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Just
can't resist one more question :-)
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size=2>
qt, is
that 25 years of mechanical trading? Anything else is statistically and/or
mathematically irrelevant to the issues discussed ;-)
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Take
care qt, I enjoyed the exchange.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>herman
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004
12:44 PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses
pleaseThanks for the advice, LOL, but I've been
trading for over 25 years. Your posts clearly show that you don't have
even the most basic graspof probability and statistics. Maybe when
you open your mind a littleyou'll be profitable too.--- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"<psytek@xxxx>
wrote:> InLine...> -----Original
Message-----> From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxx]> Sent: Wednesday, March 10,
2004 9:17 AM> To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: [amibroker] Re:
Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > >
Generalized and popularized opinions, LOL? This is not a touchy
feely> discussion about social issues, this stuff is pretty
cut and dried.> > You said it: "dried" ;-)>
> The only thing your post and example goes to show
is that you don't> understand what he wrote. You're
misleading new traders on this big> time.>
> What was your methodology? You say you traded the
system on 100> stocks, had about 50% winning trades and
8000 total trades. What do> you mean when you say you
had no more than 6 losers in a row? No more> than 6
in a row on any single stock? Or did you line up all 8000>
trades by date? And if so, did you count *simultaneous losing
trades*> as being in a row? And what about sequential
groups of simultaneous> losing trades? If not, why
not?> > I explained that this system was designed
for a handfull of singlestocks> therefore i only considered losing
streaks for individual stocks, it> wouldn't make sense to group
together unrelated stocks that would not be> traded simultaneously
anyway. I ran it on the N100 just to illustrate a> point. Our
discussion did not address the issue of portfolio trading.>
> Simultaneous losing trades would> have
a more devastating effect on your account than sequential
losing> trades unless you're increasing your trade size as
your account goes> down. Trading the ND100 stocks
over the same period is like trading a> flock of birds
where the majority are moving in roughly the same>
direction at any given time. Finally, just because you "could
easily> have 10 losses in a row" (p. 138) doesn't mean you
*always* will, LOL.> > But in ten times the amount
of trades you would at least expect ONE of> them, but I didn't even get
more than 6 sequential losing trades,let alone> one of ten. I think
the only way to convince you qt, is for you toanalyze> some of your
own trading systems, have you done so? If you did,perhaps you> can
show us a chart. Or are you just taking published material asgospel?
I> wonder how many on this list have actually thoroughly analyzed
their> systems? AmiBroker is a wonderful but under-utilized research
tool; it> should be be used in universities to make economic classes
moreinteresting.> > One *valid*
counterexample (not sure yours is) or even many shows>
nothing. On the contrary, they're to be expected.>
> We have our own ways and everybody should trade in
whatever wayhe/she is> comfortable with. I have been disillusioned
(and lost money) because I> believed and followed traditional trading
methods. Things have gonebetter> since i went my own way a few
years ago. Again, whatever literature you> read, I encourage people to
analyze, verify and research their ownsystems.> That is the only
point i was trying to make.> > imho, if you want to
make money trading you have to think "outside the> box", I equate "cut
and dried" stuff with obsolete stuff. Thebookstores are> full of
it. Cut and dried stuff is nice to teach you the conceptsbut not
to> help you design a trading system. I never got a single
tradingsystem from a> book to work satisfactory, ... I tried
hundreds. Show me one singlesystem> that works well today from The
Encyclopedia of technical indicators(Colby).> >
Thanks qt, I value and respect your opinion but enough on VT, Iwant
to> get back to other stuff.> > best
regards,> Herman.> > > ---
In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen">
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:> > Hello
qt,> >> > On page 138 VT writes:
"... In fact, over 1000 trials you could> easily
have> > 10 losers in a row....">
>> > Here is an old test result of a mediocre trading
system that was> designed> > for a
handful of stocks, in order to get sufficient trials I ran
the> system> > on all stocks of the
N100: a bad combination that gave only about>
50%> > winning trades. Even so, in the 8000 trades thus
simulated there was> not one> >
losing streak with more then 6 losers in a row. This goes to
show> that> > generalized and
popularized opinions may not apply to your system> and
for> > this reason I encourage people to do their own
homework.> >> > best
regards,> > herman>
>> >>
> Losing Streak 6 5 4 3 2
1> > Probability of
occurrence 0.10% 0.31% 0.78% 2.49% 8.49% 37.18%>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
>> >> >>
> -----Original Message----->
> From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxx]> > Sent:
Tuesday, March 09, 2004 5:47 PM> > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Subject:
[amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please>
>> >> > Whoa!!! I
feel an obligation to correct the record because you> and
Pal> > keep going on and on and clearly
neither of you understands this> >
stuff. More comments below.> >>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den
Bergen"> > <psytek@xxxx>
