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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Friday, November 12, 2004, 5:55:50 PM, you wrote:
>
> >> DT> Yuki, The last two candles give an obvious picture. To cross
> >> DT> 10,900 and go lower, you need V=68,000. [Nov11] To cross
> >> 10,900 DT> and go higher, you need V=81,000. [Nov12]
>
> There is one problem with this analysis, a problem you are probably
> not aware of. The second Friday of certain months causes abnormally
> large volume, because of what is called SQ (special quotation).
> Basically, this is futures and options settlement, which is
> determined once all ^225 issues open. As a result of the SQ, stocks
> open with substantially more volume than usual, sometimes enough
> volume to give a 25 or 33 percent boost to the entire day's total.
> It's even 50 percent of volume (the opening volume is 50 percent of
> the day's total) sometimes, although it was not anywhere near that
> today.
>
> So, the end result is that today was an SQ day, and therefor the
^225
> volume is inflated a bit. I would guess that since this was not a
> "big" month for expirations (Mar Jun Sept and Dec are the big ones)
> we are inflated about 15 percent on the volume total today. But as
a
> result, it makes the calculation you have made above rather
> difficult.
>
> Note: ^225 volume today was up (where the options and futures are
> most active) but ^IXJ volume (the larger TOPIX market) was up by a
> smaller percentage increase.
>
> Yuki
Yuki,
If V is up [and how much] is a T/A element. Why is up is not T/A, it
is fundamental analysis perhaps, but certainly not T/A.
This is why I do not include SQ days or Eliot Spitzer actions in my
analysis.
Dimitris
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