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DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS wrote:
> Wayne,
> Sorry, I can not agree that the history of the signals is meaningless.
> I need always to check any trading idea from its past behavior.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> > Dimitris,
> >
That is a good policy..... if you accept that past behaviour can throw a
light on future price movements. For most indicators what you say is
true. But I was referring only to this Hurst question. By what you said
in previous posts, in the case of these Hurst Envelopes, the future is
changing the past. An interesting dilemma!
If the future is changing the past, then what are we to gain from
analyzing past actions?
Quote from your prior post-->
"After last Friday Feb20 close you have, for example, a BUY signal to
be executed on the very next Open. You put your money and buy on
Monday, Feb23 and after 10 bars you are informed that you should buy
on Tue Feb17 and, the worse, your Feb20 signal does not exist
anymore !!!!![The signals of the past are ...corrected!!!]
This is pure nonsense and I really wonder what are we talking about."
I too wonder what we are talking about. There is some confusion in my
mind at least. Check out Maggio's site.
<http://www.traderiskmanagement.com>
He offers a charting service for "Sigma Bands".... a series of parallel
lines projected off a centred MA. Check out the chart at the bottom of
the page. There are no buy or sell signals to be found. What we are
talking about is isolating areas of possible low risk trade entries as
explained on that chart. This is done by examining the present
relationship of price to the lines....today. Note too the additional
indicator below the price chart.. some kind of crossing indicator (don't
know what it is). It is obvious to me that the Sigma Bands alone are not
enough to signal trades.... just highlight probabilities. Surely this
must be of use to some?
The "Hurst Dependency Envelopes" as coded by ace are a different but
related area of research. I did not note any buy or sell signals in this
code. The coloured triangles seem to be at the point where the centred
MA ends and the projected line begins, but I may be wrong. I feel the
Sigma Bands are a 'derivative' of the envelopes and that is what I am
trying to solve. I will post any code I come up with.
If we can all get on the same page, I bet the combined talents of all on
this group can find a solution to the 'dilemma'.
Wayne
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