wrote:> > > Some time ago we had lengthy
discussions on Von Tharp's> theories.>
> If i> > > recall
correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena>
>> > You recall incorrectly. On page 42
he specifically states "the> markets>
> are not random."> >>
> > and bases all> > >
his statistical analysis on that. This is completely>
contradictory> > to
those> > > of us who design mechanical
trading systems that give 60-75%>
winning> > trades,>
>> > There is *absolutely nothing at all*
contradictory with "Von> Tharp's>
> theories" <sic> and "mechanical trading systems that
give 60-75%> > winning
trades."> >> > >
have well distributed and defined losing and winning
streaks,> and> >
have> > > profit as well as stop control
measures in place.> >
>> > > At the time of the thread i
bought and read his book "Trade your> > way
to> > > finacial freedom". It was fun
reading however I proved a number> of>
> his> > > assumptions
wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems are>
> definitely not> > >
random.> >> > Where
are you getting random systems from? Van Tharp
specifically> > says that a system must have
a positive expectancy to make money.>
In> > other words, an edge. Nothing
random about that. Does this mean>
the> > concept of randomness has no valid
role to play? Absolutely not.>
>> >> > >Testing
several systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade>
> > durations from 2-10 bars his predictions for winning and
losing> > streaks for>
> > example was way off.>
>> > Huh?>
>> > >If you are interested you may
search the archives, i> > > posted some
of my code used to analyze systems, as well as>
results> > complete>
> > with charts on this list.>
> >> > > Far too little
time is spend on system analysis, way too much>
time> > goes into>
> > driving profits up by optimization. All systems are
different;> > analyze
your> > > own systems, do not believe
that anybody else can tell you have>
they> > behave>
> > under various market conditions.>
>> > Again, you've totally missed the
point. I urge any new traders> >
reading this thread to read Van Tharp's book because the
concepts> > absolutely work if understood
and applied properly.> >>
> >> > > bets
regards,> > > herman.>
> > -----Original
Message-----> > > From: Pal
Anand [mailto:palsanand@xxxx]> >
> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34 PM>
> > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses
please> > >>
> >> > > I
downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and
played> > with>
> > it. The first 2 levels are a piece of
cake. The 3rd level is> >
> difficult, but in only 3 trials out of 75 I finished
it. I> think> >
I> > > have unlocked the
secret code for the right combination of the>
> Risk> > > ($
per Share) and Investment level (# Shares to buy.)
This> is no> >
> mean feat. There is only one combination which is
optimum.> Find> >
> this combination and I would acknowledge that you are
a> Master and> >
> you dont need to spend on anything else. Here are
the> > instructions>
> > to download and for the
game:> > >>
> > <A
href="">http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm>
> >> > >
Position Sizing™: The Secrets> >
> of the Masters Trading Game>
> > Instructions for Level
Three> > >>
> > This level is similar to level one.
You are given a trading> >
system> > > that goes long in
the market. Your only choice is to decide>
how> > > much to risk for
each trade. That's it! You simply decide>
how> > much>
> > to risk. Overall, level two is an even
better system than> level>
> one> > >
gave you. Over many trials, your expectancy will be 0.91
as> > > compared with 0.45
for the first level.> >
>> > > Now that you've
reached this level, we recommend that you> begin
by> > > saving the
game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have to>
> start> > >
again at the beginning of the game if you don't have a
saved> game> >
at> > > this level.
However, we hope you can get through the game>
without> > > going
bankrupt.> > >>
> > Once again, you will have the opportunity to
make 75 trades.> Your> >
> minimum goal is to make a profit of 50% by the end of the
75> > trades>
> > so that you can advance to level four.
However, you will> > >
automatically advance to level three should you increase
your> > equity>
> > by 500% from the starting
value.> > >>
> > If you have not made a profit at the end of
75 trades, you> will> >
need> > > to start this level
over again. However, if you have made a>
> profit> > >
that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades
to> > reach>
> > your goal of 50% to advance to the next
level.> > >>
> > If you have a loss at the end of 75 trades,
you will have to> start>
> > the level over again with a 10% penalty
(subtracted from your> >
prior> > > starting
equity).> > >>
> > The probabilities and payoffs for this level
are given in the> > >
statistics section of the game (in the View menu.)
We'd> suggest> >
> that you study them carefully and develop a strategy
before> you> >
> begin the game.> >
>> > > Level
Three> > >>
> >> > >
Questions & Answers> >
>> > >
Question:> > > Why am I not
allowed to go short? I would be right 70% of the>
> > time. Isn't that what it's all
about?> > >>
> > Response:>
> > Hopefully you'll step out of the box of
needing to be right by> > >
playing this game. You should be learning the importance
of> > large R->
> > multiples over being right. Wait until
you get a 30R or 20R> trade>
> > in your favor and see what that does for
your account. Or> would>
> you> > >
rather have that against you? If being right is that>
important to> > > you, you'll
have your chance to go against the expectancy in>
level> > >
five.> > >>
> > Question:>
> > What's a good strategy to play this
game?> > >>
> > Response:>
> > Figuring out a good strategy and learning
from your mistakes> is> >
one> > > of the skill
requirements of this game. What is your>
worst-case> > > loss?
