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Sorry, don't know. I couldn't view the attachment and I don't get
email from the group so wasn't able to view the original graph showing
the method.
Reformulated the problem st it did pass through the beginning and end
points and found the max "outliers" and passed curves though those
also. Problem is, if the CAGR curve always ends at the end point, how
do you ever get a buy signal? As you can see I'm quite as mystified
as you are. Maybe more.
Not sure why the original method didn't pass through the end points.
I just backsolved the compound interest formula, ie,
(Close_initial)*(1+i)^n = Close_final
for the required interest, i using daily data.
a
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx> wrote:
> It would seem that the CAGR curve should pass through the latest closing
> price. Is the difference due to rounding of the CAGR figure?
>
> Steve
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 2004 6:55 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Something New?
>
>
> > OK. I went back to the original method. Works a little better.
> >
> > a
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "aequalsz" <aequalsz@xxxx> wrote:
> > > It looks like some of the tech stocks will have to go into negative
> > > numbers to be buy candidates. Do you use extreme high and low
points
> > > relative to the CAGR curve for the series of curves or other more
> > > intermediate points?
> > >
> > > a
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Steve Almond" <steve2@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > I came across a 'new' method of investing whilst perusing the
Motley
> > > Fool boards (I think a subscription is required - sorry). It's
called
> > > the BMW system after the inventor's name BuildMWell.
> > > > http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=20414790
> > > >
> > > > Basically, he takes a long price history (typically 30 years of
> > > monthly data) and constructs a series of % CAGR (compound annual
> > > growth rate) curves which encompass the data.
> > > >
> > > > Here is an example (PEP) from, I believe, Excel:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The first curve uses today's price and the price 30 years ago to
> > > calculate the current CAGR (say 11.3%) which he then draws
(manually)
> > > on a chart printout.
> > > > He simply calculates the price every 5 years assuming an annual
> > > 11.3% increase and connects the dots with a French curve!
> > > > Similar curves are then drawn to hit the obvious high and low
points.
> > > >
> > > > In this way he invests when the stock is historically 'low'. For
> > > example see the above chart about mid 2002.
> > > > As you will appreciate, this is not a short term system, but BMW
> > > claims not to have had ANY losers since starting in 1999!
> > > > The question, of course, is can we draw these curves in AB?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > Steve
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxx
> > Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxx
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > (Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
> > --------------------------------------------
> > Check group FAQ at:
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> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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