does not shed any light on creating
exponential returns. All these are the physical objects of study,The
fundamentals ,the technicals,and the technofundamentals.The holygrail
system characteristics as defined above i fear does not lie in the
physical plane.Only 3 roads lead to fast riches:a)Inheritance(rich
aunt expires and leaves her favourite niece a windfall etc etc),b)
swindle(insider trading,false accounting,etc, etc) and c)
speculation.I dont know of a fourth method.The first two occur maybe
once or twice in a lifetime .They may result in exponential wealth
creation for the user but are no holy grail systems as they are not
perpetual.That leaves speculation.The grail if available should be
available there.There is an irresistible fascination in the pursuit
of gold which many chase and so few capture.The markets rise and
> fall perpetually.Sometimes they rise or fall unusually heavily
like the current recent rise in metal markets and certain world
indices which are trading at all time highs because of the change in
swiss banking laws which made it compulsory for certain mandatory
disclosures for account holders but such hot money is exactly what it
is and may soon take flight elsewhere.What if we knew in advance of
such events or probability of such similiar curcumstances that would
influence markets.Wouldnt that be some sort of holy grail.These
cannot be done using technical charts or fundamental analysis.So what
is the answer: There is only one science that can throw light on such
situations and offer an explanation.It is the science of the
foreknowledge.There are two that come to my mind.a)You may have a
neural network that can predict future market conditions and the
second is astrology.The first you have to design and it comes
somewhat in tne realm of the physical plane but the second you have to
> interprete.It has already been designed over billions of years of
evolution from the Chaldeans to Plato to today.Imagine that you have
a buy signal on your amibroker chart but the falling indices still
fall and then you see on the astrological chart that Jupiter the
planet of prosperity is in a strong benific aspect like conjunction
with the Sun in the fifth house the house of speculation of which the
sun(Leo) is lord near the cusp .You close your eyes and buy 10
contracts on the nasdaq with no hammer on daily or weekly charts and
the markets go up.If you replicate something like this over and over
again i would say you have found your holygrail.
The following is addressed to nobody in particular. It was a
reformulation (from my memory) of the famous speech by Francisco
d'Anconia about "money" in "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand, which I
adapted for the holygrail:
Do not "envy" a worthless heir to a fortune/holy grail. His
inheritance is not yours; you could not have done better with it than
he. Do not ask whether he destroyed it; for the holy grail cannot be
destroyed; it can only destroy him. The only man fit to inherit
anything is the man who does not need it; for he can make his own
wherever he is. Loading the world with 1000 parasites instead of 1
will not bring back the dead virtue which is the fortune/holygrail.
Do not embark on an endless quest for the elusive holy grail; for the
holy grail lies within you.
>These are my thoughts most of them are original.Some ideas on
various subjects i have got from various books i have read over time
and i too am in search of Solomons Diamond Mines. The current quote
in fashion and practice in our web enabled world today is "If you
present a single persons work as your own it is known as Plagiarism
but if
> you present several peoples works as your own it is know as
research ."These are the times we live in and have to adjust with. --
N!!
There is no monopoly on ideas that are not copyrighted; non-
copyrighted material found in public domain are not permanent
property. Also, copy-righted material in public domain which the
author intended to be freely distributed as shareware/freeware is not
permanent property. In both cases, in sharing those ideas, no rights
are violated.
"Material products (patented or not) can't be shared, they belong to
some ultimate consumer; it is only the value of an idea that can be
shared with unlimited numbers of men, making all sharers richer at no
one's sacrifice or loss, raising the productive capacity of whatever
they perform. It is the value of his own time that the strong of the
intellect transfers to the others, letting them work better thereby
validating his discoveries while devoting his time to further
discoveries; this is mutual trade to mutual advantage; the interests
of the mind are one, no matter what the degree of intelligence, among
men who desire to work together and don't seek or expect the
unearned." - Ayn Rand
It is possible for two people to create the same 10-word sentence;
the same 50-word paragraph. for eg., Musical pieces
can sound very similar. However, if one is publishing a research
paper or a thesis where you present several peoples works in-addition
to your own, then one is required by law to give reference to every
discovery that is not original.
>
>
>
> Warm regards,
> Natasha !
rgds, Pal
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