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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Thursday, November 11, 2004, 4:32:29 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Yuki, YHOO data gives V=3,200 for ^N225 Sept7. Is it correct ?
>
> No. The correct figure for ^225 volume on that date is:
904,900,000.
Yuki,
YHOO gives
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^N225
10-Sep-04 168,400
9-Sep-04 104,000
8-Sep-04 89,200
7-Sep-04 3,200
6-Sep-04 94,400
3-Sep-04 75,000
2-Sep-04 62,000
1-Sep-04 66,000
I think we have a 10,000 scaling difference.
Should I replace this Sept7 3,200 with 90,490 ??
> DT> This day was a positive surprise, after the -1.3% of Sept3. It
is
> DT> probable to see this dead-cat-bounce tomorrow, but, this 3,200
is
> DT> quite confusing [and should be wrong] Please advise.
>
> Are you sure you are not asking about Sept 6? If so, volume for
^225
> on that day was: 750,400,000.
>
> I can certainly see similarities in the price patterns between then
> and now. Yes, it was a surprise, but the action on September 3
> portended the eventual swing, which was lower, after a lot of
> chopping.
>
> It is *very* possible that this is simply a fake out. After all, I
> did say this was a target area for entry, even though I did not do
> that today. There was a lot of technical damage done today, but as
> you know, almost nothing is irreversible. Volume totals today did
not
> reflect the price movement, and all we have done is pull back to the
> very bottom of a rising channel. If we hold very close to this
> level, it will look as good as it looks bad right now.
>
> But was not a pretty day. I was glad to step aside and let the
> adventuresome play. I particularly did not like the action in the
> futures, although most of the traders there probably belong in
prison
> anyway. ^^_^^ I'm up 66.24 percent this year (933.07
> risk-adjusted), and I'm just about ready to call it a year,
> especially if we get low-volume volatility like this (today's ^225
> volume was only 688,220,000). Normally, I take the middle of
December
> off anyway.
>
> Yuki
The most probable scenario [for me] is the way to the 10,600 test.
If the market will be positive tomorrow, it will take 2-3 more bars
in the 10,900 area [thats why I call it resistance ]. If 10,900 was a
support, you would see V=150,000, not the poor 68,000 in the last
session...
The 10,600 test would be very interesting. The market reacts at this
level, but with no significant volume, it just reacts. The 10,600
level is technical, not real support. If the big guys decide NOT TO
REACT this time, the market will easily cross this level and will
search lower trading ranges.
Just my 2 euros, nothing more...
Dimitris
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