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Here it is:
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Steve
----- Original Message -----
From: "nickt75" <<A
href="">nvt1@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <<A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 8:51 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
> Steve,> > I would like to see the original
chart. Here is my email address: > <A
href="">nvt1@xxxxxxxxxxx> >
Nick> > --- In <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve
Almond" <steve2@x...> wrote:> >
Can I send the original chart direct to you? (and if so, how?)> > All
should be clear(er) about the method, then.> > > >
Steve> > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "aequalsz"
<aequalsz@x...>> > To: <<A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 8:17 PM> > Subject: [amibroker] Re:
Something New?> > > > > > > Sorry, don't
know. I couldn't view the attachment and I don't get> > >
email from the group so wasn't able to view the original graph >
showing> > > the method.> > > Reformulated the problem
st it did pass through the beginning and > end> > > points
and found the max "outliers" and passed curves though those> > >
also. Problem is, if the CAGR curve always ends at the end > point,
how> > > do you ever get a buy signal? As you can see I'm
quite as > mystified> > > as you are. Maybe
more.> > >> > > Not sure why the original method
didn't pass through the end > points.> > > I just backsolved
the compound interest formula, ie,> > >> >
> (Close_initial)*(1+i)^n =
Close_final> > >> > > for the required interest, i
using daily data.> > >> > > a> >
>> > >> > >> > > --- In <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve
Almond" <steve2@x...> >
wrote:> > > > It would seem that the CAGR curve should pass
through the > latest closing> > > > price. Is the
difference due to rounding of the CAGR figure?> > > >>
> > > Steve> > > >> > > >> >
> > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: "aequalsz"
<aequalsz@x...>> > > > To:
<<A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 6:55 PM> > > >
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?> > > >> > >
>> > > > > OK. I went back to the original method.
Works a little > better.> > > > >> > >
> > a> > > > >> > > > >> >
> > >> > > > > --- In <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"aequalsz" <aequalsz@x...> >
wrote:> > > > > > It looks like some of the tech stocks
will have to go into > negative> > > > > > numbers
to be buy candidates. Do you use extreme high and > low>
> > points> > > > > > relative to the CAGR curve for
the series of curves or > other more> > > > > >
intermediate points?> > > > > >> > > >
> > a> > > > > >> > > > >
>> > > > > >> > > > > > --- In <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve
Almond" > <steve2@x...>> >
> wrote:> > > > > > > I came across a 'new' method
of investing whilst perusing > the> > > Motley> >
> > > > Fool boards (I think a subscription is required - sorry).
> It's> > > called> > > > > > the BMW
system after the inventor's name BuildMWell.> > > > >
> > <A
href="">http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20414790>
> > > > > >> > > > > > > Basically,
he takes a long price history (typically 30 > years of> > >
> > > monthly data) and constructs a series of % CAGR (compound
> annual> > > > > > growth rate) curves which
encompass the data.> > > > > > >> > > >
> > > Here is an example (PEP) from, I believe, Excel:> >
> > > > >> > > > > > >> > >
> > > > The first curve uses today's price and the price 30 years
> ago to> > > > > > calculate the current CAGR (say
11.3%) which he then draws> > > (manually)> > > >
> > on a chart printout.> > > > > > > He simply
calculates the price every 5 years assuming an > annual> > >
> > > 11.3% increase and connects the dots with a French curve!>
> > > > > > Similar curves are then drawn to hit the
obvious high > and low> > > points.> > > >
> > >> > > > > > > In this way he invests when
the stock is > historically 'low'. For> > > > > >
example see the above chart about mid 2002.> > > > > >
> As you will appreciate, this is not a short term system, > but
BMW> > > > > > claims not to have had ANY losers since
starting in 1999!> > > > > > > The question, of course,
is can we draw these curves in > AB?> > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Thanks,> > > > >
> >> > > > > > > Steve> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > >> > >
> >> > > > > Send BUG REPORTS to <A
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