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Yuki,
this expectation [next week announcements] is exactly what will keep
the buyers near the current prices, in the case the big boys apply
moderate short pressure. The analysts try the same thing, to persuade
next day buyers to be there, at -1% or -1.5%. The next TSE session
will be interesting, you should be [and you will be]sensitive enough
to detect if [and how] selling pressure is applied. IMO the DAX
market makers are [till now] net sellers. The same in France [and, of
course, it is more than obvious here in Athens !!]. An ^NDX below -1%
will turn the red light on and will give all the necessary excuses
for you to be negative tomorrow.
This scenario may be true.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Thursday, January 22, 2004, 8:01:07 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Yuki, Some articles make me suspicious today. Example
> DT> http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040121/markets_japan_stocks_17.html They
> DT> all agree *NOW* for the bullish continuation... OK, nobody wants
> DT> to sell below 11,000 but, a -5% retracement from the current
> DT> levels will give more reasons for bearish positions [if TRUE, it
> DT> will cause another -5%]. StochD/RSI divergences are not always
> DT> verified in bullish periods, but a small correction would not be
> DT> that bad. ^NDX similar divergences are not ready yet, I think we
> DT> need one more negative bar [the US lost one bar last Monday...]
> DT> Many people were trying to get rid of their CSCO the last 2h
from
> DT> 28.80 to 28.60, $30 is not that close as it looks like. We shall
> DT> see...
>
> Well, it's been quite a run as I said, but we walked off a lot of
> overbought in the past two sessions. Nothing lasts forever of
> course, and I wouldn't be surprised if a correction looms. But my
> bet would be not before the end of next week, after the earnings get
> into full swing here. I wouldn't be surprised if we got up into the
> 11,300 area, even a bit higher, before a pullback. The next
pullback
> that would keep a bullish momentum going here should come from about
> 11,300 to 11,400, and not pull back too much below 10,900. But
then,
> I've made a career out of being wrong about these guesses. ^^_^^ I
> had no signals today, still some setups for tomorrow, but not that
> many. I expect to be flat over the weekend. The first of February
> might be time to let the air out of the balloon a bit. Still, I
will
> just react to whatever is happening.
>
> My research on seasonality here in Tokyo might suggest that strong
> swing movements develop here on the 1st through the 3rd of every
> calendar month (strong, but maybe only a very few days duration). My
> best system just goes nuts (is excellent) during that period, both
in
> percentage winners and in total return. The bias is even more
> remarkable when you consider that there are NO trades, ever, on
> January 1st, 2nd, or 3rd here, as those three days are all holidays.
>
> Yuki
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