It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by risking>
> over> > >
25% on any trade. Also think about how many losses you
could> have> >
> in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's
very> likely> >
that> > > you might have 9
losses in a row in your 75 trades. You might>
> even> > >
have a streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You need
to> play to> >
> survive that you that you can make money on the 30R
trades> that> >
> might come up. With those two guidelines, design your
own> > strategy.>
> >> > >
IITM also sells products designed to help you with
strategy> > >
development. These include 1) the money management
report;> 2) a> >
> newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3)
optimal> bet> >
> size software that will be available for purchase in
mid-2002.> > >>
> > Question:>
> > Once again, I don't have much information on
any of these> > > investments
or trades. How am I to know which one's will go>
up?> > >>
> > Response:>
> > You don't know what will go up, that's
true. But you do know> the>
> > payoffs and probabilities of the system you
will be trading.> >
That's> > > all you need to
know to figure out to work out bet sizing> >
> strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and
this> game> >
> is designed to get you away from predicting the market
and> into> >
> thinking about those strategies.>
> >> > >
rgds, Pal> > >>
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"relentless1000" <cgmv@xxxx>> >
wrote:> > > > I purchased
the "Developing a winning trading system that>
fits> > >
you"> > > > audio tape
course back in December 03 (got it on sale for>
$699).> > > > Just as I've
found with other books and courses its not a>
> > blueprint>
> > > for making a fortune, but I did come
away learning a> handful of>
> > > helpful things.>
> > >> >
> > I found it a little pricey since it is an audio
taped> seminar.> >
> The> > >
> advertising for it says it's profesionally edited. I
found> the> >
> > recording to be of less quality than I expected.
Several> times> >
> > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask questions
or> make> >
> > comments that you cannot hear well, sometimes even
the> > instructors>
> > > cannot be heard for short periods until
the microphone picks> >
them> > > > up. Not
a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a little>
> > better> >
> > job than this.> >
> >> > >
> The content is organized well and pretty informative,>
altough I> > >
think> > > > for much less
money you could buy some books and get pretty>
much> > >
the> > > > same
info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade your>
way to> > > > Financial
Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book "Computer>
Analysis> > of>
> > > the Futures Market" (Charles was a
major part of the audio> taped>
> > > course, I found his input very helpful)
you'd get a> majority of>
> > the> >
> > technical content.> >
> >> > >
> Good Luck> > >
>> > > >
GV> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa">
<advenosa@xxxx>> > >
wrote:> > > > > All of
his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak>
performance> > > > course,
but I know someone who did. He learned a lot about>
> himself> > >
> when he went through it, but I don't think he is using
much> of> >
it> > > > today. Just like
anything else. I don't think you are using>
much> > >
of> > > > the stuff you
learned in college today, either, but it was>
good> > > > training. You
pays your money and you takes your chances, so>
> goes> > >
the> > > > cliche. Why
don't you call Van and ask him about his course>
> > > offerings?>
> > > >>
> > > > Al V.>
> > > > ----- Original Message
-----> > > >
> From: Greg> >
> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56
AM> > > > >
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses>
> please> > >
> >> > > >
>> > > >
> Al and Phil,> >
> > >> >
> > > Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps'
courses. I was> > >
wondering> > > > if you
know anything about his Peak Performance Course for>
> > Investors>
> > > and Traders. It looks interesting,
although a little> pricey. I>
> > know> >
> > of people paying much more for a personal adviser that
works> > with>
> > > them on some of the areas that Tharp
deals with, such as> making>
> a> > > >
business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that will>
> > > psychologically prepare you for
trading. I guess I'll have> to>
> read> > >
> through the description of the course more thoroughly
and> then> >
> decide> > >
> if I it would be worthwhile for me.> >
> > >> >
> > > Thanks again for your
comments,> > > >
>> > > >
> Greg> > >
> > ----- Original Message
-----> > > >
> From: Al Venosa>
> > > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06,
2004 11:41 AM> > > >
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
courses> > please>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > > Hi,
Greg:> > > >
>> > > >
> I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course about
2.5> years> >
> ago.> > >
> Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I enjoyed
it> > > > immensely,
especially all the money management material, the>
> main> > >
> lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of
sorts.> Since I'm> >
> more> > >
> of a mechanical trading system type of person, I didn't
get> that> >
> much> > >
> out of his presentations because a lot of that sort
of> trading> >
> > philosophy is discretionary, or at least
subjective> judgment. If>
> > > that's your thing, then you will likely
get a lot more out> of it>
> > than> >
> > I did. But I thought the money management stuff was
very> > >
worthwhile.> > > > For
about $80, you could buy Van's Report on Money>
Management> > plus>
> > > his book "Trade Your Way to Financial
Freedom" and learn> all you>
> > need> >
> > about money management for a fraction of the price of
his> > course,>
> > > IMO.>
> > > >>
> > > >
Regards,> > > >
>> > > >
> Al Venosa> >
> > > ----- Original
Message -----> > > >
> From: Greg>
> > >
> To:
AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx> > >
> > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004
10:18 AM> > > >
> Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van
Tharp courses> > please>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > >
> Hi,>
> > > >>
> > >
> I was wondering if anyone here has
taken any of the> > >
courses> > > > offered by
Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on>
there> > > >
helpfulness.> > > >
>> > > >
> Thanks,>
> > >
> Greg>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > >
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