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Yuki,
I do not trade currencies.
I know a few things for JYH04. My indicators have a more clear
picture.
One of them is the
// MA cross Prediction
p=3;MAp=MA(C,p);
k=5;MAk=MA(C,k);
TC=(p*(k-1)*MA(C,k-1)-k*(p-1)*MA(C,p-1))/(k-p);
DescCrossPrediction=Cross(TC,C);
AscCrossPrediction=Cross(C,TC);
ExpectMAcross=DescCrossPrediction OR AscCrossPrediction;
Confirmed=Cross(MAk,MAp) OR Cross(MAp,MAk);
UR=2*HHV(ROC(C,1),500);LR=2*LLV(ROC(C,1),500);
Ucoeff=1+UR/100;Lcoeff=1+LR/100;
Filter=TC<Lcoeff*C OR TC>Ucoeff*C;
AddColumn(MAp,"MAp");
AddColumn(MAk,"MAk");
Plot(C,"",41*Filter+1,64);
Plot(MAp,"",5,1);Plot(MAk,"",4,1);
bars=BarsSince(Cross(MAp,MAk) OR Cross(MAk,MAp));
expect=NOT(Filter);
Title=Name()+" , "+
WriteIf(expect AND NOT(expectMAcross) AND NOT(Confirmed) AND bars>3
AND TC<C,"EXPECT a bearish MAcross SOON","")+
WriteIf(expect AND NOT(expectMAcross) AND NOT(Confirmed) AND bars>3
AND TC>C,"EXPECT a bullish MAcross SOON","")+
WriteIf(DescCrossPrediction,"EXPECT a bearish MAcross TOMORROW","")+
WriteIf(AscCrossPrediction,"EXPECT a bullish MAcross TOMORROW","")+
WriteIf(Cross(MAp,MAk)," , Bullish MAcross","")+WriteIf(Cross
(MAk,MAp)," , Bearish MAcross","");
PlotShapes(shapeUpArrow*AscCrossPrediction,colorBrightGreen);
PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow*DescCrossPrediction,colorRed);
The Title, after Jan8 close was : "Expect a bearish MAcross tomorrow".
Not bad at all...
Dimitris Tsokakis
PS:Day by day the ^N225 invH&S is moving to its target. Some 100
units more in the next days and it will confirm the calculations
posted one month ago. Times change...
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Obviously, the two terms might cause a little cognitive dissonance.
I
> will let the gentle reader decide if either applies here in Japan
> after this afternoon's little BoJ shenanigans.
>
> First and foremost, I write not out of any "sour grapes". I was
flat
> when the fecal matter came flying in -- I had gone flat on the open.
> And I was contemplating a 3-day weekend under just those conditions:
> flat.
>
> If any of you are following the Dollar/Yen, you've probably noticed
> it's gone to sleep the past few days. Right around 106.2, give or
> take, most of this week.
>
> At about 2:25 pm today, 35 minutes before the market closed ahead of
> a 3-day weekend, the BoJ decided to ram the dollar up to more than
> 108 in the space of a few minutes. (It's now right back to 107.07
as
> I write 45 minutes later.)
>
> Naturally, this caused a huge, albeit temporary, spike in the ^225
> futures here. Okay, the BoJ certainly has the right to interfere,
> but I smell a rat. After opening higher on the back of the US
> numbers last night, the morning session saw the futures under
> constant attack, actually going negative before the morning session
> was out. In the PM session, however, there was a quick rebound, and
> by about 2:15 pm (maybe 10 minutes before the BoJ) we had gotten
back
> to opening ground on the near futures (about 10,950).
>
> My questions are 1) why this timing, and 2) who else knew about it.
>
> I smell a very fat rat, I'm embarrassed to say.
>
> I really think we need a law forcing the BoJ to act outside of
equity
> trading hours. They could still play games of course, but perhaps
> not as blatantly or as easily. I think a child could reason out
what
> happened today. A child of about age 10.
>
> For those of you in the US, one think to think about perhaps. What
> if Yuki is wrong and the BoJ did this not to aid some market
players,
> but out of a fear that a huge dollar hit is coming? Might there be
> any connection between that fear (if it truly exists) and tonight's
> employment report? It will be interesting to see how the evening
> unfolds. I am uncorking the Chardonney soon. ^^_^^
>
> Yuki
>
> P.S. Pal, I don't know what software on the planet would have gotten
> anyone out of a short dollar position this afternoon without major
> damage. I attach a chart of just what happened (times on the chart
> are US I think -- Power E-Trade Japan via Reuters).
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