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Re: [amibroker] How about...[was Re: OT: toss 'em a life preserver, DT]



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I assume that you are talking about SPX rather than N225.  However, price without time is not too meaningful, imo.  So, +/- something when should we look for 801, 1501, and 1231?
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Pal Anand 
  To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Friday, November 19, 2004 5:29 PM
  Subject: [amibroker] How about...[was Re: OT: toss 'em a life preserver, DT]



  NK225 FUTURES:

  Long term bottom at 801.5

  Long term top at 1501.5

  Mid term top at 1231

  Right now, Highly Volatile and making a pullback on an uptrend.

  If already long, add on to the position because a continuation
  of previous uptrend signal is detected.

  If already short, move stop to 1113.70 or if aggressive, exit your
  short position and reverse it (go long).

  Took me 5 minutes to do this analysis.

  rgds, Pal
  --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
  wrote:
  > 
  > How about the ^N225 open on Monday ?
  > [technical or non technical opinions will be appreciated...]
  > Dimitris
  > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
  > wrote:
  > > 
  > > You may see the next bar S_R already placed in the
  > > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/RSIc/
  > > folder.
  > > It is quite expressive for the short-term predictions.
  > > Dimitris
  > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
  > > > Hi DIMITRIS,
  > > > 
  > > > Could be a heck of a dog fight.  We were slapped hard right spot 
  > on
  > > > the 200-day.  This is the third flirtation with this level in the
  > > > past few months, and the other times it looked like we mounted it
  > > > successfully before giving it right back up.
  > > > 
  > > > Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with about a 200
  > > > point spread, give or take.  It could be a war.  OTOH, we (planet
  > > > earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect we have 
  > more
  > > > upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's 144 and 
  > the
  > > > 200 this week, the first cross since last August.  But I don't 
  > think
  > > > this is the end of the trend.  Nasty to see institutions fail at 
  > the
  > > > 200 however. But did they?
  > > > 
  > > > Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially banks.  We 
  > > are
  > > > talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost entirely 
  > on
  > > > the long side, this going on for several days now.  This is not 
  > Dick
  > > > and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home.  (Ichiro Suzuki, 
  > maybe.)
  > > > ^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a 
  > > significant
  > > > futures failure today. It was only *very* late that, convinced the
  > > > futures would not bounce today, institutions simply stopped
  > > > supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back quickly on any
  > > > weakness? And these issues represent the core of the market. They
  > > > (the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest of the
  > > > market.  One cannot bid up their shares without thinking the rest 
  > of
  > > > the market is undervalued as well.  (I'm talking about painting 
  > the
  > > > tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
  > > > 5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been going on 
  > > all
  > > > this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
  > > > 
  > > > Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now, it may 
  > be 
  > > a
  > > > while before we'll see it again.  I could see 2 to 4 weeks of 
  > fairly
  > > > good strength here before a serious pullback.
  > > > 
  > > > As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session.  I saw it 
  > as 
  > > a
  > > > canary in the coal mine.  So over bought near term, and even 
  > though
  > > > we are significantly less over bought, everyone here realizes the 
  > US
  > > > could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one is too 
  > eager
  > > > to run a long play into that kind of potential.  They gave a lot 
  > > back
  > > > in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of ^225 
  > > futures,
  > > > about all of it.
  > > > 
  > > > Remember, they want to shake every long out that they possibly can
  > > > before climbing over the 200 for a run.  That may be what we are
  > > > seeing here.  Any notion that the big players want us attending 
  > the
  > > > party is pure fantasy.  ^_^  They want us showing up significantly
  > > > late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
  > > > 
  > > > Or so it appears from over here.
  > > > 
  > > > Yuki
  > > > 
  > > > Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
  > > > 
  > > > DT> Where the support is. 
  > > > DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are ambiguous since 
  > > they
  > > > DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7 peaks] 
  > is 
  > > 2.76,
  > > > DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs] is -9.031.
  > > > DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after todays close.
  > > > DT> This support will be valid until a new trough appears. 
  > > > DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
  > > > DT> Will it be lower ?
  > > > DT> Who knows...
  > > > DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably] the Nov16 
  > > high
  > > > DT> [11,268]
  > > > DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather 
  > confusing, 
  > > you
  > > > DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the positive US 
  > > session...
  > > > DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
  > > > 
  > > > DT> //The RSIc trendlines
  > > > DT> procedure RSIc(n)
  > > > DT> { 
  > > > DT>  C=RSIa(C,n);
  > > > DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
  > > > DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
  > > > DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
  > > > DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
  > > > L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
  > > > DT> }
  > > > DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
  > > > DT> RSIc(n);
  > > > DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
  > > > DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
  > > > DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
  > > > DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
  > > > DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
  > > > DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
  > > > DT> dtS =endt-startt;
  > > > DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
  > > > DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2  ));
  > > > DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
  > > > DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x  -endt ) + bS; 
  > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-
  > 1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
  > > > DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
  > > > DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
  > > > DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
  > > > DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
  > > > DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
  > > > DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
  > > > DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2  ));
  > > > DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
  > > > DT> bR = endR;
  > > > DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x  -endt1 ) + bR; 
  > > > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-
  > > 1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
  > > > 
  > > > DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel ASCENDING 
  > > channel
  > > > DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is increasing by 
  > > 0.9/bar,
  > > > DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will have 
  > > tomorrows
  > > > DT> support at 10,946.
  > > > DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is quite 
  > > sensitive.
  > > > DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the expected Close 
  > > range ]
  > > > 
  > > > DT> Dimitris 
  > > > DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> 
  > > wrote:
  > > > >> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME ^225 
  > futures.
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came snorting 
  > > out
  > > > DT> of
  > > > >> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in no short 
  > > order.
  > > > >> It was your "last chance" to buy.  ^^_^^  But, about 9:45, the 
  > > > DT> market
  > > > >> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140.  No huge surprise 
  > to
  > > > >> those who were paying full attention.
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that this 
  > first
  > > > >> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone.  Okay, so the first 
  > plunge
  > > > >> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM session, we 
  > > waited at
  > > > >> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no buyers.  
  > We
  > > > >> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> So, we have technical damage here, for sure.  DT, I am still 
  > > sure 
  > > > DT> you
  > > > >> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance.  Clearly, the level is
  > > > >> higher.  But, we apparently need to test something lower 
  > before 
  > > we
  > > > >> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-way 
  > > sentiment
  > > > >> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the support 
  > line?
  > > > >> Could it be 10,900?
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it won't be 
  > > where
  > > > >> the morning traders will be happy.
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.)  ^_^
  > > > >> 
  > > > >> Yuki





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