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Bill: yours is well stated, perhaps
understated.
DT: for perspective, if you receive PDF
attachments from the first post, attached is a semi weekly newsletter item
(most recent) by a person name Gayer in which extremely complex waves are
described in minute detail. I have been collecting Mr. Gayers pdfs for 6
months or more and marvel as he changes some definitions and coins new terms to
keep his projections of many months ago intact. It is quite interesting,
but as Bill says, serves a background “information” of a sort.
Many Elliot Wavers will sometimes (innocently or not) change their wave
labeling in order to match some preconceived notion they have of what the
market “should do”.
There is or was an EW program called ElWave
which, as I recall, would analyze a chart and churn and churn and put up a
little dialog box with the number of “combinations” of wave counts
that the program analyzed and show you the top x percent of repeating wave
counts. At times the counter would run into the millions of combinations
that the program was analyzing. (I often wondered how it did this on my slow
older computer, but the numbers on the screen “could not lie”.)
You hit me pretty hard in a previous
message about an innocent comment I made about “not being able to program
something in AFL”. I believe it was the Advanced GET hidden
proprietary codes for the ellipse. (I was happy to see that the effort
went from ellipses to parabolas, and it is out of such connections that real
innovations are made.) I have publicly and privately
acknowledged your extreme skill in programming creative AFL constructions, but
I dare say that EW analysis and all of its many (subjective) aspects can not be
put wholly into AFL. As Bill says, however, should you try, then good
luck.
And thanks for all your contributions and
efforts.
Ken
-----Original Message-----
From: wavemechanic
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, June 17, 2004
12:00 PM
To: AmiBroker, User
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re:
Identifying Elliott Waves using AFL
<span
>DT:
<span
>I love your simple view of life. Yes, I am sure
that the basics of EW (5 up, 3 down, etc.) can be defined (Dan's Fibonacci
pattern code is a good start). But reality sets in very quickly and
one has to consider non-ideal situations where subjective and complimentary
analyses are used. The simple part is the coding, the tough part is
dealing with the "infinite" number of situations in which non-EW
factors are taken into account in making judgments about the final EW count.
And then, of course, there is the small complication that there are at least
three schools of EW analysis and they all produce different counts except for
the simplest situations. Why do you think that some of the programs give
the user the option to insert their own count? Oh, and by the way, why do
you think that the commercial programs often produce different counts in less
than ideal situations?
<span
>You say "code may reproduce exactly what you do
manually" and that "subjective EW counting may be
coded." You obviously have not looked into EW and believe that
it comes down to some easily definable rules and that even subjective
evaluation can be defined and thereby rendered objective or
"manual." Except for simple patterns, EW is often not a
manual, mechanical exercise in which subjectivity morphs into objectivity,
although that is the thrust of Neely's work but I doubt that he thinks he
has reached that goal. Consider the problem that you encountered of
coding a simple H&S pattern and the fact that some users agreed with the
output and others did not. Multiply that situation by 10 ^ 20 and
you will be in the EW world. We are not yet dealing with artificial
intelligence.
<span
>As for the commercial programs, if they produce
different counts, or counts that change as new data is obtained, which one
is right? IMO, the one that produces the same count as the user which in
turn requires that the user be expert in the subject. EW programs
should, I believe, used as an aid and not a replacement, although to
be sure many take a leap of faith and assume that they can use them
in "cruise control."
<span
>However, far be it from me to discourage
you. You are a good AFL programming technician, but if you are interested
in attempting to program this type of analysis I suggest that you first become
expert in the subject, including the various routes taken by the commercial
programs, before embarking on this lifelong quest. This is the reason, I
suspect, that many use EW only as background (e.g., is the market in an
impulsive or corrective mode) in conjunction with other analyses. This is
a relatively trivial use of EW that is quite different from those that
investigate every nuance and/or use it for trading signals.
<span
>Keep us updated on your progress and good luck.
<span
>Bill
-- Original Message -----
<span
>From:<font
size=2 face=Arial> <a
href="" title="TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx">DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
To:<font size=2
face=Arial> <a
href="" title="amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent:<font size=2
face=Arial> Thursday, June
17, 2004 <span
>3:22 AM
Subject:<font size=2
face=Arial> [amibroker] Re:
Identifying Elliott Waves using AFL
Bill, come on !!
If you describe what you do manually, then it may be coded in AFL.
Useful or not is another topic, but it is not a reason not to code it.
A code may reproduce exactly what you do manually and you may equally
trust it.
Any subjective EW counting may be coded in AFL, especially if there
are other softwares in the market doing the job. What do these
softwares have behind the curtain ? Nothing but a "language" by far
worse compared to AFL. And, in last analysis, these "specific"
softwares could not even dream the rest AFL applications.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"wavemechanic" <wd78@x...> wrote:
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: buzzmr
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Wednesday, June 16, 2004 10:35 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] Identifying Elliott Waves using AFL
>
>
> Has anyone here attempted to use AmiBroker's AFL code to
identify
and
> mark Elliott Wave 'legs' on a chart? I would think this
is
rather
> involved, but any feedback and/or suggested coding would be
> appreciated. Thanks!!
>
> Not only very involved, but since EW counts are often quite
subjective I doubt that you would trust the code to duplicate what
you do manually. There are several programs that do provide counts.
You might try them on a trial basis to see if any of them provide a
count under a variety of conditions and markets that you are happy
with. I never reached a satisfactory comfort level with those
programs and doubt that anyone starting from scratch will exceed
their performance.
>
> Buzz
>
>
>
>
> Check AmiBroker web page at:
> http://www.amibroker.com/
>
> Check group FAQ at:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
> Yahoo! Groups Links
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Attachment:
061304gayer.pdf
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Description: "Description: Adobe PDF document"
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