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You
may be right Jonathan, but we are not talking about profit here, and the system
was a true reversal system, going Long and Short; 100 % in the market. I think
that voids the issue of survivorship - but I have never given it any thought so
i might be wrong. However, if survivorship was a issue i should have had 20
Short losers in a row ;-)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>herman.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Jonathan VanClute
[mailto:lovingoptions@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004
7:16 PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE:
[amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
However... dont't forget about the issue of Survivorship. You used
the N100 as a filter for stock selection, which is already going to influence
your results...
JonathanHerman van den Bergen
<psytek@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE class=replbq
>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Hello qt,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
On
page 138 VT writes: "... In fact, over 1000 trials you could easily have 10
losers in a row...."
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Here is an old test result of a mediocre trading system that was
designed for a handful of stocks, in order to get sufficient trials I
ran the system on all stocks of the N100: a bad combination that gave only
about 50% winning trades. Even so, in the 8000 trades thus simulated there
was not one losing streak with more then 6 losers in a row. This
goes to show that generalized and popularized opinions may not apply to your
system and for this reason <SPAN
class=703501523-09032004><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>I encourage people to do their own homework.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>best regards,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>herman
<IMG alt="" hspace=0
src="" align=baseline border=0>
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0
cellPadding=0 width=354 align=left border=0 x:str>
<COL
width=95>
<COL
span=5 width=42>
<COL
width=49>
<TD class=xl24
width=95 height=17>
Losing
Streak
<TD class=xl24
width=42 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>6
<TD class=xl24
width=42 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>5
<TD class=xl24
width=42 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>4
<TD class=xl24
width=42 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>3
<TD class=xl24
width=42 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>2
<TD class=xl24
width=49 x:num>
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>1
<TD class=xl25
width=95 height=34>
Probability of
occurrence
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="1.0357327809425167E-3">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>0.10%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="3.1071983428275505E-3">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>0.31%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="7.7679958570688766E-3">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>0.78%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="2.4857586742620404E-2">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>2.49%
<TD class=xl25
width=42 x:num="8.4930088037286383E-2">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>8.49%
<TD class=xl25
width=49 x:num="0.37182806835836352">
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>37.18%
<FONT face=Arial
size=2> <FONT
color=#0000ff size=2>
<SPAN
class=703501523-09032004>
<SPAN
class=703501523-09032004><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
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size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: quanttrader714
[mailto:quanttrader714@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, March 09, 2004
5:47 PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses
pleaseWhoa!!! I feel an obligation to correct the
record because you and Palkeep going on and on and clearly neither of
you understands thisstuff. More comments below.--- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"<psytek@xxxx>
wrote:> Some time ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's
theories.If i> recall correctly he treats the market like a
Random phenomena You recall incorrectly. On page 42 he
specifically states "the marketsare not random."> and bases
all> his statistical analysis on that. This is completely
contradictoryto those> of us who design mechanical trading
systems that give 60-75% winningtrades,There is *absolutely
nothing at all* contradictory with "Von Tharp'stheories" <sic>
and "mechanical trading systems that give 60-75%winning trades."
> have well distributed and defined losing and winning streaks,
andhave> profit as well as stop control measures in
place.> > At the time of the thread i bought and read his
book "Trade yourway to> finacial freedom". It was fun reading
however I proved a number ofhis> assumptions wrong 'for my
trading systems'; my systems aredefinitely not> random.
Where are you getting random systems from? Van Tharp
specificallysays that a system must have a positive expectancy to make
money. Inother words, an edge. Nothing random about
that. Does this mean theconcept of randomness has no valid role
to play? Absolutely not.>Testing several systems over
280,000 bars, with average trade> durations from 2-10 bars his
predictions for winning and losingstreaks for> example was way
off. Huh?>If you are interested you may search the
archives, i> posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as
well as resultscomplete> with charts on this list.>
> Far too little time is spend on system analysis, way too much
timegoes into> driving profits up by optimization. All systems
are different;analyze your> own systems, do not believe that
anybody else can tell you have theybehave> under various market
conditions.Again, you've totally missed the point. I urge
any new tradersreading this thread to read Van Tharp's book because
the conceptsabsolutely work if understood and applied
properly.> > bets regards,>
herman.> -----Original Message----->
From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@xxxx]> Sent: Sunday,
March 07, 2004 4:34 PM> To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: [amibroker] Re:
Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > >
I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and
playedwith> it. The first 2 levels are a
piece of cake. The 3rd level is> difficult, but
in only 3 trials out of 75 I finished it. I
thinkI> have unlocked the secret code for the right
combination of theRisk> ($ per Share) and
Investment level (# Shares to buy.) This is no>
mean feat. There is only one combination which is optimum.
Find> this combination and I would acknowledge that you
are a Master and> you dont need to spend on anything
else. Here are theinstructions> to download
and for the game:> > <A
href="">http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm>
> Position Sizing: The Secrets> of
the Masters Trading Game> Instructions for Level
Three> > This level is similar to level
one. You are given a tradingsystem> that goes
long in the market. Your only choice is to decide
how> much to risk for each trade. That's
it! You simply decide howmuch> to risk.
Overall, level two is an even better system than
levelone> gave you. Over many trials, your
expectancy will be 0.91 as> compared with 0.45 for the
first level.> > Now that you've reached this
level, we recommend that you begin by> saving the
game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have
tostart> again at the beginning of the game if you
don't have a saved gameat> this level.
