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Hi DIMITRIS,
Thursday, January 22, 2004, 8:01:07 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki, Some articles make me suspicious today. Example
DT> http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040121/markets_japan_stocks_17.html They
DT> all agree *NOW* for the bullish continuation... OK, nobody wants
DT> to sell below 11,000 but, a -5% retracement from the current
DT> levels will give more reasons for bearish positions [if TRUE, it
DT> will cause another -5%]. StochD/RSI divergences are not always
DT> verified in bullish periods, but a small correction would not be
DT> that bad. ^NDX similar divergences are not ready yet, I think we
DT> need one more negative bar [the US lost one bar last Monday...]
DT> Many people were trying to get rid of their CSCO the last 2h from
DT> 28.80 to 28.60, $30 is not that close as it looks like. We shall
DT> see...
Well, it's been quite a run as I said, but we walked off a lot of
overbought in the past two sessions. Nothing lasts forever of
course, and I wouldn't be surprised if a correction looms. But my
bet would be not before the end of next week, after the earnings get
into full swing here. I wouldn't be surprised if we got up into the
11,300 area, even a bit higher, before a pullback. The next pullback
that would keep a bullish momentum going here should come from about
11,300 to 11,400, and not pull back too much below 10,900. But then,
I've made a career out of being wrong about these guesses. ^^_^^ I
had no signals today, still some setups for tomorrow, but not that
many. I expect to be flat over the weekend. The first of February
might be time to let the air out of the balloon a bit. Still, I will
just react to whatever is happening.
My research on seasonality here in Tokyo might suggest that strong
swing movements develop here on the 1st through the 3rd of every
calendar month (strong, but maybe only a very few days duration). My
best system just goes nuts (is excellent) during that period, both in
percentage winners and in total return. The bias is even more
remarkable when you consider that there are NO trades, ever, on
January 1st, 2nd, or 3rd here, as those three days are all holidays.
Yuki
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