|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
You're nitpicking and taking my admittedly imprecise comment (nothing
random about that) out of the context. You're incorrect about the
distributions being subjective because they are what they are.
Period. All observers using the exact same criteria would quantify
them in precisely the same way. That means they exist outside of
peoples' minds and just because different people perceive them
differently doesn't make them so in reality.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "fgornati" <francogornati@xxxx>
wrote:
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "quanttrader714"
> <quanttrader714@xxxx> wrote:
> > Actually, confusing randomness with zero expectancy is exactly
what
> I
> > thought Herman was doing, thus my comment. BTW, the distribution
is
> > *not* subjective and it *does* exist. It's just constantly
> changing.
>
> It exists in the eyes of the beholder.
> The distribution of probabilities is always subjective.
> It depends of the degree of knowledge (of confidence) you have.
> If you have some insider information you may form a completely
> different opinion (distribution of probabilities) about what the
> price of a stock may/will be.
> If you know that something will happen for sure then your
probability
> for that event may be 1 and 0 for all the other possibilities while
> for me the distribution may be uniform or other else. What is then
the
> *objective* distribution of probabilities for that event?
> When you say that 'Van Tharp specifically says that a system must
> have a positive expectancy to make money. In other words, an edge.
> Nothing random about that.', it should be told that the expectancy
is
> calculated upon a distribution of probabilities of a random
variable.
> So it's not correct to conclude that there is 'Nothing random about
> that.'
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|