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Whoa!!! I feel an obligation to correct the record because you and Pal
keep going on and on and clearly neither of you understands this
stuff. More comments below.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> Some time ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's theories.
If i
> recall correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena
You recall incorrectly. On page 42 he specifically states "the markets
are not random."
> and bases all
> his statistical analysis on that. This is completely contradictory
to those
> of us who design mechanical trading systems that give 60-75% winning
trades,
There is *absolutely nothing at all* contradictory with "Von Tharp's
theories" <sic> and "mechanical trading systems that give 60-75%
winning trades."
> have well distributed and defined losing and winning streaks, and
have
> profit as well as stop control measures in place.
>
> At the time of the thread i bought and read his book "Trade your
way to
> finacial freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a number of
his
> assumptions wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems are
definitely not
> random.
Where are you getting random systems from? Van Tharp specifically
says that a system must have a positive expectancy to make money. In
other words, an edge. Nothing random about that. Does this mean the
concept of randomness has no valid role to play? Absolutely not.
>Testing several systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade
> durations from 2-10 bars his predictions for winning and losing
streaks for
> example was way off.
Huh?
>If you are interested you may search the archives, i
> posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well as results
complete
> with charts on this list.
>
> Far too little time is spend on system analysis, way too much time
goes into
> driving profits up by optimization. All systems are different;
analyze your
> own systems, do not believe that anybody else can tell you have they
behave
> under various market conditions.
Again, you've totally missed the point. I urge any new traders
reading this thread to read Van Tharp's book because the concepts
absolutely work if understood and applied properly.
>
> bets regards,
> herman.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@x...]
> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
>
>
> I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and played
with
> it. The first 2 levels are a piece of cake. The 3rd level is
> difficult, but in only 3 trials out of 75 I finished it. I think
I
> have unlocked the secret code for the right combination of the
Risk
> ($ per Share) and Investment level (# Shares to buy.) This is no
> mean feat. There is only one combination which is optimum. Find
> this combination and I would acknowledge that you are a Master and
> you dont need to spend on anything else. Here are the
instructions
> to download and for the game:
>
> http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm
>
> Position Sizing™: The Secrets
> of the Masters Trading Game
> Instructions for Level Three
>
> This level is similar to level one. You are given a trading
system
> that goes long in the market. Your only choice is to decide how
> much to risk for each trade. That's it! You simply decide how
much
> to risk. Overall, level two is an even better system than level
one
> gave you. Over many trials, your expectancy will be 0.91 as
> compared with 0.45 for the first level.
>
> Now that you've reached this level, we recommend that you begin by
> saving the game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have to
start
> again at the beginning of the game if you don't have a saved game
at
> this level. However, we hope you can get through the game without
> going bankrupt.
>
> Once again, you will have the opportunity to make 75 trades. Your
> minimum goal is to make a profit of 50% by the end of the 75
trades
> so that you can advance to level four. However, you will
> automatically advance to level three should you increase your
equity
> by 500% from the starting value.
>
> If you have not made a profit at the end of 75 trades, you will
need
> to start this level over again. However, if you have made a
profit
> that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades to
reach
> your goal of 50% to advance to the next level.
>
> If you have a loss at the end of 75 trades, you will have to start
> the level over again with a 10% penalty (subtracted from your
prior
> starting equity).
>
> The probabilities and payoffs for this level are given in the
> statistics section of the game (in the View menu.) We'd suggest
> that you study them carefully and develop a strategy before you
> begin the game.
>
> Level Three
>
>
> Questions & Answers
>
> Question:
> Why am I not allowed to go short? I would be right 70% of the
> time. Isn't that what it's all about?
>
> Response:
> Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be right by
> playing this game. You should be learning the importance of
large R-
> multiples over being right. Wait until you get a 30R or 20R trade
> in your favor and see what that does for your account. Or would
you
> rather have that against you? If being right is that important to
> you, you'll have your chance to go against the expectancy in level
> five.
