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Some
time ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's theories. If i recall
correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena and bases all his
statistical analysis on that. This is completely contradictory to those of us
who design mechanical trading systems that give 60-75% winning trades, have well
distributed and defined losing and winning streaks, and have profit as well
as stop control measures in place.
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At the
time of the thread i bought and read his book "Trade your way to finacial
freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a number of his assumptions wrong
'for my trading systems'; my systems are definitely not random. Testing several
systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade durations from 2-10 bars his
predictions for winning and losing streaks for example was way off. If you
are interested you may search the archives, i posted some of my code used to
analyze systems, as well as results complete with charts on this
list.
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Far
too little time is spend on system analysis, way too much time goes into
driving profits up by optimization. All systems are different; analyze your own
systems, do not believe that anybody else can tell you have they behave under
various market conditions.
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bets
regards,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>herman.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Pal Anand
[mailto:palsanand@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34
PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re:
Comments on Van Tharp courses pleaseI downloaded the
free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and played with it. The first 2
levels are a piece of cake. The 3rd level is difficult, but in only
3 trials out of 75 I finished it. I think I have unlocked the secret
code for the right combination of the Risk ($ per Share) and Investment
level (# Shares to buy.) This is no mean feat. There is only
one combination which is optimum. Find this combination and I would
acknowledge that you are a Master and you dont need to spend on anything
else. Here are the instructions to download and for the
game:<A
href="">http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htmPosition
Sizing™: The Secretsof the Masters Trading GameInstructions for Level
ThreeThis level is similar to level one. You are given a trading
system that goes long in the market. Your only choice is to decide
how much to risk for each trade. That's it! You simply decide
how much to risk. Overall, level two is an even better system than
level one gave you. Over many trials, your expectancy will be 0.91
as compared with 0.45 for the first level.Now that you've reached
this level, we recommend that you begin by saving the game. If you
should go bankrupt, you will have to start again at the beginning of the
game if you don't have a saved game at this level. However, we hope
you can get through the game without going bankrupt.Once again,
you will have the opportunity to make 75 trades. Your minimum goal
is to make a profit of 50% by the end of the 75 trades so that you can
advance to level four. However, you will automatically advance to
level three should you increase your equity by 500% from the starting
value.If you have not made a profit at the end of 75 trades, you will
need to start this level over again. However, if you have made a
profit that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades to reach
your goal of 50% to advance to the next level.If you have a loss
at the end of 75 trades, you will have to start the level over again with
a 10% penalty (subtracted from your prior starting equity).The
probabilities and payoffs for this level are given in the statistics
section of the game (in the View menu.) We'd suggest that you study
them carefully and develop a strategy before you begin the
game.Level ThreeQuestions &
AnswersQuestion:Why am I not allowed to go short? I would be
right 70% of the time. Isn't that what it's all
about?Response:Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to
be right by playing this game. You should be learning the importance
of large R-multiples over being right. Wait until you get a 30R or
20R trade in your favor and see what that does for your account. Or
would you rather have that against you? If being right is that
important to you, you'll have your chance to go against the expectancy in
level five.Question:What's a good strategy to play this
game?Response:Figuring out a good strategy and learning from your
mistakes is one of the skill requirements of this game. What is your
worst-case loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by
risking over 25% on any trade. Also think about how many losses you
could have in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's
very likely that you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75 trades.
You might even have a streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You
need to play to survive that you that you can make money on the 30R trades
that might come up. With those two guidelines, design your own
strategy.IITM also sells products designed to help you with strategy
development. These include 1) the money management report; 2) a
newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3) optimal bet size
software that will be available for purchase in
mid-2002.Question:Once again, I don't have much information on any
of these investments or trades. How am I to know which one's will go
up?Response:You don't know what will go up, that's true. But
you do know the payoffs and probabilities of the system you will be
trading. That's all you need to know to figure out to work out bet
sizing strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and this
game is designed to get you away from predicting the market and into
thinking about those strategies. rgds, Pal--- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "relentless1000" <cgmv@xxxx> wrote:> I
purchased the "Developing a winning trading system that fits you" >
audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on sale for $699).
> Just as I've found with other books and courses its not a
blueprint > for making a fortune, but I did come away learning a
handful of > helpful things. > > I found it a little
pricey since it is an audio taped seminar. The > advertising
for it says it's profesionally edited. I found the > recording to
be of less quality than I expected. Several times > through the
12 tapes people in the seminar ask questions or make > comments that
you cannot hear well, sometimes even the instructors > cannot be heard
for short periods until the microphone picks them > up. Not a
major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a little better > job than
this.> > The content is organized well and pretty informative,
altough I think > for much less money you could buy some books and
get pretty much the > same info. I think if you studied Van's
book "Trade your way to > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book
"Computer Analysis of > the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part
of the audio taped > course, I found his input very helpful) you'd get
a majority of the > technical content.> > Good
Luck> > GV > > > > >
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" <advenosa@xxxx>
wrote:> > All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak
performance > course, but I know someone who did. He learned a lot
about himself > when he went through it, but I don't think he is using
much of it > today. Just like anything else. I don't think you are
using much of > the stuff you learned in college today, either, but
it was good > training. You pays your money and you takes your chances,
so goes the > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his
course > offerings? > > > > Al V.>
> ----- Original Message ----- > > From:
Greg > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM>
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
please> > > > > > Al and
Phil,> > > > Thanks for your comments on Van
Tharps' courses. I was wondering > if you know anything about his
Peak Performance Course for Investors > and Traders. It looks
interesting, although a little pricey. I know > of people paying
much more for a personal adviser that works with > them on some of the
areas that Tharp deals with, such as making a > business plan. Seems
like Tharp goes into areas that will > psychologically prepare you for
trading. I guess I'll have to read > through the description of the
course more thoroughly and then decide > if I it would be
worthwhile for me.> > > > Thanks again for
your comments,> > > > Greg>
> ----- Original Message ----- >
> From: Al Venosa >
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41 AM>
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp
courses please> > > > >
> Hi, Greg:> > >
> I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course about
2.5 years ago. > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I
enjoyed it > immensely, especially all the money management material,
the main > lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts. Since
I'm more > of a mechanical trading system type of person, I didn't
get that much > out of his presentations because a lot of that sort
of trading > philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjective
judgment. If > that's your thing, then you will likely get a lot more
out of it than > I did. But I thought the money management stuff
was very worthwhile. > For about $80, you could buy Van's Report on
Money Management plus > his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom"
and learn all you need > about money management for a fraction of
the price of his course, > IMO. > > >
> Regards,> > >
> Al Venosa>
> ----- Original Message ----- >
> From: Greg >
> To: AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18
AM> > Subject: [amibroker]
Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > > > >
> Hi,> > >
> I was wondering if anyone here has
taken any of the courses > offered by Van Tharp. If so could you
please comment on there > helpfulness. > > >
> Thanks,>
> Greg> > > >
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