|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi DIMITRIS,
Thursday, November 11, 2004, 5:36:04 PM, you wrote:
DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
DT> wrote:
>> Hi DIMITRIS,
>>
>> Thursday, November 11, 2004, 4:32:29 PM, you wrote:
>>
>> DT> Yuki, YHOO data gives V=3,200 for ^N225 Sept7. Is it correct ?
>>
>> No. The correct figure for ^225 volume on that date is:
DT> 904,900,000.
DT> Yuki,
DT> YHOO gives
DT> http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^N225
DT> 10-Sep-04 168,400
DT> 9-Sep-04 104,000
DT> 8-Sep-04 89,200
DT> 7-Sep-04 3,200
DT> 6-Sep-04 94,400
DT> 3-Sep-04 75,000
DT> 2-Sep-04 62,000
DT> 1-Sep-04 66,000
DT> I think we have a 10,000 scaling difference.
DT> Should I replace this Sept7 3,200 with 90,490 ??
Yes. Those other figures are very close to what I have with that
scaling difference.
DT> The most probable scenario [for me] is the way to the 10,600 test.
DT> If the market will be positive tomorrow, it will take 2-3 more bars
DT> in the 10,900 area [thats why I call it resistance ]. If 10,900 was a
DT> support, you would see V=150,000, not the poor 68,000 in the last
DT> session...
DT> The 10,600 test would be very interesting. The market reacts at this
DT> level, but with no significant volume, it just reacts. The 10,600
DT> level is technical, not real support. If the big guys decide NOT TO
DT> REACT this time, the market will easily cross this level and will
DT> search lower trading ranges.
DT> Just my 2 euros, nothing more...
DT> Dimitris
Well, being flat now I would sure love to see it. Quite frankly, I
expected it to fail earlier (10,600) but it has held all the previous
tests. Every one. And 10,676 was the closing price on the last
trade day of 2003, so journeys down there threaten to put the whole
market into the red for the calendar year. Could happen of course;
no law against it. ^^_^^
Looking at TOPIX (^IXJ) volume, your scenario becomes more likely.
There have been three rallies now since the July slide. Each one on
diminished volume, certainly not a good sign. The ^225 volume does
not show this quite as clearly I think, although it is there. I
thought we might be off to the races this time, with nice volume on
11-2, even better on the next day (11-4), then pulling way back on
the decline on 11-8. Also, strong net buying by foreigners before
the open today. It's quite unusual to get a strong down day when
that happens, but there is no law against that either.
It may take a breakdown to clear the log jam, though. Margin balance
here has held at extremely high levels reached in April. So that
means the retail side has not capitulated. Until they do, every
rally is being met with margin liquidators. But they keep buying
every dip, too, as that has been the winning formula for about 18
months. So nothing really gets cleared out. Maybe we need a blood
bath. Personally, I'd love a shot to get very long between 10,000 and
10,200. I'd almost come to the conclusion I was not going to get the
chance down there again, especially when we were bumping 12,000 in
the spring. I might even trade in mid-December for that chance. ^_-
Yuki
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar.
Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/GHeqlB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Check AmiBroker web page at:
http://www.amibroker.com/
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|