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Steve,
I would like to see the original chart. Here is my email address:
nvt1@xxxxxxxxxxx
Nick
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx> wrote:
> Can I send the original chart direct to you? (and if so, how?)
> All should be clear(er) about the method, then.
>
> Steve
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 8:17 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
>
>
> > Sorry, don't know. I couldn't view the attachment and I don't get
> > email from the group so wasn't able to view the original graph
showing
> > the method.
> > Reformulated the problem st it did pass through the beginning and
end
> > points and found the max "outliers" and passed curves though those
> > also. Problem is, if the CAGR curve always ends at the end
point, how
> > do you ever get a buy signal? As you can see I'm quite as
mystified
> > as you are. Maybe more.
> >
> > Not sure why the original method didn't pass through the end
points.
> > I just backsolved the compound interest formula, ie,
> >
> > (Close_initial)*(1+i)^n = Close_final
> >
> > for the required interest, i using daily data.
> >
> > a
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > It would seem that the CAGR curve should pass through the
latest closing
> > > price. Is the difference due to rounding of the CAGR figure?
> > >
> > > Steve
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
> > > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 6:55 PM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
> > >
> > >
> > > > OK. I went back to the original method. Works a little
better.
> > > >
> > > > a
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > It looks like some of the tech stocks will have to go into
negative
> > > > > numbers to be buy candidates. Do you use extreme high and
low
> > points
> > > > > relative to the CAGR curve for the series of curves or
other more
> > > > > intermediate points?
> > > > >
> > > > > a
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond"
<steve2@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > I came across a 'new' method of investing whilst perusing
the
> > Motley
> > > > > Fool boards (I think a subscription is required - sorry).
It's
> > called
> > > > > the BMW system after the inventor's name BuildMWell.
> > > > > > http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20414790
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Basically, he takes a long price history (typically 30
years of
> > > > > monthly data) and constructs a series of % CAGR (compound
annual
> > > > > growth rate) curves which encompass the data.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Here is an example (PEP) from, I believe, Excel:
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The first curve uses today's price and the price 30 years
ago to
> > > > > calculate the current CAGR (say 11.3%) which he then draws
> > (manually)
> > > > > on a chart printout.
> > > > > > He simply calculates the price every 5 years assuming an
annual
> > > > > 11.3% increase and connects the dots with a French curve!
> > > > > > Similar curves are then drawn to hit the obvious high
and low
> > points.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In this way he invests when the stock is
historically 'low'. For
> > > > > example see the above chart about mid 2002.
> > > > > > As you will appreciate, this is not a short term system,
but BMW
> > > > > claims not to have had ANY losers since starting in 1999!
> > > > > > The question, of course, is can we draw these curves in
AB?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Steve
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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