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Sorry, This is NK 225 Futures CME (Pit) Continous contract (December)
Open: 1109.00
High: 1110.00
Low: 1092.00
Close: 1095.50 on November 11, 2004.
Long-term bottom of 801.5 made on April 28, 2003.
Mid-term top of 1231 made on April 13, 2004.
Longer-terms tops:
1501.5 made on May 1, 2001
1809.5 made on July 3, 2000
2110 made on April 12 2000
If currently flat, go long because the uptrend is still intact and the
long-term bottom pattern is still valid.
If currently short move your stop to 1113.70 and reverse your short
position (go long) when the stop is hit.
If currently long, add on (pyramid) to your long position.
rgds, Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> I assume that you are talking about SPX rather than N225. However,
price without time is not too meaningful, imo. So, +/- something when
should we look for 801, 1501, and 1231?
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Pal Anand
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, November 19, 2004 5:29 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] How about...[was Re: OT: toss 'em a life
preserver, DT]
>
>
>
> NK225 FUTURES:
>
> Long term bottom at 801.5
>
> Long term top at 1501.5
>
> Mid term top at 1231
>
> Right now, Highly Volatile and making a pullback on an uptrend.
>
> If already long, add on to the position because a continuation
> of previous uptrend signal is detected.
>
> If already short, move stop to 1113.70 or if aggressive, exit your
> short position and reverse it (go long).
>
> Took me 5 minutes to do this analysis.
>
> rgds, Pal
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> >
> > How about the ^N225 open on Monday ?
> > [technical or non technical opinions will be appreciated...]
> > Dimitris
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > You may see the next bar S_R already placed in the
> > > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/RSIc/
> > > folder.
> > > It is quite expressive for the short-term predictions.
> > > Dimitris
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Hi DIMITRIS,
> > > >
> > > > Could be a heck of a dog fight. We were slapped hard right
spot
> > on
> > > > the 200-day. This is the third flirtation with this level
in the
> > > > past few months, and the other times it looked like we
mounted it
> > > > successfully before giving it right back up.
> > > >
> > > > Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with about a 200
> > > > point spread, give or take. It could be a war. OTOH, we
(planet
> > > > earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect we have
> > more
> > > > upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's 144 and
> > the
> > > > 200 this week, the first cross since last August. But I don't
> > think
> > > > this is the end of the trend. Nasty to see institutions
fail at
> > the
> > > > 200 however. But did they?
> > > >
> > > > Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially
banks. We
> > > are
> > > > talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost
entirely
> > on
> > > > the long side, this going on for several days now. This is not
> > Dick
> > > > and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home. (Ichiro Suzuki,
> > maybe.)
> > > > ^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a
> > > significant
> > > > futures failure today. It was only *very* late that,
convinced the
> > > > futures would not bounce today, institutions simply stopped
> > > > supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back quickly
on any
> > > > weakness? And these issues represent the core of the market.
They
> > > > (the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest of the
> > > > market. One cannot bid up their shares without thinking the
rest
> > of
> > > > the market is undervalued as well. (I'm talking about painting
> > the
> > > > tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
> > > > 5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been
going on
> > > all
> > > > this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
> > > >
> > > > Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now, it
may
> > be
> > > a
> > > > while before we'll see it again. I could see 2 to 4 weeks of
> > fairly
> > > > good strength here before a serious pullback.
> > > >
> > > > As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session. I
saw it
> > as
> > > a
> > > > canary in the coal mine. So over bought near term, and even
> > though
> > > > we are significantly less over bought, everyone here
realizes the
> > US
> > > > could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one is too
> > eager
> > > > to run a long play into that kind of potential. They gave a
lot
> > > back
> > > > in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of ^225
> > > futures,
> > > > about all of it.
> > > >
> > > > Remember, they want to shake every long out that they
possibly can
> > > > before climbing over the 200 for a run. That may be what we are
> > > > seeing here. Any notion that the big players want us attending
> > the
> > > > party is pure fantasy. ^_^ They want us showing up
significantly
> > > > late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
> > > >
> > > > Or so it appears from over here.
> > > >
> > > > Yuki
> > > >
> > > > Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
> > > >
> > > > DT> Where the support is.
> > > > DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are ambiguous
since
> > > they
> > > > DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7 peaks]
> > is
> > > 2.76,
> > > > DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs] is
-9.031.
> > > > DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after todays
close.
> > > > DT> This support will be valid until a new trough appears.
> > > > DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
> > > > DT> Will it be lower ?
> > > > DT> Who knows...
> > > > DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably] the
Nov16
> > > high
> > > > DT> [11,268]
> > > > DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather
> > confusing,
> > > you
> > > > DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the positive US
> > > session...
> > > > DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
> > > >
> > > > DT> //The RSIc trendlines
> > > > DT> procedure RSIc(n)
> > > > DT> {
> > > > DT> C=RSIa(C,n);
> > > > DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
> > > > DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
> > > > DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
> > > > DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
> > > > L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
> > > > DT> }
> > > > DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
> > > > DT> RSIc(n);
> > > > DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
> > > > DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
> > > > DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
> > > > DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
> > > > DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
> > > > DT> dtS =endt-startt;
> > > > DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
> > > > DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
> > > > DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > > > DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
> > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-
> > 1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
> > > > DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > > > DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
> > > > DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > > > DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
> > > > DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > > > DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > > > DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > > > DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
> > > > DT> bR = endR;
> > > > DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;
> > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-
> > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
> > > >
> > > > DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel
ASCENDING
> > > channel
> > > > DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is increasing by
> > > 0.9/bar,
> > > > DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will have
> > > tomorrows
> > > > DT> support at 10,946.
> > > > DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is quite
> > > sensitive.
> > > > DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the expected
Close
> > > range ]
> > > >
> > > > DT> Dimitris
> > > > DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > >> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME ^225
> > futures.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came
snorting
> > > out
> > > > DT> of
> > > > >> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in no
short
> > > order.
> > > > >> It was your "last chance" to buy. ^^_^^ But, about
9:45, the
> > > > DT> market
> > > > >> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140. No huge
surprise
> > to
> > > > >> those who were paying full attention.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that this
> > first
> > > > >> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone. Okay, so the first
> > plunge
> > > > >> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM session, we
> > > waited at
> > > > >> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no
buyers.
> > We
> > > > >> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> So, we have technical damage here, for sure. DT, I am still
> > > sure
> > > > DT> you
> > > > >> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance. Clearly, the
level is
> > > > >> higher. But, we apparently need to test something lower
> > before
> > > we
> > > > >> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-way
> > > sentiment
> > > > >> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the support
> > line?
> > > > >> Could it be 10,900?
> > > > >>
> > > > >> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it
won't be
> > > where
> > > > >> the morning traders will be happy.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.) ^_^
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Yuki
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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