However, we hope you can get through the game without>
going bankrupt.> > Once again, you will have the
opportunity to make 75 trades. Your> minimum goal
is to make a profit of 50% by the end of the
75trades> so that you can advance to level
four. However, you will> automatically advance to
level three should you increase yourequity> by 500%
from the starting value.> > If you have not made
a profit at the end of 75 trades, you willneed> to
start this level over again. However, if you have made
aprofit> that's less than 50%, you will then have
another 25 trades toreach> your goal of 50% to
advance to the next level.> > If you have a loss
at the end of 75 trades, you will have to start> the
level over again with a 10% penalty (subtracted from
yourprior> starting equity).>
> The probabilities and payoffs for this level are
given in the> statistics section of the game (in the
View menu.) We'd suggest> that you study them
carefully and develop a strategy before you> begin the
game.> > Level Three> >
> Questions & Answers> >
Question:> Why am I not allowed to go short? I
would be right 70% of the> time. Isn't that what
it's all about?> > Response:>
Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be right
by> playing this game. You should be learning the
importance oflarge R-> multiples over being
right. Wait until you get a 30R or 20R trade> in
your favor and see what that does for your account. Or
wouldyou> rather have that against you? If
being right is that important to> you, you'll have your
chance to go against the expectancy in level>
five.> > Question:> What's a
good strategy to play this game?> >
Response:> Figuring out a good strategy and learning
from your mistakes isone> of the skill requirements
of this game. What is your worst-case>
loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by
riskingover> 25% on any trade. Also think
about how many losses you could have> in a row.
You're only right 30% of the time. It's very
likelythat> you might have 9 losses in a row in
your 75 trades. You mighteven> have a streak
of losses as big as 20 or more. You need to play
to> survive that you that you can make money on the 30R
trades that> might come up. With those two
guidelines, design your ownstrategy.> > IITM
also sells products designed to help you with strategy>
development. These include 1) the money management report; 2)
a> newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3)
optimal bet> size software that will be available for
purchase in mid-2002.> >
Question:> Once again, I don't have much information on
any of these> investments or trades. How am I to
know which one's will go up?> >
Response:> You don't know what will go up, that's
true. But you do know the> payoffs and
probabilities of the system you will be trading.
That's> all you need to know to figure out to work
out bet sizing> strategies. Those strategies are
the key to success and this game> is designed to get
you away from predicting the market and into> thinking
about those strategies.> > rgds, Pal>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000"
<cgmv@xxxx>wrote:> > I purchased the
"Developing a winning trading system that fits>
you"> > audio tape course back in December 03 (got
it on sale for $699).> > Just as I've found with
other books and courses its not a>
blueprint> > for making a fortune, but I did come
away learning a handful of> > helpful
things.> >> > I found it a
little pricey since it is an audio taped seminar.>
The> > advertising for it says it's profesionally
edited. I found the> > recording to be of less
quality than I expected. Several times> >
through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask questions or
make> > comments that you cannot hear well,
sometimes even theinstructors> > cannot be heard
for short periods until the microphone picksthem>
> up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a
little> better> > job than
this.> >> > The content is
organized well and pretty informative, altough I>
think> > for much less money you could buy some
books and get pretty much> the> >
same info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade your way
to> > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book
"Computer Analysisof> > the Futures Market"
(Charles was a major part of the audio taped> >
course, I found his input very helpful) you'd get a majority
of> the> > technical
content.> >> > Good
Luck> >> >
GV> >> >>
>> >> > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
<advenosa@xxxx>> wrote:> >
> All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak
performance> > course, but I know someone who did.
He learned a lot abouthimself> > when he went
through it, but I don't think he is using much
ofit> > today. Just like anything else. I don't
think you are using much> of> >
the stuff you learned in college today, either, but it was
good> > training. You pays your money and you takes
your chances, sogoes> the> >
cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his
course> > offerings?> >
>> > > Al V.> >
> ----- Original Message -----> >
> From: Greg> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent:
Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM> >
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
coursesplease> > >> >
>> > > Al and
Phil,> > >> >
> Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses. I
was> wondering> > if you know
anything about his Peak Performance Course for>
Investors> > and Traders. It looks interesting,
although a little pricey. I> know>
> of people paying much more for a personal adviser that
workswith> > them on some of the areas that
Tharp deals with, such as makinga> > business
plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that will> >
psychologically prepare you for trading. I guess I'll have
toread> > through the description of the course
more thoroughly and then> decide>
> if I it would be worthwhile for me.> >
>> > > Thanks again for your
comments,> > >> >
> Greg> >
> ----- Original Message
-----> > > From: Al
Venosa> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41
AM> > > Subject: Re:
[amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp coursesplease>
> >> > >> >
> Hi, Greg:> >
>> > > I took Van's
Advanced Stock Market course about 2.5 years>
ago.> > Don't even know if he still offers it.
Although I enjoyed it> > immensely, especially all
the money management material, themain> >
lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts. Since
I'm> more> > of a mechanical
trading system type of person, I didn't get that>
much> > out of his presentations because a lot of
that sort of trading> > philosophy is discretionary,
or at least subjective judgment. If> > that's your
thing, then you will likely get a lot more out of it>
than> > I did. But I thought the money management
stuff was very> worthwhile.> >
For about $80, you could buy Van's Report on Money
Managementplus> > his book "Trade Your Way to
Financial Freedom" and learn all you>
need> > about money management for a fraction of the
price of hiscourse,> > IMO.>
> >> > >
Regards,> > >> >
> Al Venosa> >
> ----- Original Message
-----> > >
From: Greg> >
> To:
AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004
10:18 AM> > >
Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
coursesplease> > >> >
>> > >
Hi,> > >> >
> I was wondering if anyone here
has taken any of the> courses> >
offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on
there> > helpfulness.> >
>> > >
Thanks,> >
> Greg>
> >> > >> >
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