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Coin tossing where the %wins are 50, yes, they are correct regarding
that. But trading is not just coin tossing. One can develop a
system to have %wins much greater than that. In addition to money
management and psychology, selecting the markets appropriately
(market timing) is a great part of that.
rgds, Pal
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Janos, Michael"
<michael.janos@xxxx> wrote:
> Just read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and I think the failure
of
> their argument is to prove their theory they tested indicators not
> systems and don't realise that a small edge with aggressive money
> management and risk control can give good positive returns.
However, it
> gave a good explanation of Alpha and Beta and has made me re-
examine my
> systems to make sure that the returns are not just Beta.
>
> Their answer to bubbles or any momentum trading is that by the time
the
> momentum is confirmed it would be too late to get in and once in you
> will lose any gains. If you do make any gains it is random luck. If
you
> point to anyone consistently making money they will say that in a
coin
> tossing competition somebody will always toss ten heads in a row.
>
> Personally, they can believe what they like, I'm happy to quietly
pick
> up the 100 dollar bills from the sidewalk.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Franco Gornati [mailto:francogornati@x...]
> Sent: Tuesday, 9 November 2004 5:24 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: wrong Backtesting results:
>
>
>
> quanttrader714 wrote
> >Personally, I put these folks in the same category as Mr. Duell:
> >
> >"Everything that can be invented has already been invented."
> >-- Charles H. Duell, director of the U.S. Patent Office, 1899
>
> lol, nice pick Mark ;)
>
>
>
> Check AmiBroker web page at:
> http://www.amibroker.com/
>
> Check group FAQ at:
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
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