>
> Question:
> What's a good strategy to play this game?
>
> Response:
> Figuring out a good strategy and learning from your mistakes is
one
> of the skill requirements of this game. What is your worst-case
> loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by risking
over
> 25% on any trade. Also think about how many losses you could have
> in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's very likely
that
> you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75 trades. You might
even
> have a streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You need to play to
> survive that you that you can make money on the 30R trades that
> might come up. With those two guidelines, design your own
strategy.
>
> IITM also sells products designed to help you with strategy
> development. These include 1) the money management report; 2) a
> newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3) optimal bet
> size software that will be available for purchase in mid-2002.
>
> Question:
> Once again, I don't have much information on any of these
> investments or trades. How am I to know which one's will go up?
>
> Response:
> You don't know what will go up, that's true. But you do know the
> payoffs and probabilities of the system you will be trading.
That's
> all you need to know to figure out to work out bet sizing
> strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and this game
> is designed to get you away from predicting the market and into
> thinking about those strategies.
>
> rgds, Pal
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000" <cgmv@xxxx>
wrote:
> > I purchased the "Developing a winning trading system that fits
> you"
> > audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on sale for $699).
> > Just as I've found with other books and courses its not a
> blueprint
> > for making a fortune, but I did come away learning a handful of
> > helpful things.
> >
> > I found it a little pricey since it is an audio taped seminar.
> The
> > advertising for it says it's profesionally edited. I found the
> > recording to be of less quality than I expected. Several times
> > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask questions or make
> > comments that you cannot hear well, sometimes even the
instructors
> > cannot be heard for short periods until the microphone picks
them
> > up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a little
> better
> > job than this.
> >
> > The content is organized well and pretty informative, altough I
> think
> > for much less money you could buy some books and get pretty much
> the
> > same info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade your way to
> > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book "Computer Analysis
of
> > the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part of the audio taped
> > course, I found his input very helpful) you'd get a majority of
> the
> > technical content.
> >
> > Good Luck
> >
> > GV
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" <advenosa@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak performance
> > course, but I know someone who did. He learned a lot about
himself
> > when he went through it, but I don't think he is using much of
it
> > today. Just like anything else. I don't think you are using much
> of
> > the stuff you learned in college today, either, but it was good
> > training. You pays your money and you takes your chances, so
goes
> the
> > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his course
> > offerings?
> > >
> > > Al V.
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Greg
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
please
> > >
> > >
> > > Al and Phil,
> > >
> > > Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses. I was
> wondering
> > if you know anything about his Peak Performance Course for
> Investors
> > and Traders. It looks interesting, although a little pricey. I
> know
> > of people paying much more for a personal adviser that works
with
> > them on some of the areas that Tharp deals with, such as making
a
> > business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that will
> > psychologically prepare you for trading. I guess I'll have to
read
> > through the description of the course more thoroughly and then
> decide
> > if I it would be worthwhile for me.
> > >
> > > Thanks again for your comments,
> > >
> > > Greg
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Al Venosa
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
please
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi, Greg:
> > >
> > > I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course about 2.5 years
> ago.
> > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I enjoyed it
> > immensely, especially all the money management material, the
main
> > lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts. Since I'm
> more
> > of a mechanical trading system type of person, I didn't get that
> much
> > out of his presentations because a lot of that sort of trading
> > philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjective judgment. If
> > that's your thing, then you will likely get a lot more out of it
> than
> > I did. But I thought the money management stuff was very
> worthwhile.
> > For about $80, you could buy Van's Report on Money Management
plus
> > his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" and learn all you
> need
> > about money management for a fraction of the price of his
course,
> > IMO.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Al Venosa
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Greg
> > > To: AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18 AM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
please
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > > I was wondering if anyone here has taken any of the
> courses
> > offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on there
> > helpfulness.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > Greg
> > >
> > >
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