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Can I send the original chart direct to you? (and if so, how?)
All should be clear(er) about the method, then.
Steve
----- Original Message -----
From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 8:17 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
> Sorry, don't know. I couldn't view the attachment and I don't get
> email from the group so wasn't able to view the original graph showing
> the method.
> Reformulated the problem st it did pass through the beginning and end
> points and found the max "outliers" and passed curves though those
> also. Problem is, if the CAGR curve always ends at the end point, how
> do you ever get a buy signal? As you can see I'm quite as mystified
> as you are. Maybe more.
>
> Not sure why the original method didn't pass through the end points.
> I just backsolved the compound interest formula, ie,
>
> (Close_initial)*(1+i)^n = Close_final
>
> for the required interest, i using daily data.
>
> a
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx> wrote:
> > It would seem that the CAGR curve should pass through the latest closing
> > price. Is the difference due to rounding of the CAGR figure?
> >
> > Steve
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
> > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 6:55 PM
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
> >
> >
> > > OK. I went back to the original method. Works a little better.
> > >
> > > a
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > It looks like some of the tech stocks will have to go into negative
> > > > numbers to be buy candidates. Do you use extreme high and low
> points
> > > > relative to the CAGR curve for the series of curves or other more
> > > > intermediate points?
> > > >
> > > > a
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > > I came across a 'new' method of investing whilst perusing the
> Motley
> > > > Fool boards (I think a subscription is required - sorry). It's
> called
> > > > the BMW system after the inventor's name BuildMWell.
> > > > > http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20414790
> > > > >
> > > > > Basically, he takes a long price history (typically 30 years of
> > > > monthly data) and constructs a series of % CAGR (compound annual
> > > > growth rate) curves which encompass the data.
> > > > >
> > > > > Here is an example (PEP) from, I believe, Excel:
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The first curve uses today's price and the price 30 years ago to
> > > > calculate the current CAGR (say 11.3%) which he then draws
> (manually)
> > > > on a chart printout.
> > > > > He simply calculates the price every 5 years assuming an annual
> > > > 11.3% increase and connects the dots with a French curve!
> > > > > Similar curves are then drawn to hit the obvious high and low
> points.
> > > > >
> > > > > In this way he invests when the stock is historically 'low'. For
> > > > example see the above chart about mid 2002.
> > > > > As you will appreciate, this is not a short term system, but BMW
> > > > claims not to have had ANY losers since starting in 1999!
> > > > > The question, of course, is can we draw these curves in AB?
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks,
> > > > >
> > > > > Steve
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
>
>
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