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Okay, lunch break.
Up about 2.6 percent basis the Nikkei, but only 1.9 basis the broader
Topix. A bit difficult for me to gauge right now for a couple
reasons:
1) We rolled from the December to the March futures on the ^225
today, and there was a big spread between them on Friday -- the Osaka
Boyz seemed intent on holding the final settlement price down on the
December contract Friday. Also, Reuters via E-Trade has not caught
up with the rollover yet, and at least the morning I can't see the
market depth on the futures, only the inside B&A.
2) The banks are leading, 3 of the 4 'mega' up in the 5 and 6 percent
range. (Maybe Saddam has offered to shore up their Tier 1 capital
with some of the stash from his little footlocker.) ^_- Oddly, this
would be reflected more in the Topix ordinarily, but I am probably
seeing today's futures rollover at work here, too. The brokerages
are also leading, but they have not retouched their opening highs,
while the banks have and then some. Issues like Toyota, Canon, and
Nissan, hugely dependent on the US for income, are trailing the
indices. The dollar seems stuck around 108 or just higher, here,
which may have something to do with that, as well as the weak
consumer sentiment reported Friday in the US. Our big chippers,
Tokyo Electron and Kyocera to name two, are also leaders. This is in
contrast to the US SOX on Friday. So it's a really hard picture for
me to make much sense of today.
Futures opened at 10,500, ticked up once to 510, and fell to 380 by
10:15 am. The bounce took us to a very tight range around 430, which
was capped until the last trade, which was at 450.
The bank rally has been very convincing this morning. This year,
where the banks have gone, the market has followed. Still, they did
not take out key price levels this morning for me. I did nothing,
seeing a violent futures market where both sides seemed to be getting
ambushed with huge bids or offers out of nowhere, and with no
warning.
This is clearly an excuse for some to buy. The question is at what
point this wears off, and how many steps in clear air the coyote can
take. ^^_^^ Basically, a full one percent of the Nikkei's cash rise
today is just catching up with the March futures versus December.
They are trading in lockstep right now, with no premium on the
futures. Yesterday was great news for the crooks in Osaka, who will
burn you every single chance they get.
I'd be nervous on either side right now. Especially here in Tokyo,
where I have just about shut down for the year. We have only 9
trading days left after today, one of them a morning-only session on
the 29th, and one almost surely a very low volume affair next Monday,
which is sandwiched by the Emperor's birthday next Tuesday -- a
holiday here. Then while we are open Christmas day next week, the US
and most of the West won't be of course, and volume will just largely
evaporate. This week is really it, and I'm just not too inclined to
play right now with this news roiling the waters.
The tropics are calling me, I think. ^^_^^
Yuki
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